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(11:15AM - 10/23/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, early Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Plains on Sunday morning, then into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, early Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Forecast...
Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, Oct 24th... Widespread areas of rain and t'storms will spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from late tonight/early Sunday morning through late Sunday afternoon. With a warm front expected to be meandering across Central Illinois and an associated marginal severe t'storm environment, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible across Central Illinois early Sunday morning through mid Sunday afternoon. The main focus will come a bit later, as scattered showers and t'storms that develop along a cold front across Eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday afternoon will sweep eastward, making it to the Missouri/Illinois border by early Sunday evening, and then spreading across Central and Southern Illinois late Sunday afternoon through Sunday late night. Ahead of this activity, the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 5000-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good forcing, and lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a level 1/isolated to level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
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(11:00PM - 10/22/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Plains on Sunday morning, then into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
Forecast...
Sunday Morning - Sunday Night, Oct 24th... Widespread areas of rain and t'storms will spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from late Saturday night/early Sunday morning through late Sunday afternoon. With a warm front expected to be meandering across Central Illinois and an associated marginal severe t'storm environment, an isolated severe t'storm will be possible across Central Illinois Sunday morning through Sunday late afternoon. The main focus will come a bit later, as scattered showers and t'storms that develop along a cold front across Eastern Kansas and Missouri Sunday afternoon will sweep eastward, making it to the Missouri/Illinois border by early Sunday evening, and then spreading across Central and Southern Illinois Sunday evening through Sunday night. Ahead of this activity, the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 5000-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good forcing, and lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a level 1/isolated to level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 10/11/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through early tonight.
Summary... A storm system moved through the Southern Plains on Sunday, and will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes today. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, through early tonight. With this update we have upgraded portions of the state to a level 2/sporadic severe t'storm risk for today. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, Oct 11th... Areas of rain and t'storms have been moving across Northwestern, Western and Southwestern Illinois this morning. It is expected that some re-generation and re-development of this activity will occur, as this activity spreads northeastward across the state this afternoon. Some of this activity could pose a severe t'storm threat through the day. Another round of showers and t'storms developing along a cold front in Missouri this morning will further develop, and will spread northeastward across the state this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity will also pose a severe t'storm threat during this time. As mentioned above, some severe t'storm potential will exist across the state today, with an environment supportive of some severe t'storm threat. This environment will feature low instability of 500-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, high shear, and decent lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Leading into today there had been concerns regarding the amount of clearing/sun that will be seen across the state today for destabilization purposes. It appears those concerns were valid, and will be a limiting factor preventing higher severe t'storm potential for today. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(9:45PM - 10/10/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Summary... A storm system moving through the Southern Plains today, will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 10/10/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Southern Plains today, and then through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:00PM - 10/9/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Summary... A storm system move from the Southern Plains on Sunday, through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
Forecast...
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
(11:45AM - 9/20/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this evening through Tuesday morning.
Summary... A storm system moved through the Plains and into the Midwest Sunday night into this morning, and will push through the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon through Tuesday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this evening through early Tuesday morning.
Forecast...
Monday Evening - Tuesday Morning, Sept 20-21st... As a storm system moves through the Midwest and Great Lakes today into Tuesday, a cold front will sweep eastward across the state, from this evening through Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop this afternoon along this cold front across portions of Southern Minnesota, Iowa and Northern Missouri. This activity will then move eastward and across a large portion of the state, from this evening into Tuesday morning. An environment favorable for some severe t'storm potential will be in place across a large portion of the state ahead of this activity. This environment will feature low instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low 60's to low 70's, modest, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(9:00PM - 9/19/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
Summary... A storm system moving through the Plains and into the Midwest tonight into Monday morning, will push through the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday afternoon through Tuesday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
Forecast...
Monday Evening - Tuesday Morning, Sept 20-21st... As a storm system moves through the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will quickly sweep eastward across the state, from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop Monday afternoon along this cold front across portions of Southern Minnesota, Iowa and Northern Missouri. This activity will then move eastward and across a large portion of the state, from Monday evening into Tuesday morning. An environment favorable for some severe t'storm potential will be in place across a large portion of the state ahead of this activity. This environment will feature low instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points in the low 60's to low 70's, modest, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.5-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(8:00PM - 9/8/21) A brief recap of the Tue, Sept 7th severe t'storm event that affected the state and region.
Recap Summary... A storm system moved through the Midwest Monday night, and then pushed through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This storm system brought widespread severe t'storms to portions of the state and region, producing widespread large hail and damaging winds.
Daily Recap...
Tuesday Morning - Tuesday Night, Sept 7th... Scattered showers and t'storms developed Tuesday morning across Central and Southern Wisconsin, ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward, many of these t'storms having been severe. Additional back-building of showers and t'storms occurred ahead of the same advancing cold front across Northwest and Western Illinois early Tuesday afternoon. This activity then pushed southeastward across Northern and Central Illinois Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with scattered t'storms having been severe, producing widespread damaging winds and large hail. 
JP
(11:45AM - 9/7/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to a large portion of the state, late this morning through early tonight.
Summary... A storm system moved through the Midwest last night, and will push through the Great Lakes today. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, late this morning through early tonight.
Forecast...
This Morning - Tonight, Sept 7th... As a storm system moves through the Great Lakes today, a cold front will quickly sweep southeastward across the state, from late this morning through tonight. Scattered showers and t'storms have developed along this front across portions of Southern Wisconsin this morning, with additional development expected along this front across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois through early this afternoon. This activity will then quickly move southeastward across a large portion of the state, from early this afternoon into early tonight. An environment favorable for severe t'storms will be in place across a large portion of the state ahead of this activity. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, high shear, ample forcing, and high lapse rates of 6.5-8.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-3) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
JP
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