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(11:30AM - 11/10/20) A storm system moving through the region on today will bring a low end threat for severe t'storms to much of Northern and Central Illinois.
Summary...
With this update we have upgraded severe t'storm probabilities across much of Northern and Central Illinois, to level 2 severe t'storm risk (limited). The overall thinking from previous updates is unchanged...And the upgrade in probability is due to increasing confidence. A broken line of showers and t'storms has developed this morning along an advancing cold front, across Eastern Iowa and Missouri. This line is expected to rapidly push northeastward across much of the state, this afternoon through early tonight. Upwards of a level 2 (limited) severe t'storm threat is expected to exist with this activity, across much of Northern and Central Illinois. A strengthening storm system will be moving through the region, accompanied by a strong 110KT jet streak. This will be juxtaposed to reservoir of dew points in the low 60's, great shear, and great forcing...The only negating factor is limited insatiability, less than 1000J/KG. This high shear/low instability environment will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat...with damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado possible. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this morning - tonight. 
JP
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(7:00AM - 11/10/20) A storm system moving through the region today will bring a period of high winds to the state, this morning through tonight.
Summary...
A strengthening storm system moving through the region today will bring a period of high winds to the state, this morning through tonight. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of up to 65KT will be in place. Ample mixing is expected, which will transport higher winds to the surface. Wind gusts of 35-50MPH will be likely this morning through tonight, across a large portion of the state. Strong winds will be southerly this morning into this afternoon, ahead of the storm system...Eventually becoming northwesterly on the backside of the storm system, this evening into tonight. Below is the high wind forecast for this morning - tonight. 
JP
(8:15PM - 11/9/20) A storm system moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a low end threat for severe t'storms to much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois.
Summary...
Previous forecast is on track, no significant changes needed... A few earlier day scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be possible Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. However, the main focus will come a bit later...As a broken line of showers and t'storms is expect to develop along an advancing cold front, across Eastern Iowa, Missouri and Western Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This line is expected to rapidly push northeastward across much of the state, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. A level 1 (minimal) severe t'storm threat is expected to exist with this activity, across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois. A strengthening storm system will be moving through the region, accompanied by a strong 110KT jet streak. This will be juxtaposed to reservoir of dew points in the low 60's, great shear, and great forcing...The only negating factor is limited insatiability, less than 1000J/KG. This high shear/low instability environment will be favorable for an isolated severe t'storm threat...with damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado possible should any t'storm become severe. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for Tuesday morning - Tuesday night. 
JP
(7:00PM - 11/9/20) A storm system moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a period of high winds to the state, Tuesday morning through Tuesday night.
Summary...
A strengthening storm system moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a period of high winds to the state, Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of up to 65KT will be in place. Ample mixing is expected, which will transport higher winds to the surface. Wind gusts of 35-50MPH will be likely Tuesday morning through Tuesday night, across a large portion of the state. Strong winds will be southerly Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, ahead of the storm system...Eventually becoming northwesterly on the backside of the storm system, Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Below is the high wind forecast for Tuesday morning - Tuesday night. 
JP
(1:00PM - 11/9/20) A storm system moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a low end threat for severe t'storms to much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois.
Summary...
A few earlier day scattered showers and isolated t'storms will be possible Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. However, the main focus will come a bit later...As a broken line of showers and t'storms is expect to develop along an advancing cold front, across Eastern Iowa, Missouri and Western Illinois Tuesday afternoon. This line is expected to rapidly push northeastward across much of the state, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. A level 1 (minimal) severe t'storm threat is expected to exist with this activity, across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois. A strengthening storm system will be moving through the region, accompanied by a strong 110KT jet streak. This will be juxtaposed to reservoir of dew points in the low 60's, great shear, and great forcing...The only negating factor is limited insatiability, less than 1000J/KG. This high shear/low instability environment will be favorable for an isolated severe t'storm threat...with damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado possible should any t'storm become severe. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for Tuesday morning - Tuesday night. 
JP
(8:15PM - 11/6/20) A period of unseasonably and record warm temperatures have been ongoing across the state and region the past few days, and will continue into early next week.
Summary... The combination of a trough in the Western US and a ridge in place across the Central and Eastern US, is bringing a prolonged period of unseasonably and record warm temperatures to the state and region.
