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(11:30AM - 6/24/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state this morning through Saturday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this morning through Saturday night. Model guidance continues to show this potential, which a very chaotic evolution expected during this period,, with numerous rounds of t'storms likely across the state. Little to no change was needed for today/tonight's forecast. We have upgraded a large portion of the state to a level 2 severe t'storm risk for Saturday.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tonight... A very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for today, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, from this morning through Thursday night. An initial complex of showers and t'storms is spreading across a large portion of the state this morning, and will continue into the afternoon. Another complex and areas of showers and t'storms will move into the state this evening through tonight. The best severe t'storm potential will reside across Western and Southwestern Illinois, as this area will be closer to a better environment supportive of severe t'storms. Elsewhere across the state, the aforementioned complex of showers and t'storms moving through this morning and afternoon will tend to keep the environment for severe t'storms on the low/marginal side. The environment across Western and Southwestern Illinois this afternoon through tonight will feature low instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the low 60's to low 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2) across portions of Western and Southwest Illinois, with a n isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across much of the rest of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the main severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Friday Morning-Friday Night... Once again, another very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for Friday, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, from Friday morning through Friday night. At this point, the current favored scenario is that a large complex of rain and t'storms that moves across the state Thursday night through Friday morning will dissipate and clear much of the state, allowing for clearing and destabilization to occur. This will allow for a new round of showers and t'storms to develop Friday afternoon across Northern and Central Illinois, as another disturbance moves through the area. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 2,500-4,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.5-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks. Saturday Morning-Saturday Night... Severe t'storm potential will once again exist across portions of the state for Saturday. More information regarding this potential will be provided in the next update. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
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(10:00PM - 6/23/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Thursday through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state Thursday morning through Friday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Thursday morning through Friday night. Model guidance has been showing this potential for several days.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tonight... A very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for Thursday, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, from Thursday morning through Thursday night. The best severe t'storm potential will reside across Western and Southwestern Illinois, where a better severe t'storm environment will exist. Elsewhere across the state, continued the aforementioned several clusters of showers and t'storms moving through will tend to keep the environment for severe t'storms on the low/marginal side. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state though. This environment will feature low instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to low 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state, and a widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2) across portions of Western and Southwest Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the main severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Friday Morning-Friday Night... Once again, another very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for Friday, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, from Friday morning through Friday night. At this point, the current favored scenario is that a large complex of rain and t'storms that moves across the state Thursday night through Friday morning will dissipate and clear much of the state, allowing for clearing and destabilization to occur. This would allow for a new round of showers and t'storms to develop Friday afternoon across Northern and Central Illinois, as another disturbance moves through the area. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and lapse rates of 6.0-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the main severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(11:30AM - 6/23/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Thursday through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state Thursday morning through Friday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Thursday morning through Friday night. Model guidance has been showing this potential for several days.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tonight... A very chaotic scenario is expected to unfold across the state for Thursday, with several clusters of showers and t'storms likely to spread across the state, form Thursday morning through Thursday night. The best severe t'storm potential will reside across Western and Southwestern Illinois, where a better severe t'storm environment will exist. Elsewhere across the state, continued the aforementioned several clusters of showers and t'storms moving through will tend to keep the environment for severe t'storms on the low/marginal side. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state though. This environment will feature low instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to low 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state, and a widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2) across portions of Western and Southwest Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the main severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Friday Morning-Friday Night... Severe t'storm potential will exist across portions of the state for Friday. More information regarding this potential will be provided in the next update. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
(4:00PM - 6/20/21) A storm system moving through the region today will bring a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state, from this afternoon through tonight.
Summary... A storm system moved through the Plains last night into this morning, and will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes today, and eventually into the Northeast by Monday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state, this afternoon through tonight. With this update we have made a few significant changes based on real time observations... We have removed the level 3 severe t'storm risk across Northeast and East-Central Illinois. We have also shifted gradients around a bit based on the latest available data.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tonight... Two lead disturbances moved from Iowa and Missouri this morning, and have been moving across Southern Wisconsin and Illinois this afternoon. What was originally expected to happen was there was to be regeneration or new development of showers and t'storms across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. However, as of mid afternoon no development had occurred as of yet. The NWS released a RAOB weather balloon at 2PM, and data from this showed that a cap (warm air aloft) was in place ahead of the two disturbances moving across the state. Thus, that is one of a few reasons the activity had developed, and essentially has shut down the threat with this first wave across the state. Further west along the cold front, showers and t'storms have started to develop across Southern Minnesota, Iowa and Northern Missouri. This activity will spread eastward across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, this evening into tonight. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate to high instability of 1,500-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to low 70's, high shear and strong forcing. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2-3) across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be the main severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
(10:30AM - 6/20/21) A storm system will move through the region today, bringing a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state from this afternoon through tonight.
Summary... A storm system moved through the Plains last night into this morning, and will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes today, and eventually into the Northeast by Monday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event, with real time observations now supporting as well. Little change was needed with this update, as the going forecast is on track.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tonight... Two lead disturbances are moving across Iowa and Missouri this morning, and will move across Illinois this afternoon, and then into Michigan and Indiana by this evening. The regeneration and development of showers and t'storms associated with these disturbances is likely across portions of Northern and Central Illinois this afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across portions of Northern and Central Illinois this afternoon. Further west along the cold front and along any potential outflow boundary from early activity, additional showers and t'storms will develop this afternoon across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest/Western Illinois. This activity will spread eastward across a large portion of the state, late this afternoon through tonight. For both aforementioned waves of severe weather potential... An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate to high instability of 2,500-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, high shear and strong forcing. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a widely scattered to scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2-3) across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be the main severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
(10:00PM - 6/19/21) A storm system will move through the region on Sunday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system will move across the Plains Saturday night, through the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday, and to into the Northeast by Monday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Model guidance has been showing this potential for a few day now, and continues to be in fairly good agreement regarding this event. With this update little to no changes were needed, as the going forecast looks on track.
