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(9:30PM - 5/18/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well. Friday morning through evening, periods of rain and isolated t'storms pushed across much of Northern Illinois. No severe weather occurred.
Tonight...
Areas of rain and isolated to scattered t’storm will push across much of the state tonight. An isolated strong to several t’storm threat is possible with some of this activity. Hail and wind will be the main threats should any t’storm reach those levels. Sunday morning through night... Areas of showers and isolated t'storms will be ongoing across portions of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity, some clearing and destabilization may occur in the wake of this activity, ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the state during the afternoon. New development of isolated to scattered showers and t'storm will likely occur along this front, from Northern down into Southern Illinois. This activity will push northeast across the state, exiting during the evening. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update. Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event. 
JP
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(10:00AM - 5/18/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well. Friday morning through evening, periods of rain and isolated t'storms pushed across much of Northern Illinois. No severe weather occurred.
This morning through tonight...
Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are currently pushing into Northwest and Western Illinois. This activity will continue to spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois through the rest of the morning, and into the afternoon. It looks likely that clearing and destabilization will occur ahead of and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into this evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for most of the state, with a slightly better chance of a widely scattered severe t’storm threat across Western Illinois areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, an upgrade or expansion in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update. Sunday morning through night... Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be ongoing across a good portion of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity, clearing and destabilization should occur ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the state during the afternoon. New development of isolated to scattered showers and t'storm will likely occur along this front, from Northern down into Southern Illinois. This activity will push northeast across the state, exiting during the evening. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, or confidence grow with the aforementioned scenario, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update. Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.
JP
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(1:00AM - 5/18/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well. Friday morning through evening, periods of rain and isolated t'storms pushed across much of Northern Illinois. No severe weather occurred.
Saturday morning through night...
Weakening areas of showers and scattered t'storms will be possible across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois mid Saturday morning into the afternoon. It looks likely that some clearing and destabilization will occur between and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into Saturday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for some areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update. Sunday morning through night... Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be ongoing across a good portion of the state Sunday morning. In the wake of this activity, clearing and destabilization should occur ahead of a cold front expected to sweep across the state during the afternoon. New development of scattered showers and t'storm will likely occur along this front, front Northern Illinois down into Southern Illinois. This activity will push northeast across the state, exiting during the evening. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, decent to good moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Should more clearing and destabilization occur, leading to a better environment, or confidence grow with the aforementioned scenario, an upgrade in severe probabilities may be needed for some areas in a later update. Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900
(11:30AM - 5/17/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well. Today through night... Areas of rain and isolated t'storms have been ongoing this morning across much of Northern Illinois. Additional periods of rain and isolated t'storms will be possible across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois through this evening. Most of this activity will be north of a warm front in place across the region, which extends across Central Illinois. With some elevated instability in place, an isolated strong to severe t'storm is possible. Hail would be the main threat should any storm reach those levels.
Saturday morning through night...
Weakening areas of showers and scattered t'storms will be possible across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois mid Saturday morning into the afternoon. It looks plausible at this time that some clearing and destabilization will occur between and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into Saturday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for some areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A severe threat may also continue into Sunday for portions of the state, with this being further discussed in future updates. Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900
(11:55PM - 5/16/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
Tonight... Widespread showers and t'storms have been ongoing since this evening across a good portion of Northern Illinois. Several of these storms have been severe, with hail having been the most common threat. Periods of showers and t'storms will continue overnight across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois, with a continued isolated to scattered severe t'storm threat at times given a favorable environment, though the threat will gradually diminish with time overnight. Hail and winds will be the main threats.
Friday morning through night...
It looks likely that there will be several periods of showers and t'storms across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois from Friday morning through Friday evening. Most of this activity will likely be north of a warm front in place across the region, which will extend across Central Illinois. With some elevated instability in place, an isolated strong to severe t'storm is possible. Hail would be the main threat should any storm reach those levels. Saturday morning through night... Weakening areas of showers and scattered t'storms will be possible across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois late Saturday morning into the afternoon. It looks plausible at this time that some clearing and destabilization will occur between and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then also push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into Saturday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for some areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A severe threat may also continue into Sunday for portions of the state, with this being further discussed in future updates. Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.
JP
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(12:00PM - 5/16/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
This afternoon through tonight... A complex of showers and t'storms has been ongoing this morning across portions of Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. This activity has regenerated and strengthened, becoming severe. This renewed complex of showers and t'storms will likely push southeast during the afternoon and evening, along an instability gradient that exists in the vicinity of the Illinois/Indiana border. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this activity. In the wake of the aforementioned activity, additional isolated shower and t'storm development will be possible across Iowa, Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois this afternoon and evening, along an advancing cold front and remnant outflow boundary. The expected environment in place across these areas will feature high instability, good moisture and good shear. As another disturbance moves into the region during the afternoon, it looks possible that there will be enough forcing to overcome a cap in place. At this time will forecast isolated coverage during the afternoon and evening, becoming more widespread by early tonight and continuing overnight. Given the aforementioned environment expected, isolated severe t'storms are possible. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado threat early on.
Friday morning through night...
