(1:30AM Sunday - 6/12/22) A complex scenario is expected for Monday, with a wide range in potential outcomes being possible at this time. Given the the uncertainty, this will preclude any higher or more concentrated areas of high severe t'storm risk at this time. Even so, enough confidence does exist for some severe t'storm threat on Monday to issue a severe t'storm forecast at this time.
It is expected that one or two disturbances that originate in the Plains Sunday night, will move eastward through the region on Monday. Timing, location and strength of these disturbances passing through the region will play a significant role in the quality, location and timing of the severe t'storm potential across Northern Illinois and in the region on Monday. As these disturbances move through the region, it is likely they will be accompanied by severe t'storms, as activity moves east-southeast across the region.
Stay tuned to further updates regarding this potential, as new information becomes available and the forecast is fine tuned.
-Late Monday morning through early Monday night.
-A level 1-2 severe t'storm risk is in place. Isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms will be possible, posing a risk of damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado.