(1:30PM - 5/8/19) Midday update regarding another day with severe t’storm potential across portions of the state.
As was previously discussed, there were two potential scenarios for today’s threat. Model guidance and observations suggest the second scenario is looking more likely with time. With that said...In the wake for morning showers and isolated t’storm across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, a warm front is rapidly lifting northward across the state. This warm front started across Southern Illinois this morning, and will make it to Northern Illinois by later this afternoon. South of this warm front an environment will be in place featuring modest instability, good moisture, and good shear. Scattered showers and t’storm a are expected to develop across Northwest Missouri, Eastern Iowa, Northwest and Western Illinois this afternoon. This activity will then spread northeast across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois. Given the aforementioned environment in place, some severe t’storm are possible. All modes of severe weather are possible, including a tornado threat near the triple point and warm front...Across Western and Northwest Illinois.
In addition to the aforementioned activity from this afternoon into early tonight, additional periods of rain and t’storm a will push across much of the state from this evening into tonight. An isolated strong to severe t’storm is possible, with wind and hail the main threats.
Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecast for today.
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