Over the last couple of days numerical model guidance has been waffling back and forth on solutions regarding a weather system developing in the plains late this coming weekend and coming northeast early next week. We are still seeing differences among model guidance but over the last day or so, we have seen some more consistency regarding a system developing on both operational and ensemble guidance. I dig into more below and what you need to know at this juncture...

Up to about this Saturday evening, model guidance is in agreement on a weather system coming across the northern Pacific Ocean and then coming ashore the west coast, as you can see in the model image below. What happens after that is still in question at this time. This system should then come east but the exact track and strength while that occurs remains to be seen and this in turn leaves question marks on if and how it will affect us here in Illinois early next week. 

By Sunday evening, ensemble model guidance is showing a good amount of members developing areas of low pressure across the southern high plains. But beyond that, the track and strength of those developing systems is again in question and the track will play a big role is what will happen across Illinois. Usually in these cases, the exact track isn't determined for sure until we get closer to the event. All we are doing at this range is mentioning the potential of a system and one that if things go right, could become significant with reasons stating why below....

One thing this potential system will have going for it is the Gulf of Mexico will be "wide open for business", meaning that the trajectories off the Gulf will be very favorable for transporting/advecting moisture northward which in turn with a stronger system can lead to more overall precipitation amounts. The brighter the colors on the image below the more "total heat" there is or pretty much combining heat and moisture into one. 

The thing to take away from this initial article is that there is the **potential** for a winter system early next week (Mon/Tue) and if things fall right, the **possibility** that it develops into a sizable winter storm across portions of the Midwest and potentially Illinois as well. Lots of solutions are on the table at this juncture ranging from:
-A large winter storm to affect a good chunk of the state with significant snow accumulations.
-Only a small part of the state gets hit but ends up with significant snow accumulations.
- A weak weather system that slides harmlessly to the south of Illinois and hardly any sticking snow falls in Illinois. 

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(8:00PM - 12/10/19) A weak and fast moving disturbance will bring a period of light snow to portions of Northern and Central Illinois, very late tonight through midday Wednesday.

An area of light snow will spread into Northwest Illinois very late tonight, between 2-3AM. this area of light snow will then spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois through Wednesday morning, slowly ending from west to east across these areas during the mid morning to midday time-frame. Minor snowfall accumulation of a dusting to 1" is possible across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Locally higher amounts of 1-2" are possible towards the Quad Cities area.

​Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event.

JP

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It continues to look like winter and a cold snap will return to the Midwest next week but model guidance continues to differ on exact solutions regarding how long it will last along with just how cold it will get....I dig into a brief update on the latest thinking below...

Numerical model guidance is in agreement on a weather system of some fashion developing and moving through portions of the Midwest early next week, most likely leading to another day of above normal temperatures on Monday across Illinois. It is what transpires after that which is in question. A trough should develop over the northern U.S. into our region but the strength and depth of that will determine just how cold we get next week. You can see the evolution of this below. This loop runs from Sunday night through next Tuesday night, showing the trough situating itself over our region. 

Just for some basic understanding of meteorology, below is a representation of a trough and a ridge and the shape of them usually. As you can see in the above loop, a trough is the main feature. Usually active weather and below normal temperatures are associated with a trough while more quiet and dry weather and above normal temperatures are associated with a ridge. 

Looking at actual surface temperatures from just *ONE* model (saying this as things could change), we can see the very cold air invading the state of Illinois late Monday night and Tuesday morning behind the cold frontal passage. This model continues to say that areas across the northern part of the state could get well into the single digits on Wednesday morning with teens likely for the rest. 

With several things remaining in question regarding this shot of cold air, expect more updates in the future as we get closer to next week....

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We are still 6-7 days away from this but medium range model guidance at this juncture continues to show the return of winter by the middle of next week with some pretty cold air coming down from Canada into the Midwest. Models are still differing though on the strength of this cold shot but as of now, a period of below normal to well below normal temperatures is looking likely during this time period, potentially extending beyond Wednesday. Some early thoughts and images below.....

The loop below runs from next Monday afternoon into next Thursday morning. As mentioned above, we are still a week or so away from this so things can and probably will change some so take exact values at a grain of salt at this time....but the overall large scale pattern being modeled supports at least below normal temperatures into the Midwest for the middle of next week. You can see some pretty cold air coming down into the region by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Stay tuned for continued updates on this the rest of this week and this coming weekend as Canada looks to unload its cold air on us in the future....

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(9:15PM - 11/27/19) Thanksgiving is upon us...While Thursday will be a dreary day overall across the state, no significant weather is expected. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected much of the day across the state. There is the chance for a few showers to move into Western and Southwest Illinois by evening, with more light/scattered precipitation possible across the state Thursday night. High temperatures will generally range from the upper 30's across Northern Illinois, to around 40 across Central Illinois, and the low to mid 40's across Southern Illinois.

Below is the Thanksgiving forecast.

​JP

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(6:00 AM - 11/27/19) A storm system moving across the region today will continue to bring an extended period of high winds to the state.

