As of 5:30 p.m. we are still waiting the arrival of the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) with currently no indications of its arrival. This isn’t surprising. Forecast guidance from the Space Weather Prediction Center were indicating a glancing blow as a best-case scenario with the bulk of the CME missing earth. So, we’re either looking at a complete miss or the CME has yet to arrive.
I have been monitoring the data streams all day today anticipating its arrival. As it stands, there has been no increase in low-energy protons which often occurs as a CME approaches. It’s a helpful tool to use as an indicator that an impact is imminent. There has also been no uptick in solar wind speed, solar wind density, or the interplanetary magnetic field – all of which are used to monitor space weather conditions.
So, as I was eluded to with yesterday’s post, I think the odds of Illinois (and even southern Wisconsin for those of you wanting to skip town and head north a bit), seeing the aurora are close to zero especially now that we have a blanket of clouds moving in from the west and southwest (seen below).
As always, if you have any questions, shoot us a message and we’ll be happy to answer.