Mon-Wed, Feb 3-5th Wintry Period Update #1

(7:00PM - 2/3/20) Multiple disturbances/storm systems are expected to move through the region the next few days, bringing with them the chance for accumulating wintry precipitation across portions the state.

Synopsis...
No significant changes are needed with this update, thus will continue with previous forecast.

For the past several days, model guidance has been showing wintry potential for this week. However, guidance has also been in a high amount of disagreement. From showing a big storm system, to multiple smaller waves, things have been all over the board. As time has gone on, guidance has honed in on two lead waves that are expected to move through the region, through Wednesday...followed by a main storm system to move through the region Wednesday and Thursday. We have decided to split this period up, focusing on the two lead waves with this post, and the main storm system in separate updates...as it will be more of a concern.

Monday afternoon-Tuesday afternoon...
The first disturbance is moving through the region, tonight through Tuesday. Scattered areas of rain have already pushed across portions of Central and Southern Illinois this afternoon and evening. Additional areas of scattered and light precipitation will develop and spread across the state, this evening through Tuesday afternoon. Want to stress that this activity will be light and scattered, with not all areas likely to see it. Central and Southern Illinois will see rain during this time, with a rain/snow/mix possible across Northern Illinois. Little to no snow accumulation is expected across Northern Illinois during this time.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning...
​A second disturbance is expected to move through the region, Tuesday into Wednesday. An area of precipitation will once again develop and spread across the state, Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. This activity will be more widespread and organized, compared to the first wave. Across Central Illinois, rain will transition to snow Tuesday afternoon evening, and then continuing into late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Southern Illinois will see rain during this time, with little to no precipitation expected across Northern Illinois. Light snowfall accumulation of a dusting to 1.5" will be possible across Central Illinois during this time.

Below is the TAM snowfall forecast this this period.

JP

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