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(11:45AM - 6/20/19) A series of disturbances pushing through the region, along with a meandering frontal boundary, will bring the threat for repeated rounds of severe t'storms to the state Friday through Monday.
Friday morning-Friday night... Several clusters of rain and t'storms are expected to move across much of the state Friday morning through Friday night. While much of the state will be impacted by this activity, of focus will be Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a warm front expected to be sitting across these areas. Near and south of the warm front, an environment in place featuring high instability, high moisture and good shear is expected. This will promote a widely scattered severe t'storm threat across a good portion of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats. It is possible an upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities will be needed in future updates. A severe t’storm threat will likely continue into Saturday-Monday as well for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches. Below is our TAM severe t'storm forecast for Friday/night. 
JP
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(11:30AM - 6/20/19) A series of disturbances pushing through the region, along with a meandering frontal boundary, will bring the threat for repeated rounds of heavy rain and flooding to the state Friday through Monday.
No changes needed this update, thus will continue with previous forecast... Multiple rounds of rain and t'storms are likely across the state Friday through Monday. An atmosphere featuring high moisture content, characterized by dew points in the 70-80F range and PWATS of 1.50-2.25", will also support the heavy rain threat. At this point there does not appear to be one single area that will get hit the hardest, as the meandering front with disturbances riding through will allow for more widespread affects. With that said, widespread rainfall totals during the period will likely range upwards of 1-3" for many areas, with locally higher amounts are possible. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A moderate flood threat will exist across much of the state. Below is our TAM flood forecast for Friday-Monday. 
JP
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(8:00PM - 6/19/19) A series of disturbances pushing through the region, along with a meandering frontal boundary, will bring the threat for repeated rounds of severe t'storms to the state Friday through Monday.
Friday morning-Friday night... A few isolated showers and t'storms may push across the state Friday morning. A warm front is expected to be located across Central Illinois, with a disturbance moving in from the west. Re-generation of morning activity and development of new scattered showers and t'storms is likely during the afternoon across Iowa, Missouri, Central and Southern Illinois. This activity is expected to grow upscale into clusters, pushing east-southeastward across the heart of the state through Friday night. An environment in place featuring high instability, high moisture and good shear is expected. This will promote a widely scattered severe t'storm threat across a good portion of the state. It is possible an upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities will be needed in future updates, as coverage and location of the highest concentration of potential comes into better view. A severe t’storm threat will likely continue into Saturday-Monday as well for portions of the state. This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches. Below is our TAM severe t'storm forecast for Friday/night. 
JP
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(7:00PM - 6/19/19) A series of disturbances pushing through the region, along with a meandering frontal boundary, will bring the threat for repeated rounds of heavy rain and flooding to the state Friday through Monday.
Multiple rounds of rain and t'storms are likely across the state Friday through Monday. An atmosphere featuring high moisture content, characterized by dew points in the 70-80F range and PWATS of 1.50-2.25", will also support the heavy rain threat. At this point there does not appear to be one single area that will get hit the hardest, as the meandering front with disturbances riding through will allow for more widespread affects. With that said, widespread rainfall totals during the period will likely range upwards of 1-3" for many areas, except for possibly far Southern Illinois...Locally higher amounts are possible. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A moderate flood threat will exist across much of the state. Below is our TAM flood forecast for Friday-Monday. 
JP
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(11:45AM - 6/19/19) A disturbance moving through the region will bring another round of heavy rain and flood potential to portions of the state, through Thursday morning.
Areas of rain and t'storms have begun to spread across the state this morning. This activity will continue in waves across the state through the day today and into tonight, before ending from west to east late tonight or early Thursday morning. Given moderate to high moisture content in the atmosphere, characterized by PWAT values of upwards of 1.50-2.25", heavy rainfall is likely with this activity. Widespread rainfall totals upwards of 1-3" are possible in the heaviest axis across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, with locally higher amounts possible. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A low to moderate flood threat will exist across much of the state. In this update we have expanded low and moderate flood probabilities, as model guidance has come in depicting the potential for a further north expansion of heavier rainfall totals. Below is our updated TAM flood forecast through Thursday morning. 
JP
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(11:30AM - 6/19/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state today and tonight.
Today morning into tonight... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms have spread across the state this morning, with activity expected to continue in waves across the state, through the day and into tonight. Between some of this aforementioned activity and ahead of the approaching disturbance, some clearing and destabilization will occur across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. An environment featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas. The development of additional showers and t'storms are likely during the afternoon across Missouri, Central and Southern Illinois. This activity will then push eastward across much of Central and Southern Illinois into tonight. This activity will pose an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat, with all modes of severe weather being possible. Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight. 
JP
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(9:00PM - 6/18/19) A disturbance moving through the region will bring another round of heavy rain and flood potential to portions of the state, Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
Areas of rain and t'storms will spread into and across the state Wednesday morning. This activity will then continue in waves across the state through the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, before ending from west to east late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Given moderate to high moisture content in the atmosphere, characterized by PWAT values of upwards of 1.50-2.25", heavy rainfall is likely with this activity. Widespread rainfall totals upwards of 1-3" are possible in the heaviest axis across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, with locally higher amounts possible. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A low to moderate flood threat will exist across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Below is our updated TAM flood forecast for Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. 
JP
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(8:45PM - 6/18/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night... Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will spread into and across the state Wednesday morning, as an approaching disturbance moves in. In the wake of some of this early activity and ahead of the approaching disturbance, some clearing and destabilization will occur across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. An environment featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas. The development of additional showers and t'storms are likely during the afternoon across Missouri, Southwest and Western Illinois. This activity will then push eastward across much of Central and Southern Illinois into early Wednesday night. This activity will pose a widely scattered severe t'storm threat, with all modes of severe weather being possible. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities is possible if future updates, pending higher confidence in more clearing and destabilization. Additionally, scattered showers and t'storms will also be likely across much of Northern Illinois, during the day and night on Wednesday. No severe t'storms are expected with this activity. Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/night. 
JP
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(11:45AM - 6/18/19) A disturbance moving through the region will bring another round of heavy rain and flood potential to portions of the state, Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
Areas of rain and t'storms will spread into portions of Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning. This activity, along with additional development, will then spread across the rest of the state This activity will then continue in waves across the state through the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, before ending from west to east early Thursday morning. Given moderate to high moisture content in the atmosphere, characterized by PWAT values of upwards of 1.75-2.25", heavy rainfall is likely with this activity. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" are possible in an axis across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A low to moderate flood threat will exist across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Below is our updated TAM flood forecast for Wed morning to Thursday morning. 
JP
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(11:45AM - 6/18/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night... A few isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will move into Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, as an approaching disturbance moves in. Ahead of this disturbance, an environment featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place during the afternoon across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois. The development of additional showers and t'storms are likely during the afternoon across Missouri and Southwest Illinois. This activity will then push eastward across much of Central and Southern Illinois into early Thursday night. This activity will pose a widely scattered severe t'storm threat, with all modes of severe weather being possible. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities is possible if future updates, pending better agreement in model guidance and higher confidence in clearing and destabilization. Additionally, scattered showers and t'storms will also be likely across much of Northern Illinois, during the day and night on Wednesday. No severe t'storms are expected with this activity. Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/night. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 |
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