The high winds during this period will be a product of a quickly organizing and strengthening storm system, and associated strong jet streak aloft. 850mb winds aloft of 45-70kts is likely, with mixing potentially up near that level at times, which correlates to the expected high winds at the surface. ​

Winds increased across Central and Southern Illinois Tuesday evening, with wind gusts of 20-40mph common across these areas. Wind gusts of 20-40mph continued into last night. A period of increased wind gusts accompanied an area of showers and t'storms overnight during the 11PM-4AM time-frame across the state. Wind gusts with this activity were in the 40-60mph range for some areas. This morning winds will increase even more across much of the state. This will occur following the cold front passage, on the backside of the storm system. Wind gusts during this time will be in the 45-60mph range. Isolated higher wind gusts in excess of 60mph will be possible as well across Northern and Central Illinois. Winds will gradually diminish late Wednesday afternoon and evening across the state.

Due to the expected high wind gusts and prolonged nature, some tree damage and power outages will be possible across the state.

Below is the TAM high wind forecast for this event.

JP

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(9:15PM - 11/26/19) A storm system moving across the region tonight and Wednesday will bring an extended period of high winds to the state.

The high winds during this period will be a product of a quickly organizing and strengthening storm system, and associated strong jet streak aloft. 850mb winds aloft of 45-70kts is likely, with mixing potentially up near that level at times, which correlates to the expected high winds at the surface. ​

Winds have slowly been increasing across Central and Southern Illinois this evening, with wind gusts of 20-40mph now common across these areas. Wind gusts of 20-40mph will continue to be possible across the state tonight. A period of increased wind gusts will likely accompany an area of showers and t'storms overnight during the 11PM-4AM time-frame tonight across the state. Wind gusts with this activity will likely be in the 40-60mph range. Late tonight and early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, winds will increase even more. This will occur following the cold front passage, on the backside of the storm system. Wind gusts during this time will be in the 45-60mph range. Isolated higher wind gusts in excess of 60mph will be possible as well across Northern and Central Illinois. Winds will gradually diminish late Wednesday afternoon and evening across the state.

Due to the expected high wind gusts and prolonged nature, some tree damage and power outages will be possible across the state.

Below is the TAM high wind forecast for this event.

​​JP

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(8:00PM - 11/26/19) The same storm system that will bring high winds to the state tonight and Wednesday, will also bring a low end threat for strong and severe t'storms to the state tonight into early Wednesday morning.

As expected, broken lines of showers and t'storms have developed along and ahead of a cold front across Missouri this evening. This activity is expected to rapidly push northeastward, and will affect the state overnight. This activity will likely sweep northeastward across the state between an 11PM-4AM time-frame. An environment will be in place featuring 45-60 degree dew points and <1,000 J/KG CAPE. On the other end of the spectrum, shear will be on the high end of the scale. In other words, this is a low moisture/instability and high shear setup. By no means does this look like a significant or widespread severe weather event. However, given the time of year and holiday travel will be underway for some, it is noteworthy. There is a very low end threat for severe t'storms across the state during this period, with damaging/high winds being the greatest threat with this activity. High winds are already expected outside of showers and t'storms, but this activity could bring enhanced wind potential. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given there will be some instability in place, coupled with the strong shear.

​Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event.

JP

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(12:30PM - 11/26/19) A storm system is expected to move across the region tonight and Wednesday, which will bring an extended period of high winds to the state.

The high winds during this period will be a product of a quickly organizing and strengthening storm system, and associated strong jet streak aloft. 850mb winds aloft of 45-70kts is likely, with mixing potentially up near that level at times, which correlates to the expected high winds at the surface. ​

Winds will increase across the state this evening and tonight, as the storm system enters the region. Wind gusts will increase to 20-40mph across the state during this time. A period of increased wind gusts will likely accompany showers and t'storms overnight tonight across the state. Wind gusts with this activity will likely be 40-60mph. Late tonight into early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, winds will increase even more. This will occur following the cold front passage, on the backside of the storm system. Wind gusts during this time will be in the 45-60mph range. Isolated higher wind gusts in excess of 60mph will be possible as well. Winds will gradually diminish late Wednesday afternoon and evening across the state.

Due to the expected high wind gusts and prolonged nature, some tree damage and power outages will be possible across the state.

Below is the TAM high wind forecast for this event.

​JP

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(11:30AM - 11/26/19) The same storm system that will bring high winds to the state tonight and Wednesday, will also bring a low end threat for strong and severe t'storms to the state this evening into early Wednesday morning.

With this update we have expanded the low end chance for severe t'storms to the rest of the state. Otherwise, no additional changes were needed from the previous update.

​One or more broken lines of showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front, across portions of Iowa and Missouri, later this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this activity an environment will be in place featuring 50-60 degree dew points and <1,000 J/KG CAPE. On the other end of the spectrum, shear will be on the high end of the scale. In other words, this is a low moisture/instability and high shear setup. As the broken lines of showers and t'storms race northeastward across the state tonight, isolated strong to severe t'storms will be possible. By no means does this look like a significant or widespread severe weather event. However, given the time of year and holiday travel will be underway for some, it is noteworthy. Damaging/high winds will be the greatest threat with this activity. High winds are already expected outside of showers and t'storms, but this activity could bring enhanced wind potential. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given there will be some instability in place, coupled with the strong shear. It is possible that portions of the state may need to be upgraded to higher severe probabilities in later updates.


Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event.

​JP

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