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(1:00PM - 9/21/19) The combination of a storm system moving through the region and the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda, will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state today through Sunday.
Several waves of organized rain and t’storms will be likely across the state through Sunday night. The most concentrated area for this activity will be across Northern and Central Illinois. Across this area, widespread rainfall total this weekend will be in the 1-3” range, with isolated corridors of 3-6” totals not out of the question for portions of Western into Northern Illinois. These high rainfall totals over a relatively short period of time will lead to flooding concerns for much of Northern and Central Illinois, including portions of Northern Illinois that have already been impacted with heavy rainfall totals and flooding the past few weeks. We have included a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois in a moderate threat for flooding potential, with an isolated major threat a possibility for some areas. Below is the TAM flood forecast for today-Sunday. 
JP
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(10:00PM - 9/20/19) The combination of a storm system moving through the region and the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda, will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state Saturday and Sunday.
Several waves of organized rain and t’storms will be likely across the state from Saturday morning through Sunday night. The most concentrated area for this activity will be across Northern and Central Illinois. Across this area, widespread rainfall total this weekend will be in the 1-3” range, with isolated 3-6” total not out of the question for portions of Western into Northern Illinois. These high rainfall totals over a relatively short period of time will lead to flooding concerns for much of Northern and Central Illinois, including portions of Northern Illinois that have already been impacted with heavy rainfall totals and flooding the past few weeks. We have included a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois in a moderate threat for flooding potential, with an upgrade to a high threat possible for some areas in future updates. Below is the TAM flood forecast for this Saturday-Sunday. 
JP
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What remains of tropical storm Imelda is currently inundating southeast Texas with heavy rainfall. As the system slowly moves away from that region it has its eyes set on the midwest. Imelda's remnants may merge with an approaching cold front coming from the northwest. The two energy sources combining over Illinois could set the stage for heavy, tropical like rains this weekend.
Below we can see the two pieces on today's op NAM run.
Once these two systems combine, this should allow for a large field of heavy rain to develop, combined with the tropical moisture from Imelda, and the forcing provided by the cold front from the northwest. This may perfectly come together right over Illinois.
Exact timing and intensity details need to be worked out, but right now the most favored time for heavy rains appears to be late Saturday night into Sunday. Some of the hi-res models are spitting out impressive 4+" totals when it is all said and done
As of now, it appears at least a period of heavy rainfall is likely, the biggest factor in terms of flooding will be how fast it moves and where the heaviest axis of rain sets up. Some areas of Illinois are much drier than others and will be able to absorb more rain. There are still some details to work out, and when needed we will push out more updates, including a Flash Flood TAM.
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(7:00AM - 9/12/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, this afternoon into tonight.
9/12/19 - This Morning-Tonight’s Forecast... A storm system will be pushing across the region today. A warm front is expected to push northward across Northern Illinois today, with clearing and destabilization likely to occur across the state. Scattered showers and t'storms are likely to develop across Northern Illinois, in the vicinity of the warm front during the afternoon. This activity will push eastward across this area, this evening and into tonight. Additional scattered showers and t'storms that develop along the cold front across Iowa and Missouri during the afternoon, will also push across Northern and Central Illinois this evening and tonight. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, high moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support a widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out...Especially in the vicinity of the warm front across Northern Illinois. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this morning-tonight. 
JP
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(9:30PM - 9/12/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Thursday.
9/12/19 - Thursday Morning-Night Forecast... A storm system will be pushing across the region on Thursday. Ahead of this system, along a warm front, scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of far Northern Illinois. In the wake of this early activity, the warm front is expected to push back northward across Northern Illinois, along with some clearing and destabilization likely to occur across the state. Scattered showers and t'storms are likely to develop across Northern Illinois, in the vicinity of the warm front during the afternoon. This activity will push eastward across this area, into Thursday evening. Additional scattered showers and t'storms that develop along the cold front across Iowa and Missouri during the afternoon, will also push across Northern and Central Illinois Thursday evening and night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, high moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support a widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out...Especially in the vicinity of the warm front across Northern Illinois. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Thursday morning-night. 
JP
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(12:00PM - 9/12/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Thursday.
9/12/19 - Thursday Morning-Night Forecast... A storm system will be pushing across the region on Thursday. Ahead of this system, along a warm front, scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing Thursday morning across portions of Northern Illinois. In the wake of this early activity, the warm front is expected to push back northward across Northern Illinois, along with some clearing and destabilization likely to occur across the state. Scattered showers and t'storms are likely to develop across Northern Illinois, in the vicinity of the warm front during the afternoon. This activity will push eastward across this area, into Thursday night. Additional scattered showers and t'storms that develop along the cold front in Iowa and Missouri during the afternoon, will also push across Northern and Central Illinois Thursday evening and night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, high moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support a widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out...Especially in the vicinity of the warm front across Northern Illinois. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Thursday morning-night. 
JP
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(5:45AM - 9/3/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, this morning into tonight.
9/3/19 - This Morning-Tonight's Forecast... An area of rain and t’storms along an advancing warm front has spread across much of Northern Illinois early this morning. This activity will also spread into portions of Central Illinois, as it continues for both areas into late morning. An isolated strong to severe t'storm Is possible, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. In the wake of this activity, some clearing and destabilization will occur ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional isolated to scattered showers and t’storms will develop this afternoon along this front, across Northeast into Central Illinois. This activity will then push east-southeast across the state from later this afternoon into tonight. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, moderate moisture and good shear will be in place. This will help support and isolated severe t’storm threat across Northeast and Central Illinois. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this morning-tonight. 
JP
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(12:30PM - 8/29/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, this afternoon into night.
8/29/19 - This Afternoon-Tonight's Forecast... A storm system and associated cold front is sweeping across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front this afternoon across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward, across portions of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. An environment in place featuring low instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated severe t'storm threat across portions of Northeast and Western Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A few changes this update... Model guidance from last night was in full agreement in showing the potential for widespread showers and t'storms, with at least widely scattered severe t'storm potential. However, model guidance from this morning did a complete reversal, showing a mostly dry frontal passage now...and only an isolated chance for showers/t'storms and an isolated severe t'storm potential. Observations from this morning and early afternoon support the new solution, thus have significantly cut back on severe probabilities for Northern and Central Illinois. Many locations may end up seeing a dry frontal passage, with Western and far Northeast having the best chance for showers, t'storms and an isolated severe t'storm. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon-tonight. 
JP
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(9:30PM - 8/28/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, Thursday afternoon into night.
8/29/19 - Thursday Morning-Night Forecast... A storm system and associated cold front will be sweeping across the region on Thursday. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front during the afternoon, across Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into Thursday night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. With this update we have expanded severe t'storm probabilities. An upgrade to higher severe t'storm probabilities is possible in future updates. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Thursday morning-night. 
JP
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(11:45AM - 8/28/19) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state, Thursday afternoon into night.
8/29/19 - Thursday Morning-Night Forecast... A storm system and associated cold front will be sweeping across the region on Thursday. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of this front during the afternoon, across Wisconsin, Iowa and Northern Illinois. This activity will then sweep southeastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois the rest of the afternoon and into Thursday night. An environment in place featuring moderate instability, moderate moisture and moderate shear will be in place. This will help support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm threat across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for Thursday morning-night. 
JP
Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 833-369-3800 |
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