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(7:15PM - 6/17/19) A disturbance moving through the region will bring another round of heavy rain and flood potential to portions of the state, Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
Areas of rain and t'storms will spread into portions of Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning. This activity will then spread across the rest of the state, continuing in waves across through the day on Wednesday and Wednesday night, before ending from west to east early Thursday morning. Given moderate to high moisture content in the atmosphere, characterized by PWAT values of upwards of 1.75-2.25", heavy rainfall is likely with this activity. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" are possible in an axis across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. At this time model guidance is in disagreement on where exactly this heaviest axis will set up. However, at this time it looks like to set up in the vicinity of areas hard hit by heavy rain and flooding this past weekend. Given the wet pattern the past several months, recent heavy rainfall, and expected heavy rainfall...A low to moderate flood threat will exist across much of Central and Southern Illinois. Below is our first TAM flood forecast for Wed morning to Thursday morning. 
JP
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(7:00PM - 6/17/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night... A few isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will move into Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, as an approaching disturbance moves in. Ahead of this disturbance, an environment featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place during the afternoon across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois be. The development of additional showers and t'storms are likely during the afternoon across these areas. This activity will then push eastward across much of Central and Southern Illinois into early Thursday night. This activity will pose a widely scattered severe t'storm threat, with all modes of severe weather being possible. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities is possible if future updates, pending better agreement in model guidance and higher confidence in clearing and destabilization. Additionally, scattered showers and t'storms will also be likely across much of Northern Illinois, during the day and night on Wednesday. No severe t'storms are expected with this activity. Below is our first TAM severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/night. 
JP
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(1:00PM - 6/17/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through tonight.
Saturday Recap... Areas of showers and t’storms pushed across much of the state Saturday morning into the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, additional development of scattered showers and t’storms occurred across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity then moved across much of the state Saturday evening into night. Some of this activity was severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred.
Sunday recap...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms occurred across portions of Northern and Southern Illinois Saturday morning into early afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, additional development of scattered showers and t'storms occurred. This activity spread across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois from Sunday afternoon into night. Some of this activity was severe, with wind and hail being the main threats seen. Today into tonight... In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is has occurred across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push eastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for today/tonight. 
JP
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(9:00M - 6/16/19) A disturbance pushing through the region, along with a lingering front, will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Monday.
Saturday Recap... Areas of showers and t’storms pushed across much of the state Saturday morning into the afternoon. In the wake of this activity, additional development of scattered showers and t’storms occurred across Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity then moved across much of the state Saturday evening into night. Some of this activity was severe, with all modes of severe weather having occurred.
Today into tonight...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms have been ongoing across portions of Southern Illinois this evening, and will continue into tonight. Monday into Monday night... A few isolated showers and t’storms will be ongoing across portions of Southern Illinois Monday morning. In the wake of this early activity, development of new scattered showers and t’storms is likely during the afternoon across portions of Missouri, Arkansas, Central and Southern Illinois, in the vicinity of a front across the area. This activity will push eastward across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois into Monday night. An environment in place featuring low instability, good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across much of Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats Below is our TAM severe t’storm forecasts for Monday/Night. 
JP
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(1:15PM - 6/14/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday into Saturday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing across the state Saturday morning. In the wake of early activity, some clearing and destabilization will occur. As the main disturbance approaches during the afternoon, new scattered shower and t'storm development is likely across Iowa, Missouri, Northwest and Western Illinois. This activity will push east-southeastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon and on into Saturday night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, good moisture, and good shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more and earlier clearing and more destabilization look likely across the risk area, an upgrade is severe t'storm probabilities may be needed in future updates. A severe t'storm threat will also continue into Sunday...This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches. Below is our first TAM severe t’storm forecast for Saturday/night. 
JP
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(1:30PM - 6/5/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through tonight.
Tuesday recap... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms moved across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois Tuesday morning into early afternoon. An area of scattered showers and t'storms also moved across Southern Illinois late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Several rounds of showers and t'storms then pushed across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois Tuesday night. An isolated severe threat accompanied this activity, with wind and hail being the main threats.
This afternoon into tonight...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms occurred this morning into early afternoon across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. In the wake of early activity, additional scattered shower and t’storm develop will occur this afternoon, in the vicinity of a front that is pushing southeastward across Central Illinois. This activity will push southeastward across much of Central and Southern this afternoon into tonight. An environment in place featuring moderate to high instability, good to great moisture, and marginal to decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for today/tonight. 
JP
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(8:30PM - 6/4/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Wednesday.
Tonight... An area of scattered showers and t'storms has been pushing across Southern Illinois this evening. This activity will continue across this area into tonight. Additionally scattered showers and t'storms across Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin are expected to push across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent moisture, and marginal shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across a good portion of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats.
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will be likely across the state Wednesday morning. In the wake of early activity, additional scattered shower and t’storm develop will occur Wednesday afternoon, in the vicinity of a front that will be across Central Illinois. This activity will push southeastward across much of Central and Southern from Wednesday afternoon into night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, decent to good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for this multi-day event. 
JP
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(11:45AM - 6/4/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state through Wednesday.
Tuesday morning into Tuesday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, with that activity likely to continue into the early afternoon. Additional areas of scattered showers and t'storms that develop across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri this afternoon and evening, will also push across much of the state this evening and tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent moisture, and marginal shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across a good portion of the state. Wind and hail will be the main threats.
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will be likely across the state Wednesday morning, possibly continuing into the afternoon. Additional scattered shower and t’storm develop will occur Wednesday afternoon, in the vicinity of a front that will be across Central Illinois. This activity will push southeastward across a good portion of the state from Wednesday afternoon into night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, decent to good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across Central and Southern Illinois. Wind and hail will be the main threats. Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for this multi-day event.
JP
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(1:15PM - 6/3/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday morning into Tuesday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be likely across the state Tuesday morning and afternoon. Additional areas of scattered showers and t'storms that develop across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri during the afternoon and evening, will also push across the state Tuesday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, decent to good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across a good portion of the state, mainly Tuesday afternoon into night. Wind and hail will be the main threats. We have expanded very low end severe probabilities across the rest of the state this update. A severe t'storm threat will also continue into Wednesday...This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches. Below is our first TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900
(10:45PM - 6/2/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday morning into Tuesday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be likely across the state Tuesday morning and afternoon. Additional areas of scattered showers and t'storms that develop across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri during the afternoon and evening, will also push across the state Tuesday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low to moderate instability, decent to good moisture, and decent shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Northwest, Western and Southwest. Wind and hail will be the main threats. A severe t'storm threat will also continue into Wednesday...This will be discussed further in upcoming updates as the time approaches. Below is our first TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 |
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