(9:00PM - 2/4/20) In the wake of two lead waves moving through the region, a main storm system is expected to move through the region, Wednesday through Thursday. Accumulating snow will be likely across a large portion of the state during this time.
Two lead waves have been moving through the region Monday through tonight, ahead of the main storm system which will be moving through the region Wednesday through Thursday. As has been the case much of this winter season, model guidance has had a difficult time handling the overall situation, even in the short term. That continues to be the case, with a southward and drier trend among guidance today, this after a northward and wetter trend was shown yesterday. Have been hedging towards a middle ground solution the past few updates, and will continue to do so with this update.
Wednesday afternoon-Thursday afternoon...
The main storm system in this sequence will move through the region, Wednesday through Thursday. Snow is expected to spread into Southwest and Western Illinois by later Wednesday morning. This activity will then spread across much of the state Wednesday afternoon and evening, then continuing into Thursday afternoon, before ending. Across much of the state precipitation will fall as snow, with the exception being across Southern and Eastern Illinois, where a mix of rain/ice/sleet/snow will be likely. Snow will likely be light to moderate, with brief periods of heavy snow being possible across Central Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening. Upwards of 3-6" of snow will be likely within the main snowfall axis across the heart of the state, with tapering amounts on either side of this main axis. Locally higher amounts in excess of 6” are possible within the main axis. Minor sleet/ice accumulation is also possible across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.
It should be noted that across Northeast Illinois, conditions will be favorable for lake enhanced and lake effect snow. This will likely keep snow going into Thursday night across this area, while also adding to snowfall totals.
Final snowfall totals of 3-6" are expected in an axis across the state, with tapering amounts on either side of this axis. Locally higher amounts in excess of 6” are possible within the main axis.
Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event.
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