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(11:15AM Saturday - 4/30/22) As a storm system moves through the region today, a few rounds of scattered showers and t'storms move across the state, along and ahead of the associated advancing cold front. Given environmental conditions expected to be in place, some severe t'storm risk is expected with some of this activity.
With this update we have expanded the level 2 risk across a larger portion of the state. This change was made based on new information and real time observations this morning, as well as increasing confidence in the scenario that is expected to unfold. Location... -Much of Illinois. Timing... -Midday today through early tonight. Impacts... -A level 1 to level 2 severe t'storm risk is in place. Isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. 
JP
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(10:30PM Friday - 4/29/22) As a storm system moves through the region on Saturday, a few rounds of scattered showers and t'storms move across the state, along and ahead of the associated advancing cold front. Given environmental conditions expected to be in place, some severe t'storm risk is expected with some of this activity.
With this update, we have upgraded portions of Central and Southern Illinois to a level 2 sever t'storm risk. This change was made based on new data and increasing confidence in the scenario that is expected to unfold. Location... -Much of Illinois. Timing... -Midday Saturday through early Saturday night. Impacts... -A level 1 to level 2 severe t'storm risk is in place. Isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. 
JP
(11:30AM Friday - 4/29/22) As a storm system moves through the region on Saturday, a few rounds of scattered showers and t'storms move across the state, along and ahead of the associated advancing cold front. Given environmental conditions expected to be in place, some severe t'storm risk is expected with some of this activity. New information will continue to be monitored with time, for an eventual upgrade to a level 2 risk being possible for portions of the state.
Location... -Much of Illinois. Timing... -Midday Saturday through early Saturday night. Impacts... -A level 1 severe t'storm risk is in place. Isolated severe t'storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. 
JP
(9:30AM Sunday - 4/24/22) As a storm system moves through the region today, scattered showers and t'storms will develop and move across the state, along and ahead of the associated advancing cold front. Given environmental conditions expected to be in place, some severe t'storm risk is expected.
Location... -Northeast, East-Central and Southern Illinois. Timing... -This afternoon through tonight. Impacts... -A level 1 severe t'storm risk is in place. Isolated severe t'storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. 
JP
(9:30PM Saturday - 4/23/22) As a storm system moves through the region on Sunday, scattered showers and t'storms will develop and move across the state, along and ahead of the associated advancing cold front. Given environmental conditions expected to be in place, some severe t'storm risk is expected.
Location... -Northeast, East-Central and Southern Illinois. Timing... -Sunday afternoon through early Sunday night. Impacts... -A level 1 severe t'storm risk is in place. Isolated severe t'storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. 
JP
(10:30AM Thursday - 4/14/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a a period of high winds to Northern and Central Illinois, this morning through this evening.
Summary... With this update we have extended the area of expected high winds a bit further south into Central Illinois, based on new available information. The potent jet streak aloft trended a bit south on overnight and morning model guidance, which will expand the higher wind potential to more of the state. The same storm system that is bringing a severe t'storm risk to the state on Wednesday, will also bring a high wind event to Northern and Central Illinois, this morning through this evening. This storm system will track from the Northern Plains/Canada border to the Northern Great Lakes/Canada border on today.
Forecast...
This Morning - This Evening, April 14th ~ High Wind Event: As the storm system moves through the region today a potent jet streak will round the base of the associated trough through the region. This will bring a period of high winds to Northern and Central Illinois and portions of the region, this morning through this evening. High winds aloft, characterized by 700MB winds of 45-75KT and a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 40-55KT, will be in place. Deep mixing up to is anticipated at up to around 800MB, along with steep lapse rates and ample sun, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, westerly/southwesterly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across the northern half of the state, this morning through this evening. Isolated power outages and isolated tree damage will be possible.
Impacts...
-A period of high winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH is expected across Northern and Central Illinois, this morning through this evening. Isolated higher wind gusts of 60MPH+ will be possible. -Isolated power outages and isolated tree damage will be possible. 
JP
(9:30PM Wednesday - 4/13/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a a period of high winds to the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening.
