Model guidance continues to waffle around and trend towards different solutions/outcomes next week and we want to continue to stress the uncertainty of this time period with nothing close to being set in stone. What was once looking like one single system is now beginning to look like **multiple systems** over a 3-4 day period affecting the Midwest and here in Illinois with wintry precipitation, including the threat of accumulating snow.
Even though model guidance is still struggling with what happens later next week, there remains good agreement on our main trough and upper level low (which is still out over the Pacific Ocean) coming ashore California on Sunday afternoon and evening, as shown below. After that it will slowly make its way into the Four Corners region but beyond that is when model guidance is having fits on outcomes. Some guidance is now suggesting multiple waves or systems will come northeast into the Midwest out of the southern plains with several rounds of precipitation across the region but timing this at this stage is still full of uncertainty.
As mentioned above, this is continuing to trend to multiple waves or systems affecting our area next week. Taking an ensemble forecast approach, the three images below are all possible areas of low pressure at the mentioned time period on the image. This is showing the agreement on an area of low pressure being in that area at that time. The first one as of now looks to be Monday night, the second system late Tuesday night and the 3rd and one with probably the highest potential for something significant is Wednesday night into Thursday. Again, we want to stress that this is now looking like several systems moving through the region from later Monday and through portions of Thursday.
We will continue to slowly pin down specifics over the upcoming weekend and heading into next week but no specifics will be given or thrown out yet given all the continued uncertainties on model guidance. Our latest broad thinking follows below outlining an area of potential accumulating snow and ice with things to note on the side....stay tuned for updates over the weekend.
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