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(11:30AM - 2/19/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region Sunday into Monday, bringing accumulating snow to the northern half of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out into the Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning, then moving northeastward through the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday. Model guidance has been showing the potential for a system system during this period for several days now, and guidance has come closer to agreement regarding track/strength of the storm system and location/amounts for snow.
Forecast...
Northern Illinois: An area of snow will spread across Northern Illinois, late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Snow will be of varying intensity during this time, though generally being light to moderate at times. Central Illinois... An area of precipitation will spread across Central Illinois, late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. A transition zone is expected across Central Illinois for the duration of the precipitation...With most precipitation expected to be snow further north across Central Illinois, and rain further south across Central Illinois. Southern Illinois... Areas of rain and rain showers will spread across Southern Illinois, from Sunday morning through Sunday night.
What's expected...
Snowfall totals of 1-3" are expected along/north of I-80, with amounts tapering to the south across Central Illinois. Below is the snow forecast for this event. 
JP
1 Comment
(2:30PM - 2/17/21) A brief recap regarding the Sun-Mon, Feb 14-16th major snowstorm that affected the state with significant snowfall accumulation for many areas.
Overview... A storm system impacted the region Sunday through Tuesday, bringing an extended period featuring waves of accumulating snow for the state. The storm system ejected out from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern US, Sunday night into Monday. The storm system then moved northeastward through the Appalachians on Tuesday. Model guidance showed the potential for this storm system several days out, includign the threat for widespread and significant accumulating snowfall to portions of the state... However, there was a late shift northwestward, which ended up bringing heavier snowfall totals to more of the state.
Summary...
A lengthy period featuring two waves of accumulating snow affected the state, Sunday through Tuesday. Two distinct periods of snow impacted the state...One Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, and the second from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The second period featured the most organized and widespread snow, in addition to the heaviest snow and most snowfall accumulation. During this entire snowstorm period (Sun morning-Tue morning) snow was of of varying intensity, with a few breaks between two periods/waves of snowfall having occurred. Snow was be moderate to heavy at times during the second period of snow, Monday morning through Tuesday morning. During this time snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour occurred at times, especially across Central, Southern and Northeast Illinois. Additionally, breezy conditions with wind gusts of 20-30MPH lead to significant blowing and drifting snow across the state, Monday and Monday night. Additionally, lake enhancement/lake effect snow occurred across Northeast Illinois during the event from Monday morning through Tuesday morning, which significantly enhanced snowfall totals near the lake. Snowfall totals at the height of the event Monday evening were around 3" an hour.
Wrap-up...
Final snowfall totals upwards of 6-12" occurred across East-Central and Southern Illinois. Across Western, Northwest and North-Central Illinois...Totals tapered with northwest extent. Across Northeast Illinois where lake effect/enhancement occurred, snowfall totals of 9-18" occurred near Lake Michigan, with locally higher amounts around 20". Below is a map representation of final forecasts an observed snowfall across the state and adjacent areas. 
JP
(11:30AM - 2/17/21) A storm system will move through the region today through Thursday, bringing a minor snowfall event to the state.
Summary... A storm system will move through the region today through Thursday, bringing periods of snow/snow showers and minor snowfall accumulation to the state. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding this event, and real time observations to the southwest support the going forecast, thus little to no change is needed with this forecast update.
Forecast...
Periods of light snow and snow showers will spread across the state, through Thursday evening. Due to this developing storm system being further south and the lack of available moisture this far north...This will remain a minor/nuisance event. Additionally, a bit of lake enhanced/lake effect snow will be possible across Northeast Illinois near Lake Michigan on Thursday. What's Expected... Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1" across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts of 1-3" across far Southern Illinois. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:30PM - 2/16/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a minor snowfall event to the state.
Summary... A storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing periods of snow/snow showers and minor snowfall accumulation to the state. Model guidance continues to me in good agreement regarding this event, with little change needed with this forecast update.
Forecast...
Periods of light snow and snow showers will spread across the state, from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. Due to this developing storm system being further south and the lack of available moisture this far north...This will remain a minor/nuisance event. Additionally, a bit of lake enhanced/lake effect snow will be possible across Northeast Illinois near Lake Michigan on Thursday. What's Expected... Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1" across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts of 1-3" across far Southern Illinois. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:15AM - 2/16/21) A developing storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a minor snowfall event to the state.
Summary... A developing storm system will move through the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing periods of snow/snow showers and a minor snowfall event to the state. Model guidance has been showing the potential for a storm system to affect the state during this period. Over time, guidance has come to agreement on a weak and minor event for the state.
Forecast...
Periods of light snow and snow showers will spread across the state, from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. Due to this developing storm system being further south and the lack of available moisture this far north...This will remain a minor/nuisance event. What's Expected... Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1" across much of the state, with slightly higher amounts of 1-3" across far Southern Illinois. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:30PM - 2/14/21) A snowstorm will continue to affect the state through Tuesday, bringing waves of accumulating snow to the entire state, with significant accumulation for some areas. Additionally, significant lake effect/enhanced snow is expected across Northeast Illinois.
Summary... A storm system will be impacting the region through Tuesday, with an extended period featuring waves of accumulating snow for the state. The storm system will eject out from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern US, tonight and into Monday. The storm system will then move northeastward through the Appalachians on Tuesday. With this update we have increased expected snowfall totals for some areas, as confidence in the given outcome increases.
Forecast...
A lengthy period featuring waves of accumulating snow will affect the state, through Tuesday morning. Two more distinct periods of snow look to impact the state...One through Monday morning, and the second from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The second period will feature the most organized and widespread snow, in addition to the heaviest snow and most snowfall accumulation. During this entire snowstorm period (Through Tue morning) snow will be of varying intensity, with a few breaks between periods/waves of snowfall being possible. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, especially during the second period of snow Monday morning through Tuesday morning. During this time snowfall rates in excess of 1" an hour will be likely at times, especially across Central, Southern and Northeast Illinois. In addition to the synoptic snow, across Northeast Illinois lake enhanced snow is likely during the snowstorm and lake effect snow is likely after the snowstorm ends. This is expected to lead to lake boosted significant snowfall accumulations across portions of Northeast Illinois. Periods of moderate to heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1-3" an hour, can be expected across counties near the lake.
What's Expected...
Final snowfall totals upwards of 6-12" are expected East-Central and Southern Illinois. Across Western, Northwest and North-Central Illinois...Totals will taper with northwest extent. Across Northeast Illinois where lake effect/enhancement is expected, snowfall totals of 6-15" are expected for counties near Lake Michigan. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 2/14/21) A snowstorm is expected to affect the region today through Tuesday, bringing waves of accumulating snow to the state. Additionally, significant lake effect/enhanced snow is expected across Northeast Illinois.
Summary... A storm system will be impacting the region today through Tuesday, with an extended period featuring waves of accumulating snow for the state. The storm system will eject out from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern US, today and into Monday. The storm system will then move northeastward through the Appalachians on Tuesday. Model guidance from overnight and this morning has taken a shift northwest. This shift means the entire state is now expected to see an accumulating snowfall, with an increase in expected snowfall totals for a large area as well. With this update we have taken into account the shift in our forecast, with the aforementioned changes.
Forecast...
A lengthy period featuring waves of accumulating snow will affect the state, from this morning through Tuesday morning. Two more distinct periods of snow look to impact the state...One from this morning through Monday morning, and the second from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The second period will feature the most organized and widespread snow, in addition to the heaviest snow and most snowfall accumulation. During this entire snowstorm period (Sun morning-Tue morning) snow will be of varying intensity, with a few breaks between periods/waves of snowfall being possible. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, especially during the second period of snow Monday morning through Tuesday morning. During this time snowfall rates in excess of 1" an hour will be likely at times, especially across Central, Southern and Northeast Illinois. In addition to the synoptic snow, across Northeast Illinois lake enhanced snow is likely during the snowstorm and lake effect snow is likely after the snowstorm ends. This is expected to lead to lake boosted significant snowfall accumulations across portions of Northeast Illinois. Periods of moderate to heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1-3" an hour, can be expected across counties near the lake.
What's Expected...