It looks likely that there will be several periods of showers and t'storms across portions of Northern and Central Illinois from Friday morning through Friday night. An isolated strong to severe t'storm threat will exist with each round of activity. Wind and hail will be the main threats. It should be noted that a severe t'storm threat will likely extend beyond Friday night, on into Sunday, for portions of the state. Additional information regarding the potential on each of those days will be discussed in later updates. Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.
JP
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(5:55AM - 5/8/19) After rainy and stormy periods the past few days, the main storm system will finally begin to eject out into the region, bringing one final day of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state on Wednesday.
Wednesday afternoon and night... Scattered showers and isolated t'storms have been spreading northward across portions of Northern and Central this morning, and will continue to into late morning. In the wake of this activity, a warm front will push northward across the state, making it into Northern Illinois during the afternoon. Two scenarios are still possible for today. The first scenario is a large complex of rain and t'storm pushes into the state during the afternoon in a weakening phase, and lingers much of the day. This would lead to little potential clearing and destabilization, thus little to no severe weather threat. In the second scenario...Enough clearing and destabilization would likely occur ahead of the approaching weakening large complex of rain and t'storms, redevelopment of new activity would likely occur in the vicinity of the IL/IA/MO border area. This activity would then spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois into early Wednesday night. This activity would be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and good shear. This environment will help support a low end severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail would be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. Sounding also show a tornado threat would exist as well. For now will go with the middle ground between each solution, though slightly favoring the first solution given past history in similar situations. Should the second scenario eventually look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities would be needed. Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecasts for the event. 
JP
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(12:30PM - 5/6/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.
After a wet week with widespread high rainfall totals and flooding for the state last week, another wet period is on the way for this upcoming week. A lingering frontal boundary with several disturbances moving through the region will bring several periods of rain and t'storms to much of the state from now through Thursday. During this period, there will be a some rounds of more organized activity. Things kicked off Sunday evening into this evening...With areas of rain and isolated t'storms affecting portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Areas of rain then continued across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Monday and Monday night. Rainfall totals with this round generally stayed under 0.50" for affected areas, though isolated corridors in Central Illinois received in excess of 1-3” of rain.
The next more organized round of rain and t'storms will affect much of the state this evening into Wednesday night. Widespread rainfall amounts from this round will be up to 0.50", with corridors of 1-3” of rain possible.
Final rainfall totals will likely end up around or in excess of 1" across a decent portion of the state during this period, with areas of higher rainfall totals likely. It is looking more likely as time goes on that areas of 2-5" rainfall totals may be possible across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, which will promote more widespread minor to moderate flooding potential across this area. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread minor flood potential is likely. Below is our updated TAM flood forecast. 
JP
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(12:00PM - 5/7/19) A frontal boundary lingering across the state with disturbances moving through, will aide in promoting a very low end severe threat across portions of the state Monday through Wednesday.
This afternoon and tonight... In the wake of early day showers and isolated t'storms across Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois...New development of isolated showers and t'storms will occur along a cold front across Central and Southern Illinois during the afternoon. This activity will be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and modest shear. This environment will help support a very low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. Activity will persist across Central and Southern Illinois into tonight.
Wednesday afternoon and night...
Scattered showers and isolated t'storms will likely be spreading across portions of the state Wednesday morning. In the wake of this activity, a warm front will push northward across the state, making it into Northern Illinois during the afternoon. Two scenarios are possible for Wednesday. The first scenario is a large complex of rain and t'storm pushes into the state and lingers much of the day, with little to no severe weather threat. In the second scenario...Should enough clearing and destabilization occur ahead of the approaching large complex of rain and t'storms, redevelopment and strengthening would occur. This activity would then spread across much of the state into the evening. This activity would be in an environment featuring modest instability, modest moisture and decent shear. This environment will help support a low end strong to severe t'storm threat. Wind and hail would be the main threats with any strong to severe t'storm. For now will go with the middle ground between each solution, though slightly favoring the first solution given past history in similar situations. Should the second scenario eventually look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities would be needed. Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecasts for each day.
JP
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(10:00PM - 5/6/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.
After a wet week with widespread high rainfall totals and flooding for the state last week, another wet period is on the way for this upcoming week. A lingering frontal boundary with several disturbances moving through the region will bring several periods of rain and t'storms to much of the state from now through Thursday. During this period, there will be a some rounds of more organized activity. Things kicked off Sunday evening into this evening...With areas of rain and isolated t'storms affecting portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Rainfall totals with this round generally stayed under 0.50", though isolated corridors in Central Illinois have received in excess of 1” of rain.
The second more organized round of rain and t'storms will affect much of the state Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts from this round will be up to 0.50, with corridors of 1-3” of rain possible. The third round will affect much of the state, from Wednesday morning into Thursday evening.
Final rainfall totals will likely end up around or in excess of 1" across a decent portion of the state during this period, with areas of higher rainfall totals likely. It is looking more likely as time goes on that areas of 1-4" rainfall totals may be possible across portions of Northern Illinois, which will promote more widespread minor to moderate flooding potential across this area. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread minor flood potential is likely. Below is our updated TAM flood forecast. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 |
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