(11:45AM - 10/10/21) A storm system moving through the region will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night.
A storm system move from the Southern Plains today, and then through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes on Monday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Monday morning through early Monday night. With this update little to no change was needed to the previous forecast with this update.
Monday Morning - Monday Night, Oct 11th...
Areas of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to move across portions of the state, Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. In the wake of this early activity, there is a question as to how much atmospheric recovery occurs, which will dictate the level of severe t'storm potential with the main round of activity expected. As of now, there is expected to be at least some recovery with clearing and destabilization across the state, in the wake of earlier activity. An arc of scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop late Monday morning into early Monday afternoon across Eastern Missouri and Western/Southwestern Illinois. This activity will then spread northeastward across the state, posing a severe t'storm risk. As of now, it appears the environment across the state will be supportive of some severe t'storm threat, though of lower risk level. This environment will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 60's, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats. Should it look more likely better recovery will occur across the state, leading to a better and more supportive environment, higher severe t'storm probabilities could be needed in later updates.
Below are the severe t'storm forecast for this event.