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(12:30PM - 3/26/20) A storm system is expected to move through the region over the coming days, and along with it will come a severe t'storm threat for Friday and Saturday.
Friday morning-Friday night... Areas of scattered showers and t'storms will be ongoing early Friday morning across Missouri. This activity is expected to spread eastward, into Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning. This activity will then continues in periods across these areas into Friday afternoon. Re-newed development of showers and t'storms will occur across Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri Friday afternoon, with this activity then likely to push northeast into Central and Southern Illinois Friday evening into night. A marginal environment will be in place, but will be enough to support a minimal to limited severe t'storm threat across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and large hail will the the severe weather threats.
Saturday morning-Saturday night...
Scattered areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across the state Saturday morning, as a warm front quickly lifts northward across the state. This activity will quickly clear out of most of the state by late morning to early afternoon, as the aforementioned warm front lifts into Northern Illinois by early to mid afternoon. Along and south of the warm front, a favorable environment will be in place, with low instability, good moisture and great forcing expected. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop along a dry line, which is expected to be int he vicinity of the Mississippi River by early to mid afternoon. This activity will quickly race northeast across the state, posing some severe weather threat. All modes of severe weather will be possible. While it is a bit too early to delineate specific risk levels at this time, the next update will likely feature the first outlook for Saturday. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for Friday morning-Friday night. 
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(7:30PM - 3/22/20) A brief short term update regarding the ongoing snow event across portions of the state...
Snow has been spreading across Northern and Central Illinois from this morning, through this afternoon and now into this evening. Upwards of 1-3" of snow has already occurred across a good portion of Northern and Central Illinois, with a narrow axis of more 2-4" snowfall amounts having already occurred near I-80, in a Yorkville-Joliet-Kankakee corridor. Steady light to moderate snow, with periods of heavier snow, will continue across Northern and portions of Central Illinois into tonight. Activity will slowly end from west to east later tonight on into early Monday morning. Final snowfall will be widespread in the 1-3" range across Northern and Central Illinois, with 3-6" amounts being more common in the aforementioned Yorkville-Joliet-Kankakee corridor and nearby vicinity. 
(12:15PM - 3/22/20) Another sign that winter is hanging on from time to time...It continues to look like that a minor snow event will occur across Northern and Central Illinois, today into Monday...as a weak storm system moves through the region. With this update we have only had minor adjustments, based on real-time observations and guidance.
Synopsis...
A weak storm system will be moving through the region, today into Monday. Model guidance has been in agreement on this event occurring, snowfall amounts and snowfall axis location. Precipitation spread into West-Central and Southwest Illinois this morning, with a dusting to 1-3" of snow having already occurred across these areas. Precipitation will continue to spread across much of the state through the day and through tonight. Across Northern Illinois, all of this event is expected to be snow, with the transition zone of rain to snow expected to set up across Central Illinois. Precipitation will continue into very late tonight night or early Monday morning, before ending. Given the recent mild/warm temperatures and expected marginal temperatures during this event, snow will likely not efficiently accumulate. Thus, highest accumulation will be on colder surfaces (such as grass), with road accumulation far less. These temperature factors will also play a roll in final snowfall accumulation amounts as well. Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1-3" are expected across Northern and Central Illinois. 
(12:15AM - 3/22/20) Another sign that winter is hanging on from time to time...It continues to look like that a minor snow event will occur across Northern and Central Illinois, Sunday into Monday...as a weak storm system moves through the region. With this update we have adjusted the location of the snowfall axis, given latest information.
Synopsis...
A weak storm system is expected to push through the region, Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has been in agreement on this event occurring, snowfall amounts and snowfall axis location...though we have recently seen a shift southward in snowfall axis location. Precipitation is expected to spread into the western half of the state Sunday morning. Across Northern Illinois, all of this event is expected to be snow, with the transition zone of rain to snow expected to set up across Central Illinois. Precipitation will continue into very late Sunday night or early Monday morning, before ending. Given the recent mild/warm temperatures and expected marginal temperatures during this event, snow will likely not efficiently accumulate. Thus, highest accumulation will be on colder surfaces (such as grass), with road accumulation far less. These temperature factors will also play a roll in final snowfall accumulation amounts as well. Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1-3" will be possible across Northern and Central Illinois. 
(11:45AM - 3/21/20) Another sign that winter is hanging on from time to time...It continues to look like that a minor snow event will occur across Northern and Central Illinois, Sunday into Monday...as a weak storm system moves through the region. With this update we have increased expected snowfall amounts for some areas.
Synopsis...
A weak storm system is expected to push through the region, Sunday into Monday. There is high model guidance agreement for a minor accumulating snowfall event to impact portions of the state during this period, very good agreement on location of the snowfall axis, now finally good agreement on snowfall amounts. Precipitation is expected to spread into the western half of the state Sunday morning. Across Northern Illinois, all of this event is expected to be snow, with the transition zone of rain to snow expected to set up across Central Illinois. Precipitation will continue into very late Sunday night or early Monday morning, before ending. Given the recent mild/warm temperatures and expected marginal temperatures during this event, snow will likely not efficiently accumulate. Thus, highest accumulation will be on colder surfaces (such as grass), with road accumulation far less. These temperature factors will also play a roll in final snowfall accumulation amounts as well. Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1-3" will be possible across Northern and Central Illinois. 
