Happy hump day everyone. As mentioned in the previous article, we've still got the potential for heavy rain and flooding this weekend. Although judging by the inbox, the vast majority of us are more concerned with some buzz already happening about more snow next week. Let's take a brief first look.
Yes, some of the global models are tracking another storm system across our region, with enough cold air for snow.
Wait just a second though. We are still about a week out. Details are sketchy at best. In fact, both the GFS and EURO are struggling with this system. Some runs it is there, others it is completely gone.
One reason for this; this system would be coming on the heels of our weekend heavy rain maker. What happens with that system can affect what happens with this system, even if we get a system at all. The large scale troughing pattern in place is one that promotes an active storm track. Sometimes the models try too hard to spin up storms in this regime.
Here is a look at 3 of the last 4 GFS runs and youll see everything from heavy snow to barely any at all.
0z - enjoy your dusting.
12z - BUY ALL THE BREAD AND CLOSE THE SCHOOLS
18z - Eh, Im from IL and can shovel this in flip flops.
Like we say so many times here at ISC, you should stop following any page that posts a snowfall map from the 12z with a big headline saying more big snow is coming. There is way too much model volatility at this point to call for a big snow, or even any at all.
We have to get through the weekend system first and see if the models can get a better grip on what may happen next week. We do like keeping you as prepared as possible though, so its worth mentioning to you all. Especially after getting some questions.
At the very least, I would think we could count on at least a minor system. We will keep you posted on this. Coming more recently though will be heavy rain on Saturday, and we'll be covering that as well.
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