(9:00PM - 1/22/20) What seems to be a never ending pattern we are stuck in recently, yet another late week/weekend winter storm will affect the state, from today through Saturday. This storm system will be of long duration, with light to moderate accumulations of wintry precipitation are likely across a large portion of the state.
A complex setup is beginning to unfold across the region, from now on into the weekend. Several upper air disturbances moving through the region will interact with each other during this time. The result will be the development of a storm system, which will loop through the region. During this period, an extended period of precipitation is likely across the state, from today through Saturday. Snow will be favored for much of Northern and Central Illinois for most of this period, with rain and a mix more likely across Eastern and Southern Illinois. Model guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement regarding this period.
Snow and mixed precipitation has started to push into Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois this evening. This activity is expected to slowly expand across the rest of the state tonight and into Thursday morning. Precipitation will then continue across much of the state from this point right on into Saturday, before slowly ending Saturday afternoon. Much of Northern and Central Illinois has a good shot at seeing most of the precipitation during this period fall as snow, with only short periods of mixed precipitation or rain expected. Across Eastern and Southern Illinois, much of the precipitation will fall as a mix of precipitation and rain. The most noteworthy part of this system will likely be Friday morning through Saturday afternoon, when periods of moderate to possibly heavy snow will be possible across portions of Northern and Central Illinois.
Below are maps featuring estimated start times of precipitation tonight, and then estimated times precipitation ending on Saturday. These visual representations will be much better than several sentences of text, which gets confusing.
Final snowfall totals are expected in the 3-6" range across most of Northern and Central Illinois, with amounts tapering south and east from there. It should be mentioned that marginal surface temperatures combined with the prolonged nature of the snow, will likely keep accumulations in check, and lower than what the could have been in a normal winter setup. Minor sleet/ice accumulations will be possible as well, across Central and Southern Illinois.
Below is our TAM snowfall forecast for this event.
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