(12:15AM - 3/21/20) Another sign that winter is hanging on from time to time...There continues to be the increasing possibility for a minor snow event across Northern and Central Illinois, Sunday into Monday...as a weak storm system moves through the region.
Synopsis...
A weak storm system is expected to push through the region, Sunday into Monday. There is high model guidance agreement for a minor accumulating snowfall event to impact portions of the state during this period, and very good agreement on location of the snowfall axis, though there has been a lack of agreement on snowfall amounts. Precipitation is expected to spread into the western half of the state Sunday morning. Across Northern Illinois, all of this event is expected to be snow, with the transition zone of rain to snow expected to set up across Central Illinois. Precipitation will continue into very late Sunday night or early Monday morning, before ending. Given the recent mild/warm temperatures and expected marginal temperatures during this event, snow will likely not efficiently accumulate. Thus, highest accumulation will be on colder surfaces (such as grass), with road accumulation far less. These temperature factors will also play a roll in final snowfall accumulation amounts as well. Final snowfall totals upwards of a dusting to 1-3" will be possible across Northern and Central Illinois. 
Numerical model guidance over the last day or so has grown more bullish with a system moving into and through the Midwest and one that could bring accumulating snow to portions of the state on Sunday afternoon and evening. An initial write up on this potential follows below....
Below is one models take on the evolution of this system, beginning late Saturday night and ending on Monday morning. Widespread precipitation looks to develop initially to our southwest Sunday morning before continuing further northeast into a large portion of Illinois. Thermal profiles, or temperatures at both the surface and aloft would be supportive of snow across the northern half or third of the state while further downstate would remain mostly if not all rain. The best chance for snow accumulations looks to be Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially lasting into early Monday morning depending on the speed of this system.
Below is our initial thoughts on this system with a potentially wide accumulating snow axis, so stay tuned for new updates over the next day or so as we get closer to Sunday.
(11:15AM - 3/19/20) A storm system moving through the region today will bring the chance for severe t'storms to much of the state. We have downgraded the severe t'storm risk level across portions of the state with this update, due to concerns of ongoing rain/t'storms through the day limiting overall severe t'storm potential.
As a storm system and associated cold front sweeps into and through the region, the chance for severe t'storms will exist across the state today into tonight. Areas of showers and t'storms have been spreading across the state this morning, and will continue to do so into this afternoon, as a warm front lifts northward across the state. Beyond the warm frontal passage, warm temperatures, ample moisture and a marginal overall environment will exist. It is expected that some of the activity that will traverse Southern Illinois will re-strengthen, along with new development being likely, with severe t'storm potential possible. Further north, re-newed development of showers and t'storms are likely across Missouri and Iowa this afternoon, which will eventually push into Northern and Central Illinois during this evening and early tonight. Severe t'storms potential will also be possible with some of this activity. Environmental conditions featuring low instability, modest moisture and good forcing will be in place. This will aide in a minimal to limited severe t'storm threat across much of the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible for these areas.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
(9:30PM - 3/18/20) A storm system moving through the region on Thursday will bring the chance for severe t'storms to much of the state. Will continue with previous forecast for this update, as little to no change is needed at this time.
As a storm system and associated cold front sweeps into and through the region, the chance for severe t'storms will be possible for Thursday. Areas of showers and t'storms will spread across much of the state Thursday morning into early afternoon, as a warm front lifts northward across the state. Beyond the warm frontal passage, warm temperatures, ample moisture and a decent overall environment will exist. Re-newed scattered showers and t'storms will develop during the afternoon across Iowa, Missouri and into Western Illinois. This activity is expected to push northeastward across the state during the Thursday mid-afternoon into Thursday nighttime-frame. Environmental conditions featuring low instability, modest moisture and good forcing will be in place. This will aide in an limited severe t'storm threat across much of the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible for these areas. An upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities may be needed in future updates for portions of the state. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
(12:45PM - 3/18/20) A storm system moving through the region on Thursday will bring the chance for severe t'storms to much of the state.
As a storm system and associated cold front sweeps into and through the region, the chance for severe t'storms will be possible for Thursday. Areas of showers and t'storms will spread across much of the state Thursday morning into early afternoon, as a warm front lifts northward across the state. Beyond the warm front passage, warm temperatures, ample moisture and a decent overall environment will exist. Re-newed scattered showers and t'storms will develop during the afternoon across Iowa, Missouri and into Western Illinois. This activity is expected to push northeastward across the state during the late afternoon into Thursday night. Environmental conditions featuring low instability, modest moisture and good forcing will be in place. This will aide in an limited severe t'storm threat across much of the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible for these areas. An upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities may be needed in future updates for portions of the state. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
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