(11:15PM - 3/27/20) A storm system will be moving through the region over the coming days, and along with it will come a severe t'storm threat, tonight through Saturday night. With this update, we have slightly expanded severe t'storm probabilities for Saturday/Saturday night...as the potential continues to increase for a significant severe weather event across the state on Saturday.
Areas of showers and t'storms moved across portions of Central and Southern Illinois earlier this morning. Some of this activity was severe, with large hail having occurred. Additional areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms then pushed across portions of the state this afternoon and evening, though no severe t'storms occurred. Additional areas of showers and t'storms will move across Northern and Central Illinois tonight, with potential for some severe t'storms. A marginal environment will be in place, but will be enough to support a minimal to limited severe t'storm threat across Northern and Central Illinois. Large hail will the main severe weather threat.
Saturday morning-Saturday night...
Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning, as a warm front quickly lifts northward across the state. Some of this activity may be severe, with large hail being the main threat. This activity will quickly clear out of most of the state by late morning to early afternoon, as the aforementioned warm front lifts into Northern Illinois by early to mid afternoon. Along and south of the warm front, a favorable environment will be in place, with low to moderate instability, good moisture, great forcing and great shear expected. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along a front, which is expected to be in the vicinity of the Mississippi River by mid afternoon. This activity will quickly race northeast across the state, posing a severe weather threat, potentially significant. Upwards of an elevated to considerable severe t'storm risk exists across portions of the state. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an increased tornado risk due to the environment expected to be in place. Trends are increasing for the potential for a significant severe t'storm event across the state on Saturday.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight and Saturday morning-Saturday night.
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