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(11:45AM - 4/9/21) A storm system will move through the region today through Sunday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Southern Illinois this afternoon through Saturday morning, and windy conditions to portions of the state Saturday morning through Sunday morning.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes today through Sunday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Southern Illinois this afternoon through Saturday morning, and windy conditions to portions of the state Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Model guidance with time the past several days has come in with a farther northwest and stronger solution for this storm system, which will to the isolated severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois and the windy conditions across portions of the state.
Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across Southern Illinois, ahead of an approaching developing storm system. A few isolated showers and t'storms are expected to develop along a stationary boundary across Southern Illinois, and will move across portions of Southern Illinois this afternoon. With the marginal environment in place, an isolated strong to severe t'storm will be possible...However, the main focus is a bit later, as the developing storm system moves through. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, in the vicinity of a warm front and cold front. This activity will then push northeastward, eventually moving across Southern Illinois from this evening through Saturday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment that is expected to be in place, a level 1 (isolated) severe t'storm risk will be possible across Southern Illinois, from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm. In addition to the severe t'storm threat, windy conditions are expected across portions of the state, Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Wind gusts of 25-45MPH will be likely across a good portion of the state during this period, aided by a steadily developing and strengthening storm system, prior to it occluding and weakening. Below is the severe t'storm and wind forecasts for this event.
JP
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(9:30PM - 4/8/21) A storm system will move through the region Friday and Saturday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Friday and Saturday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Model guidance has been slowly coming around to showing this potential as the time period in question has approached. With that said, there is some disagreement that exists whether or not there will be a severe t'storm threat across Southern Illinois...But at this time there is enough support to outline a level 1 (isolated) severe t'storm risk.
Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across Southern Illinois, ahead of an approaching developing storm system. A few isolated showers and t'storms are expected to develop along a stationary boundary across Southern Illinois, and will move across portions of Southern Illinois late Friday morning through late Friday afternoon. With the marginal environment in place, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible...However, the main focus is a bit later, as the developing storm system moves through. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma Friday afternoon, in the vicinity of a warm front and cold front. This activity will the push northeastward, eventually traversing Southern Illinois from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment that is expected to be in place, a level 1 (isolated) severe t'storm risk will be possible across Southern Illinois, from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 4/7/21) A storm system moving through the region today through Thursday will bring an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, this afternoon through tonight.
Summary... A storm system moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes today and Thursday will bring an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, this afternoon through tonight. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement, with real time observations supportive, regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. With this update this update the level 1 (Minimal) severe t'storm risk was pulled a bit deeper into Central and Southern Illinois, but no significant changes were needed.
Forecast...
Areas of showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across Iowa, Missouri, Western and Northwest Illinois. In the wake of this activity, a marginal environment is expected to develop across a large potion of the state on Wednesday, favoring Western and Southwest Illinois...as well as across portions of Iowa and much of Missouri. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes across Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon, additional scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then push northeastward across much of the state, this afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk is expected across Western and Southwest Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will is expected, this afternoon through tonight. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(9:00PM - 4/6/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. As was been the case with the previous update, little to no change was needed with this update as well.
Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across a large potion of the state on Wednesday, favoring Western and Southwest Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes across Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then push northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across Western and Southwest Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:30AM - 4/6/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. Little to no change was needed with this update.
Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across a large potion of the state on Wednesday, favoring Western and Southwest Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes across Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then push northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across Western and Southwest Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will be possible. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:30PM - 4/5/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois, Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Model guidance is in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance.
Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across a large potion of the state on Wednesday, favoring Western and Southwest Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes across Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then push northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across Western and Southwest Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will be possible. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(7:00PM - 4/3/21) Easter has arrived, and it will feature warm and dry conditions across not only the state, but for much of the region.
Easter Forecast... Dry and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected, with light winds. High temperatures will be in the mid 70's for much of the state. Low temperatures for the day will be in the low to mid 40's across the state. 
JP
(9:45PM - 3/26/21) A storm system will move through the region on Saturday, bringing an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Saturday through Saturday night, bringing an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance. With this update we have introduced a level 2 severe t'storm threat for portions of Central and Southern Illinois, as confidence has grown.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be possible across Northern Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a marginal environment develop across a large potion of the state, favoring Central and Southern Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and good shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes into Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then spread eastward across much of the state, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across much of Central and Southern Illinois, where an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm is expected. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe t'storm, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 3/26/21) A storm system will move through the region on Saturday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes Saturday through Saturday night, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be possible across Northern Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a marginal environment develop across a large potion of the state, favoring Central and Southern Illinois. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes into Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will then spread eastward across much of the state, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across much of Central and Southern Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will be possible. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(8:00PM - 3/25/21) A storm system will move through the region on Saturday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes, Saturday through Saturday night, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Central and Southern Illinois Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Model guidance is in good agreement regarding all aspects of this potential at this time...Including timing, placement and significance.
Forecast...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be possible across Northwest Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this early activity, a marginal environment develop across a large potion of the state. This marginal environment will feature low instability, modest moisture, and decent shear and forcing. As a cold front pushes into Northern and Central Illinois during the afternoon, scattered showers and t'storms will develop. This activity will this activity will then spread eastward across much of the state, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Given the aforementioned marginal environment in place, a low end severe t'storm risk will be possible across much of Central and Southern Illinois, where an isolated severe t'storm will be possible. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe t'storm. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
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