Even though we are entering the middle of April, Mother Nature will do what she want and even though the last potential April snow maker missed us here in Illinois to the north, the pattern remains active and we will have enough chance for some rare April snow across the Midwest and Illinois...
I dig into the details of this system below, including when any snow would arrive, will it stick and how much and how long will it last?
The main player in this snow potential with be the fairly impressive upper level low that is currently over the southern Four Corners region but will eventually emerge into the southern plains, before turning northeast and taking aim on us in the Midwest. The loop below shows this nicely as it runs from late this afternoon through 7pm on Sunday evening, showing the overall track of our system of interest.
The available moisture and moisture feed with this system will be very impressive with an open Gulf of Mexico and favorable trajectories off the Gulf to advect that moisture northward. This is going to lead to a lot of precipitation on both the cold side to the northwest of the surface low and many thunderstorms in the warm sector across the southern Mississippi Valley.
With the low levels looking to be sufficiently cold enough the further north you go across the state, model guidance continues to suggest that there will be a band of snow on the northwest side, as you can see below. Even so, this remains a very tricky forecast given we are now into the middle of April and it is just so hard to get snow to stick and accumulate. As things look now, rain would changeover to snow early Sunday morning across portions of western and northern Illinois as precipitation expands north along with the area of low pressure tracking northeast. Snow would then continue into and through the afternoon hours, especially across portions of northern Illinois with model guidance continuing to hint at at least a few inches possible in some areas. Depending on the exact speed of the system, snow showers, potentially mixing with rain, could last into the evening hours across northern Illinois.
Below is our initial thought of expected snowfall accumulations across the state and this will most likely undergo at least a few changes between now and early Sunday morning so stay tuned for continued updates!