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(11:45AM - 7/24/21) A storm system moving through the region today will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this afternoon into tonight.
Summary... A storm system moved across the Northern Plains on Friday, and will push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes today. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this afternoon into tonight. The main questions for this event continue to revolve around coverage of activity, and the extent of the severe potential.
Forecast...
Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, July 24th... In the wake of a few isolated showers and t'storms this morning across Northern Illinois, ample clearing and destabilization is expected this afternoon. Development of scattered showers and t'storms is expected this afternoon along a southeastward advancing cold front, across Southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Iowa. This activity will then push southward across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, this afternoon into tonight. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with some of this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
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(11:00PM - 7/23/21) A heat wave is settling in to the region and will continue to impact the state through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures, high humidity and high heat indices are expected across the state and region during this period.
Summary.... A large ridge in place across the US will help extend hot and humid conditions into the state and region for several day period of time, from today through the middle of next week.
Forecast For Next Two Days...
Saturday, June 24th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the upper 80's to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's. Heat index values will be in the low 90's to mid 100's. Sunday, June 25th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's. Heat index values will be in the low 90's to mid 100's. 
JP
(10:00PM - 7/23/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region on Saturday, bringing severe t'storm potential to portions of the state Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Summary... A storm system moved across the Northern Plains today, and will push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The main questions for this event continue to revolve around coverage of activity, and the extent of the severe potential.
Forecast...
Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, July 24th... In the wake of a few isolated showers and t'storms Saturday morning across Northern Illinois, ample clearing and destabilization is expected. Development of scattered showers and t'storms is expected Saturday afternoon along a southeastward advancing cold front, across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. This activity will then push southward across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with some of this activity. This environment will feature high instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:30AM - 7/23/21) A heat wave will begin to affect portions of the state today, then settling in and continuing to impact the state through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures, high humidity and high heat indices are expected across the state and region during this period.
Summary.... A large ridge in place across the US will help extend hot and humid conditions into the state and region for several day period of time, from today through the middle of next week.
Forecast For Next Two Days...
Friday, June 23th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the mid 80's to low 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's. Heat index values will be in the upper 80's to upper 90's. Saturday, June 24th Forecast... High temperatures will range from the low to mid 90's across the state, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's. Heat index values will be in the mid 90's to mid 100's. 
JP
(10:00AM - 7/23/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region on Saturday, bringing severe t'storm potential to portions of the state Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Summary... A storm system will move across the Northern Plains today, then pushing eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday. This storm system will bring severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Model guidance has been showing some potential for this period for a few days now. The main questions as of now are storm coverage, and how far reaching severe potential will be.
Forecast...
Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, July 24th... In the wake of a few isolated showers and t'storms Saturday morning across Northern Illinois, ample clearing and destabilization is expected. Development of scattered showers and t'storms is expected Saturday afternoon along a southeastward advancing cold front, across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. This activity will then push southward across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. An environment will be in place supportive of a severe t'storm risk with some of this activity. This environment will feature moderate instability of 3,000-5,000J/KG, dew points in the low to upper 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:15AM - 7/16/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through tonight, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through tonight.
Summary... Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through tonight. With this update little to no change was needed for the going forecast for today/tonight.
Forecast...
This - Tonight, July 16th... Areas of showers and t'storms have been ongoing this morning across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur this afternoon across Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, this afternoon through early tonight. An environment will be in place that will be supportive of some severe t'storm potential with this activity across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event. 
Recap...
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night, July 14th... An initial complex of rain and t'storms moved across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Isolated t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Another complex of rain and t'storms moved across Northern Illinois Wednesday night. Once again, isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th... Several areas of rain and t'storms pushed across a large portion of the state, Thursday morning through Thursday night. A few isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe in Central Illinois Thursday afternoon, producing damaging winds and hail.
JP
(9:45PM - 7/15/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night. With this update little to no change was needed for the going forecast for Friday/Friday night.
Forecast...
Tonight, July 15th... Several areas of rain and t'storms have moved across much of the state today. A few isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe in Central Illinois this afternoon, producing damaging winds and hail. Additional areas of rain and t'storms will continue to affect portions of the state tonight, especially Central and Southern Illinois. A marginal severe t'storm environment continues to be in place across Southern Illinois. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across Southern Illinois for tonight. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Friday Morning - Friday Night, July 16th... Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur Friday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Friday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night, July 14th... An initial complex of rain and t'storms moved across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Isolated t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Another complex of rain and t'storms moved across Northern Illinois Wednesday night. Once again, isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail.
JP
(11:45AM - 7/15/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night. With this update portions of Central Illinois have been upgraded to a level 2 severe t'storm risk for today/tonight, while little to no change was needed for the going forecast for Friday/Friday night.
Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th... Areas of showers and isolated t'storms have been ongoing across portions of Northern Illinois this morning. Regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur this afternoon across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Central Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of the state, this afternoon through tonight. An environment will be in place that will be supportive of severe t'storms with this activity across Central and Southern Illinois. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Friday Morning - Friday Night, July 16th... Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is expected to occur Friday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Friday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Recap...
Wednesday Afternoon - Wednesday Night, July 14th... An initial complex of rain and t'storms moved across portions of Northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Isolated t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail. Another complex of rain and t'storms moved across Northern Illinois Wednesday night. Once again, isolated to widely scattered t'storms were severe, producing damaging winds and hail.
JP
(10:00PM - 7/14/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Friday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley through Friday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Friday night. Little to no change was needed with this update, as going forecasts are on track. Friday has now been included in this period, as severe potential is now possible for that day.
Forecast...
Tonight, July 14th... After an initial complex of rain and t'storms brought isolated severe t'storms to Northern Illinois this afternoon, a new complex of rain and t'storms across Iowa is expected to move across Northern Illinois tonight. An isolated severe t'storm potential will exist with this activity, given a favorable severe t'storm environment is in place. This environment features moderate instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th... Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Thursday morning. Regeneration and new development is then expected to occur Thursday afternoon across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Northern/Central Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Friday Morning - Friday Night, July 16th... Areas of showers and t'storms will be ongoing across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning. As another disturbance moves through, regeneration and new development of rain and t'storms is then expected to occur Friday afternoon across portions of Missouri and Southern Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Friday afternoon through Friday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(11:00AM - 7/14/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region today through Thursday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state this afternoon through Thursday night.
Summary... Multiple disturbances ejecting out of the Plains, will push eastward across the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley today through Thursday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this afternoon through Thursday night. Little to no change was needed with this update, as going forecasts are on track.
Forecast...
This Afternoon - Tonight, July 14th... As expected, a lead wave and associated complex of rain and t'storms that originated in the Plains last night has moved into Minnesota and Iowa this morning. A few t'storms have been severe with this complex. Some regeneration of activity may occur with this complex, as it affects portions of Wisconsin and Northern Illinois this afternoon. In the wake of this first complex, additional new development of areas of rain and t'storms associated with the main wave is expected across Southern Minnesota and Iowa this afternoon. This activity, in the form of a few clusters, is then expected to push eastward and across portions of Iowa, Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, this evening through tonight. An environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will exist today into tonight across Northern Illinois. The environment will feature moderate instability of 2,000-4,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-7.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Thursday Morning - Thursday Night, July 15th... Areas of showers and t'storms will likely be ongoing across portions Northern and Central Illinois Thursday morning. Regeneration and new development is then expected to occur during Thursday afternoon across portions of Iowa, Missouri and Northern/Central Illinois. This activity is then expected to push eastward and across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,500-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, good shear, good forcing, and poor lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across Northern Illinois. Damaging winds and hail will be the severe weather threats, though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Below are the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
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