Summary... With this update little to no change was needed, as the previous forecast is on track based on the latest information. The same storm system that is bringing a severe t'storm risk to the state on Wednesday, will also bring a high wind event to the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening. This storm system will track from the Northern Plains/Canada border to the Northern Great Lakes/Canada border on Thursday.
Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Evening, April 14th ~ High Wind Event: As the storm system moves through the region on Thursday, a potent jet streak will round the base of the associated trough through the region. This will bring a period of high winds to the northern half of the state and portions of the region, Thursday morning through Thursday evening. High winds aloft, characterized by 700MB winds of 55-85KT and a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 40-55KT, will be in place. Deep mixing up to is anticipated at up to around 800MB, along with steep lapse rates and ample sun, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, westerly/southwesterly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening.
Impacts...
-A period of high winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH is expected across the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening. -Isolated power outages and isolated tree damage will be possible. 
JP
(11:45AM Wednesday - 4/13/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a a period of high winds to the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening.
Summary... The same storm system that is bringing a severe t'storm risk to the state on Wednesday, will also bring a high wind event to the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening. This storm system will track from the Northern Plains/Canada border to the Northern Great Lakes/Canada border on Thursday.
Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Evening, April 14th ~ High Wind Event: As the storm system moves through the region on Thursday, a potent jet streak will round the base of the associated trough through the region. This will bring a period of high winds to the northern half of the state and portions of the region, Thursday morning through Thursday evening. High winds aloft, characterized by 700MB winds of 55-85KT and a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 40-55KT, will be in place. Deep mixing up to is anticipated at up to around 800MB, along with steep lapse rates and ample sun, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, westerly/southwesterly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening.
Impacts...
-A period of high winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH is expected across the northern half of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday evening. 
JP
(10:30AM Wednesday - 4/13/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state, this morning through this evening.
Summary... With this update we have adjusted the level 2 and 3 severe t'storms risks southward a bit across the state. This change was made based on real time observations, supporting the best severe t'storm risk to be a bit further south than previously expected. A storm system tracked through the Central Plains on Tuesday, and will be moving through the Midwest today, and then into Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state and portions of the region, this morning through this evening.
Forecast...
This Morning - This Evening, April 13th ~ Severe T'Storm Event: A complex scenario is expected today, with the main threat for an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk will exist across the state this morning through this evening. Several pockets of scattered showers and t'storms have been moving across the state this morning. Some of this activity is remnants of a line of showers and t'storms that moved across Iowa and Missouri Tuesday night, with other activity associated with a disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley. As anther disturbance pushes northeastward through the region, regeneration and development of new showers and t'storms has occurred this morning across portions of Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas. This activity is in the process of developing into a broken squall line (QLCS), with is expected to then push northeastward, sweeping across Central and Southern Illinois this afternoon and evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature low to moderate instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible, which includes; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
Impacts...
-An isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk is in place across the state, this morning through this evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. 
JP
(9:30PM Tuesday - 4/12/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Summary... With this update little to no changes were needed, as the going forecast is on track based on the current information available. A storm system tracking through the Central Plains today will move through the Midwest on Wednesday, and then into Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state and portions of the region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Forecast...
Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, April 13th ~ Severe T'Storm Event: A complex scenario is expected on Wednesday, with the main threat for an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk will exist across the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front, a left over broken line of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms from Tuesday night will be ongoing across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwest/Western Illinois and Missouri early Wednesday morning. This activity is expected push eastward through the morning across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. As anther disturbance pushes northeastward through the region, some regeneration and new development of showers and t'storms expected along the cold front from mid Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon, across portions of West-Central/Southwest Illinois and Missouri. This activity will then sweep northeastward across the state, from midday Wednesday through Wednesday evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature low to moderate instability of 500-3,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.5-9.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible, which includes; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. One thing to watch as it pertains to the extent and quality for severe weather risk, is the possibility for widespread cloud/shower/t'storm activity throughout the day across the state and region. This could limit the severe t'storm potential a bit if the effects are too overpowering.
Impacts...
-An isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk is in place across the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. 
JP
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