It will be a fairly quiet week across the Midwest, including here in Illinois but we seem to be in a pattern of late week and/or weekend systems across the area and this next late week period will yet again feature another potential storm system. This one much like the last, will have the potential for more impactful winter weather, including accumulating snow. I dig into some initital information and thoughts below...
Much like our last couple of weather systems, this one is also originating from out across the Pacific Ocean but will take a different path than the previous two. This system will crest a ridge located out west as it comes ashore the Pacific Northwest during the week, eventually turning more southeast after it crosses the northern Rockies.
Our potential winter system will be coming ashore on Tuesday evening and early Wednesday before slowly making the trip into the central plains by Thursday afternoon and evening. Beyond that and as one would expect at this range, model guidance begins to differ on the handling on the upper level low and what implications it will have on the Midwest.
One thing to watch with this system or a question that remains up in the air is just how much cold air will available for this system. Taking an ensemble forecast which is an average of 20 models, we can see that the mean forecast shows "enough" cold air for snow across the Midwest and here in Illinois, but much of the more impressive cold is well to our northeast confined to southeast Canada. Also to note, there is already a decent signal for an area of low pressure across central Illinois.
Stay tuned for continued updates but the areas in orange right now are most at risk for accumulating snow later this week and potentially into the start of next weekend. A lot of things remain up in the air but there is enough of a signal of a wintry system at this juncture.
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