Forecast...
Sunday Afternoon-Sunday Night... A lead disturbance is expected to move from Iowa and Missouri Sunday morning, across Illinois Sunday afternoon, and then into Michigan Sunday night. The regeneration and development of t'storms associated with this disturbance is likely across Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon. Further west along the cold front and along any potential outflow boundary from early activity, additional showers and t'storms will develop Sunday afternoon across Iowa and Northwest/Western Illinois. This activity will spread eastward across a large portion of the state, late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate to high instability of 2,500-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, high shear and strong forcing. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a widely scattered to scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2-3) across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be the main severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
(12:30PM - 6/19/21) A storm system will move through the region on Sunday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system will move across the Plains Saturday night, through the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday, and to into the Northeast by Monday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Model guidance has been showing this potential for a few day now, and continues to be in fairly good agreement regarding this event. With this update we have upgraded severe t'storm probabilities to a level 3 severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, as confidence is increasing.
Forecast...
Sunday Afternoon-Sunday Night... A lead disturbance is expected to move from Iowa and Missouri Sunday morning, across Illinois Sunday afternoon, and then into Michigan Sunday night. The regeneration and development of t'storms associated with this disturbance is likely across Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon. Further west along the cold front and along any potential outflow boundary from early activity, additional showers and t'storms will develop Sunday afternoon across Iowa and Northwest/Western Illinois. This activity will spread eastward across a large portion of the state, late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate to high instability of 2,500-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, high shear and strong forcing. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a widely scattered to scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2-3) across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be the main severe weather threats. 
JP
(11:45AM - 6/19/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through tonight, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through tonight.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will continue to eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through tonight. With this update...Little to no change was needed for the forecast for today-tonight.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tonight... Another disturbance set to move through the area today, and there is frontal boundary slowly pushing southward across the state, and an outflow boundary in place across Western and Southwestern Illinois. All of this will provide focus for scattered shower and t'storms development this afternoon across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. This activity will spread southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, this afternoon through late tonight. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate to high instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to low 70's, good shear, good forcing, and high lapse rates of 6.0-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across the heart of the state, and a widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 2) across portions of Southwest and Southern Illinois.. Damaging winds and hail will be the main severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
Recap
Thursday Evening-Friday Morning... A large complex of rain and t'storms developed across Western Wisconsin, Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa Thursday evening. This complex featured numerous severe t'storms Thursday evening and early Thursday night across Western and Central Wisconsin and Southern Minnesota. This complex then pushed southeastward across Central and Southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan, Thursday night into Friday early morning. While there were no severe t'storms that occurred while traversing Northern Illinois with this complex Thursday night and early Friday morning, some areas received strong non-severe winds of 45-55MPH, including across the Chicago metro area. Friday Afternoon-Early Saturday Morning... A few isolated severe t'storms occurred Friday afternoon and evening across portions of Central Illinois, but the main focus was Friday night. Scattered severe t'storms developed early Friday night across Southern Iowa into Western Illinois. This activity grew upscale into a large complex, which pushed southeastward across the heart of the state Friday night into early Saturday morning. Some of these t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds, large hail and potentially an isolated tornado southeast of Galesburg.
JP
(11:45PM - 6/18/21) A storm system will move through the region on Sunday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state.
Summary... . A storm system will move across the Plains Saturday night, through the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday, and to into the Northeast by Monday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to a large portion of the state for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Model guidance has been showing this potential for a few day now, and potential has been increasing as we approach the event.
Forecast...
Sunday Afternoon-Sunday Night... A lead disturbance is expected to move from Iowa and Missouri Sunday morning, across Illinois Sunday afternoon, and then into Michigan Sunday night. The development of t'storms associated with this disturbance is possible across Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon. This activity would then spread northeast across Northern Illinois Sunday afternoon. Further west along the cold front, additional showers and t'storms will develop Sunday afternoon. This activity will spread eastward across a large portion of the state, late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place. This environment will feature moderate to high instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, high shear and strong forcing. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (level 1-2) across the heart of the state. Damaging winds, large and and a few tornadoes will be the main severe weather threats. 
JP
(11:30PM - 6/18/20) A period of hot and humid conditions has settled into portions of the region, and will affect portions of the state through Sunday.
Summary.... A strong ridge has been in place across the Southwestern US for the past several days, leading to very hot and record temperatures out that way. An extension of this ridge is briefly extending into the Plains for this period of time, which is allowing hot and humid conditions to affect portions of Central and Southern Illinois through Sunday.
Forecast For Next Two Days...
Saturday, June 19th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the low to upper 90's across Southwest and Southern Illinois, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60's to upper 70's. Peak heat index values will be in the mid 90's to low 100's. Elsewhere the heat will be tempered, with high temps expected to be in the mid 80's to low 90's across the rest of the state. Sunday, June 20th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the low to upper 90's across Southwest Illinois, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60's to mid 70's. Peak heat index values will be in the mid 90's to low 100's. Elsewhere the heat will be tempered, with high temps expected to be in the mid 80's to low 90's across the rest of the state.
Recap Summary...
Thursday, June 17th Recap... High temperatures topped out in the low to mid 90's across Western and Southwestern Illinois, and low temps in the low to upper 60's. Peak heat index values were in the low to upper 90's. Elsewhere across the state, high temps were in the mid 80's to low 90's. Friday, June 18th Recap... High temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 90's across Central and Southern Illinois, and low temps in the low 70's to low 80's. Peak heat index values were in the upper 90's to mid 100's. Elsewhere across the state, high temps were in the upper 80's to low 90's. 
JP
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