High temperatures across the state Monday (Nov 2nd) through today (Friday Nov 6th) have been in the 60's and 70's across the state. A few record high temperatures have been tied or broken for some areas across the state during the past few days. High temperatures Saturday (Nov 7th) through Tuesday (Nov 10th) will continue to be in the 60's and 70's across the state. There is a high likelihood that numerous additional record high temperatures will likely to be tied or broken for several areas across the state in the coming days.
Not only are high temperatures warm, but daily low temperatures have been somewhat mild in the 40's and 50's across the state as well. From Saturday (Nov 7th) through Tuesday (Nov 10th), low temperatures across the state will be even more on the mild side, generally staying in the 50's to even low 60's potentially. This will lead to some potentially near record to record warm low temperatures for some areas across the state during this period. 
JP
(12:45PM - 10/19/20) A disturbance moving through the region will bring a surprise snow event to portions of Northern Illinois this afternoon.
Summary... A disturbance moving through the region will bring a surprise snow event to portions of Northern Illinois this afternoon. This event has not been well modeled, as most model guidance had little to no precipitation, let alone snow. (Kudos to the GFS model for consistently being the model to show some snow). An area of snow has been moving across Iowa this morning into early this afternoon, with a swath of accumulation across the heart of Iowa...Upwards of 3-8" in some areas north of Des Moines. While temperatures have been well above freezing this morning across Northwest Illinois, dynamic and evaporative cooling is accruing, which will allow precipitation to fall as snow. This area of snow is now entering Northwest Illinois, where a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely this afternoon. Accumulation is possible, if not likely, in a swath across portions of Northwest Illinois...Where upwards of 1-4" may be possible in the heaviest axis. Outside of this axis, only up to a dusting is possible. Further east, warmer temperatures will into the 40's exist across North-Central and Northeast Illinois. While some cooling of temperatures may occur due to the aforementioned dynamic and evaporative cooling processes occurring, not enough cooling will be possible...Thus, across North-Central Illinois rain may only change over to snow or a rain/snow mix for a short time and only rain is expected across Northeast Illinois. Below is the snowfall forecast for this snow event. 
JP
(10:15AM - 10/17/20) A storm system moving through the region today will bring high winds and elevated fire danger to much of the state.
Summary... A storm system moving through the region will bring high winds and elevated fire danger to the state today. Winds are gradually increasing across the state this morning, with the period of highest winds likely from late this morning through early this evening, before diminishing during the evening. Wind gusts of 35-55MPH will be common across a large portion of the state during this period. Winds will be strong enough to blow around loose and light weight items, and potentially be enough to cause isolated minor tree damage. In addition to the high wind threat, an elevated fire danger will exist as well across the heart of the state. The combination of continued overall dry conditions across much of the state, lower dew points/humidity, and high winds...will lead to an elevated fire danger. Any fall field and foliage burning should be held off for calmer weather day. Below is the high wind and fire danger forecasts for this morning - tonight.
(8:45PM - 10/16/20) A storm system moving through the region on Saturday will bring high winds and elevated fire danger to much of the state.
Summary... A storm system moving through the region will bring high winds and elevated fire danger to the state on Saturday. Winds will gradually increase across the state Saturday morning, then continuing through the day, before diminishing during the evening. The period of highest winds will be roughly from late Saturday morning through early Saturday evening, when wind gusts of 35-55MPH will be common across a large portion of the state. Winds will be strong enough to blow around loose and light weight items, and potentially be enough to cause isolated minor tree damage. In addition to the high wind threat, an elevated fire danger will exist as well across the heart of the state. The combination of continued overall dry conditions across much of the state, lower dew points/humidity, and high winds...will lead to an elevated fire danger. Any fall field and foliage burning should be held off for calmer weather day. Below is the high wind and fire danger forecasts for Saturday morning - Saturday night.
(5:45PM - 10/15/20) A storm system moving through the region today will bring high winds and elevated fire danger to much of the state.
Summary... While a good portion of Northern and Central Illinois already saw a freeze and several occurrences of frost this month, the growing season has still not been deemed over...which is usually designated after a killing freeze (lows 28 degrees or colder) or by November. Thus, frost advisories and freeze warnings have been issued by the NWS across much of the state. A freeze to near freeze is expected across a large portion of the state tonight, with a frost likely across just about the entire state. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20's to low 30's across Northern Illinois (Low-upper 30's in immediate Chicago metro), the upper 20's to mid 30's across Central Illinois, to the low to upper 30's across Southern Illinois. It is possible that if conditions become prime, that a few usual rural/prone cold locations in Illinois could reach the mid 20's. 
JP
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