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(10:30AM - 5/8/21) A storm system will move through the region today and Sunday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk, windy conditions, heavy rainfall and snow to portions of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out across the Plains on today, then pushing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This storm system will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk, windy conditions, heavy rainfall and snow to portions of the state. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement with all aspects of this storm system, with little to no change needed with this update.
Forecast...
...Severe T'Storm Risk... Saturday Night-Sunday Morning: A complex of rain and t'storms that will be moving across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Missouri Saturday evening, is expected to southeastward across Central and Southern Illinois, overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Ahead of this activity, elevated instability of 500-1,500J/KG and lapse rates of 7-9C will be advecting in. Combined with decent shear and decent forcing, this will allow for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk to be possible across portion of far Western, far Southwest and far Southern Illinois...Overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats. Sunday Morning-Sunday Evening: In the wake of early day activity, some clearing and destabilization may occurring ahead of the main storm system and trailing cold front. Additional scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along this cold front, across portions of Southern Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas. This activity will then push eastward, affecting Southern Illinois, Sunday afternoon and early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 56-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible. ...Windy Conditions... High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 45-70KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support wind gusts of 30-45MPH across much of the state, Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly across Northern and Central Illinois, and southerly across Southern Illinois. If that is not enough, a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois is expected to receive 1-2" of rainfall with this storm system. This is much needed rainfall, given a large portion of the state is seeing drought conditions. In addition to the rain, portions of Northern Illinois may see a rain/snow mix or a period of all snow, later tonight on into early Sunday morning. Some areas could see a dusting of snow. Below are the severe t'storm and wind forecasts for this event. 
JP
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(11:30PM - 5/7/21) A storm system will move through the region Saturday and Sunday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state and windy conditions to much of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out across the Plains on Saturday, then pushing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This storm system will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state and windy conditions to much of the state. Model guidance has been showing this potential, and is in decent agreement regarding the particular aspects.
Forecast...
...Severe T'Storm Risk... Saturday Night-Sunday Morning: A complex of rain and t'storms that will be moving across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Missouri Saturday evening, is expected to southeastward across Central and Southern Illinois, overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Ahead of this activity, elevated instability of 500-1,500J/KG and lapse rates of 7-9C will be advecting in. Combined with decent shear and decent forcing, this will allow for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk to be possible across portion of far Western, far Southwest and far Southern Illinois...Overnight Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats. Sunday Morning-Sunday Evening: In the wake of early day activity, some clearing and destabilization may occurring ahead of the main storm system and trailing cold front. Additional scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along this cold front, across portions of Southern Illinois, Missouri and Arkansas. This activity will then push eastward, affecting Southern Illinois, Sunday afternoon and early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 58-64, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, late Sunday morning through early Sunday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible. ...Windy Conditions... High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 45-70KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support wind gusts of 30-45MPH across much of the state, Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly across Northern and Central Illinois, and southerly across Southern Illinois. Below are the severe t'storm and wind forecasts for this event.
JP
(11:00AM - 5/6/21) A fast moving disturbance pushing through the region today will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late this morning through early this evening.
Summary... A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley today. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late this morning through early this evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement regarding this potential with real time observations supporting, thus no significant changes were needed with this update.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms have developed this morning across portions of Central and Southwestern Illinois and Missouri. This activity is expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late this morning through early this evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 8.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, from late this morning through early this evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(8:30PM - 5/5/21) A fast moving disturbance will move through the region on Thursday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening.
Summary... A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to the southern half of the state, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall good agreement regarding this potential, with no significant changes needed with this update.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois and Missouri, mid Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. This activity is then expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday afternoon into early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 7.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 5/5/21) A fast moving disturbance will move through the region on Thursday, bringing a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to portions of Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening.
Summary... A disturbance will quickly push across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday. This disturbance will bring a low end/isolated severe t'storm risk to Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Model guidance is in overall good agreement regarding this potential.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois and Missouri, mid Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. This activity is then expected to quickly sweep southeastward across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday afternoon into early evening. A marginal environment featuring instability of 250-1,000J/KG, dew points of 49-55, lapse rates of 7.5-9C, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, late Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. Hail is the main threat, though an isolated occurrence of damaging winds is possible. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(9:00PM - 5/3/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state tonight through Tuesday evening.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will continue to eject out through the Central US, moving through the region through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state, tonight through Tuesday evening. Model guidance and real time observations support the going forecast.
Forecast...
Tonight-Tuesday Morning... A broken line of scattered showers and t'storms currently sits in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. This line will continue to push southeast for the next several hours, posing some severe risk. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms that is ongoing across Oklahoma and Texas will lift northeastward overnight. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, tonight through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, tonight through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening... In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An environment featuring instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points of 57-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned marginal environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Summary...
This Afternoon-This Evening... A broken line of scattered showers and t'storm spread across much of Central Illinois this afternoon and evening, with several severe t'storms and even a few brief tornadoes having occurred.
JP
(11:00AM - 5/3/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region today through Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region today through Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, this afternoon through Tuesday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event. No significant changes were needed with this update.
Forecast...
This Afternoon-Tuesday Morning... Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest and Western Illinois this afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. An environment featuring instability of 500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned decent environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, this evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening... In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An environment featuring instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points of 57-63, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned marginal environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(10:00PM - 5/2/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday and Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday and Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event. With this update we have upgraded portions of Northwest and West-Central Illinois to a level 2 severe t'storm risk, for widely scattered severe t'storm potential...Elsewhere, no changes were needed.
Forecast...
Monday Afternoon-Tuesday Morning... Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned good environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Tuesday Morning-Tuesday Evening... In the wake of early day activity and as another disturbance moves through the region, a new round of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This activity will then spread eastward across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points of 65-72, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated to widely scattered (level 1-2) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(10:45AM - 5/2/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday into Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Model guidance continues to be in overall agreement regarding this event. With this update we have upgraded the southern portion of the state to a level 2 severe t'storm risk, for widely scattered severe t'storm potential...Elsewhere, no changes were needed.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45PM - 5/1/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Summary... Multiple disturbances will eject out through the Central US, moving through the region Monday into Tuesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Model guidance has been showing this potential for a few days, and has been in decent agreement.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across Iowa, Missouri and Northwest Illinois Monday afternoon, associated a disturbance moving through. This activity will then spread eastward across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 59-66, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, Monday afternoon through Monday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolates tornado will be the main threats. As another disturbance moves through the region, another round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop across Missouri, Arkansas and Southern Illinois Monday evening. This activity will then spread northeastward across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 65-71, good forcing and good shear is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolates tornado will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
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