Final snowfall totals upwards of 4-9" are expected across Southern Illinois and a large portion of Central Illinois. Across Western, Northwest and North-Central Illinois...Totals will taper with northwest extent. Across Northeast Illinois where lake effect/enhancement is expected, snowfall totals of 6-12" are expected for counties near Lake Michigan. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:15PM - 2/13/21) A winter storm is expected to affect the region Sunday through Tuesday, bringing waves of accumulating snow to portions of the state. Additionally, lake effect snow will be possible across Northeast Illinois.
Summary... A storm system is expected to affect the region Sunday through Tuesday, with an extended period featuring waves of accumulating snow for portions of the state. The storm system will eject out from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern US, Sunday and into Monday. The storm system will then move northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Model guidance continues to come into better agreement as time goes on regarding aspects of this winter storm. As better agreement occurs and confidence increases, snowfall totals have been increased a bit for some areas, as well as a slight adjustment to the placement of the wide snowfall axis.
Forecast...
A lengthy period featuring waves of accumulating snow will affect a large portion of the state, from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. During this time snow will be of varying intensity, with a few breaks between periods/waves of snowfall being possible. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, with snowfall rates in excess of 1" an hour at times...Especially across Southern and portions of East-Central Illinois. In addition to the synoptic snow, across Northeast Illinois lake enhanced snow is possible during the event and lake effect snow is expected after the event ends. This is expected to lead to lake boosted snowfall accumulations across Northeast Illinois. Periods of moderate to heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1-2" an hour, can be expected at times near the lake shore (Cook Co). What's Expected... Final snowfall totals upwards of 4-7" are expected across the southern half of the state, with locally higher amount possible. Across Central Illinois, snowfall totals will taper, with 1-5" being likely. Across Northeast Illinois where lake effect/enhancement is expected, snowfall totals of 4-9" are expected near the immediate lake shore (Cook Co), and 1-5" further inland. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 2/13/21) A winter storm is expected to affect the region Sunday through Tuesday, bringing waves of accumulating snow to portions of the state. Additionally, lake effect snow will be possible across Northeast Illinois.
Summary... A storm system is expected to affect the region Sunday through Tuesday, with an extended period featuring waves of accumulating snow for portions of the state. The storm system will eject out from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern US, Sunday and into Monday. The storm system will then move northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Model guidance continues to be in some disagreement regarding certain aspects of this event, thus we continue to take a middle ground solution with this forecast update.
Forecast...
A lengthy period featuring waves of accumulating snow will affect a large portion of the state, from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. During this time snow will be of varying intensity, with a few breaks between periods/waves of snowfall being possible. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, with snowfall rates in excess of 1" an hour at times. In addition to the synoptic snow, across Northeast Illinois lake enhanced snow is possible during the event and lake effect snow is possible after the event ends. This is expected to lead to snowfall accumulations across Northeast Illinois. What's Expected... Final snowfall totals upwards of 4-7" is expected across Southern Illinois, with amounts of 1-5" expected across Central and Northeast Illinois. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:00PM - 2/12/21) A storm system is expected to affect the region Sunday through Tuesday, bringing waves of accumulating snow to portions of the state. Additionally, lake effect snow will be possible across Northeast Illinois.
Summary... A storm system is expected to affect the region Sunday through Tuesday, with an extended period featuring waves of accumulating snow for portions of the state. The storm system will eject out from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeastern US, Sunday and into Monday. The storm system will then move northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Model guidance has been showing the potential for this storm system for several days. After being in significant disagreement, the cone of uncertainty has narrowed with time...However, some disagreement regarding track/strength of the system and associated location/amounts of snowfall still exist.
Forecast...
A lengthy period featuring several waves of accumulating snow will affect a large portion of the state, from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. During this time snow will be of varying intensity, with a few breaks between periods/waves of snowfall being possible. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times, with snowfall rates in excess of 1" an hour at times. In addition to the synoptic snow, across Northeast Illinois lake enhanced snow is possible during the event and lake effect snow is possible after the event ends. This is expected to lead to snowfall accumulations across Northeast Illinois.
What's Expected...
Final snowfall totals upwards of 4-7" is expected across Southern Illinois, with amounts of 1-5" expected across Central and Northeast Illinois. Below is the snowfall forecast for this event. 
JP
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