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(7:15PM - 6/17/19) A disturbance moving through the region will bring another round of heavy rain and flood potential to portions of the state, Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
Areas of rain and t'storms will spread into portions of Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning. This activity will then spread across the rest of the state, continuing in waves across through the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, before ending from west to east early Thursday morning. Given moderate to high moisture content in the atmosphere, characterized by PWAT values of upwards of 1.75-2.25", heavy rainfall is likely with this activity. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" are possible in an axis across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. At this time model guidance is in disagreement on where exactly this heaviest axis will set up. However, at this time it looks like to set up in the vicinity of areas hard hit by heavy rain and flooding this past weekend. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A low to moderate flood threat will exist across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Below is our first TAM flood forecast for Wed morning to Thursday morning. 
JP
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(7:00PM - 6/17/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night... A few isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will move into Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, as an approaching disturbance moves in. Ahead of this disturbance, an environment featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place during the afternoon across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois be. The development of additional showers and t'storms are likely during the afternoon across these areas. This activity will then push eastward across much of Central and Southern Illinois into early Thursday night. This activity will pose a widely scattered severe t'storm threat, with all modes of severe weather being possible. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities is possible if future updates, pending better agreement in model guidance and higher confidence in clearing and destabilization. Additionally, scattered showers and t'storms will also be likely across much of Northern Illinois, during the day and night on Wednesday. No severe t'storms are expected with this activity. Below is our first TAM severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/night. 
JP
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(1:00PM - 6/17/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through tonight.
Saturday Recap... Areas of showers and t’storms pushed across much of the state Saturday morning into the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, additional development of scattered showers and t’storms occurred across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity then moved across much of the state Saturday evening into night. Some of this activity was severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred.
Sunday recap...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms occurred across portions of Northern and Southern Illinois Saturday morning into early afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, additional development of scattered showers and t'storms occurred. This activity spread across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois from Sunday afternoon into night. Some of this activity was severe, with wind and hail being the main threats seen. Today into tonight... In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is has occurred across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push eastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for today/tonight. 
JP
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(9:00M - 6/16/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Monday.
Saturday Recap... Areas of showers and t’storms pushed across much of the state Saturday morning into the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, additional development of scattered showers and t’storms occurred across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity then moved across much of the state Saturday evening into night. Some of this activity was severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred.
Today into tonight...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms have been ongoing across portions of Southern Illinois this evening, and will continue into tonight. Monday into Monday night... A few isolated showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Southern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push eastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into Monday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Monday/Night. 
JP
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(10:45AM - 6/16/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Monday.
Saturday Recap... Areas of showers and t’storms pushed across much of the state Saturday morning into the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, additional development of scattered showers and t’storms occurred across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity then moved across much of the state Saturday evening into night. Some of this activity was severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred.
Today into tonight...
A few areas of isolated showers and t’storms have been ongoing across portions of Northern and Southern Illinois this morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. Monday into Monday night... A few areas of isolated to scattered showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into Monday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Sunday/Night and Monday/Night. 
JP
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(12:45AM - 6/16/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Monday.
Tonight... Areas of showers and t’storms have been ongoing across much of the state tonight. Some of this activity across Central and Southern Illinois has been severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred. Areas of showers and t'storms will persist across the state overnight, with a continued isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A few areas of isolated showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Northern and Southern Illinois Sunday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into Sunday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. Monday into Monday night... A few areas of isolated to scattered showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-northeastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into Monday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Sunday/Night and Monday/Night. 
JP
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(10:45AM - 6/15/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state today and Sunday.
Today into Tonight... Widespread areas of showers and t'storms have been ongoing across the state this morning, with this activity likely continuing into the afternoon for many areas. In the wake of early activity, some clearing and destabilization will occur. As the main disturbance approaches during the afternoon, new scattered shower and t'storm development is likely across Iowa, Missouri, Central and Southern Illinois. This activity will push east-southeastward across much of the state during the afternoon and on into tonight. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture, and good shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across much of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A few areas of isolated showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Northern and Southern Illinois Sunday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push eastward across these areas into Sunday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for today/tonight and Sunday/night. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900
(1:45AM - 6/15/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday into Saturday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing across the state Saturday morning, likely continuing into the afternoon for some areas. In the wake of early activity, some clearing and destabilization will occur. As the main disturbance approaches during the afternoon, new scattered shower and t'storm development is likely across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity will push east-southeastward across much of the state during the afternoon and on into Saturday night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture, and good shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across much of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more and earlier clearing and more destabilization look likely across the risk area, an upgrade is severe t'storm probabilities may be needed for some areas in future updates.
Sunday into Sunday night...
A few areas of isolated showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push east-southeastward across these areas into Sunday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Saturday/night and Sunday/night. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900
(1:15PM - 6/14/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday into Saturday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing across the state Saturday morning. In the wake of early activity, some clearing and destabilization will occur. As the main disturbance approaches during the afternoon, new scattered shower and t'storm development is likely across Iowa, Missouri, Northwest and Western Illinois. This activity will push east-southeastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon and on into Saturday night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, good moisture, and good shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more and earlier clearing and more destabilization look likely across the risk area, an upgrade is severe t'storm probabilities may be needed in future updates. A severe t'storm threat will also continue into Sunday...This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches. Below is our first TAM severe t’storm forecast for Saturday/night. 
JP
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CoThe NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Illinois Northern and East Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon along a cold front, sagging southward across the watch area. Scattered strong to severe storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles east southeast of Mattoon IL to 60 miles southwest of Kirksville MO. Radar analysis (as of 3pm) shows severe thunderstorms starting to develop north of the i-72 corridor and across northern Missouri. These storms are expected to move southeast through central and southern Illinois over the remainder of the day. 
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