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(10:15PM - Wednesday 3/9/22) A lead wave and main storm system are expected to impact the region and state, Thursday through Friday. During this period, a swath of accumulating snow is expected across the region and state.
Summary... Most model guidance is now in agreement regarding all aspects of this period of potential. With that said, the previous forecast is on track with little to no change needed with this update. An initial lead wave is expected to move from the Plains Thursday morning, through the Ohio Valley Thursday night, and then into the Great Lakes Friday morning as it weakens. A round of snow will move through the region and across the state with this lead wave, Thursday morning though Friday morning. Furthermore, a main storm system will develop across the Southern Mississippi Valley on Friday, and will then track into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday morning. This storm system will bring a renewed push of snow across the region and state, Friday morning through Friday night.
Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Friday Morning, March 10-11th ~ Lead Wave Event: An lead wave is expected to move from the Plains Thursday morning, through the Ohio Valley Thursday night, and then into the Great Lakes Friday morning as it weakens. This lead wave will be accompanied by an area of snow traveling along with it, affecting the region and portions of the state. Snow will first enter the state and move into portions of Western Illinois by mid to late Thursday morning. Snow will then spread across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, before ending Friday morning. Snow will vary in intensity during this period, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times. Friday Morning - Friday Night, March 11th ~ Main Storm System Event: As the main storm system moves through the region, an associated renewed push of snow will develop and move across the region and portions of the state, Friday morning through Friday night. This renewed push of snow will spread into portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning, continuing into Friday evening, before ending Friday night. Snow will vary in intensity during this time, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour possible at times. Below is the snowfall forecast for this two part event. 
Impacts...
-Widespread snow accumulation of 1-3" across a large portion of the state, with locally higher amounts possible in some areas. -Some travel impacts are possible across much of the state.
JP
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(10:45AM - Wednesday 3/9/22) A lead wave and main storm system are expected to impact the region and state, Thursday through Friday. During this period, a swath of accumulating snow is expected across the region and state.
Summary... There continues to be some disagreement within model guidance regarding some aspects of the potential for this period. However, at this time little to no changes were needed to the previous forecast. An initial lead wave is expected to move from the Plains Thursday morning, through the Midwest Thursday night, and then into the Great Lakes by Friday morning as it weakens. A round of snow will move through the region and across the state with this lead wave, Thursday morning though Friday afternoon. Furthermore, a main storm system will develop across the Southern Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon, and will then track into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday morning. This storm system will bring a renewed push of snow across the region and state, Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Friday Afternoon, March 10-11th ~ Lead Wave Event: An lead wave is expected to move from the Plains Thursday morning, through the Midwest Thursday night, and then into the Great Lakes by Friday morning as it weakens. This lead wave will be accompanied by an area of snow traveling along with it, affecting the region and portions of the state. Snow will move into portions of Western Illinois by mid to late Thursday morning. Snow will then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, before ending for many areas by midday Friday or early Friday afternoon. Snow will vary in intensity during this period, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times. Friday Morning - Friday Night, March 11th ~ Main Storm System Event: As the main storm system moves through the region, an associated renewed push of snow will develop and move across the region and portions of the state, Friday morning through Friday night. This renewed push of snow will spread into portions of Central and Southern Illinois Friday morning into Friday afternoon, continuing into Friday night, before ending late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Snow will vary in intensity during this time, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour possible at times. Below is the snowfall forecast for this two part event. 
Impacts...
-Widespread snow accumulation of 1-3" across a large portion of the state, with locally higher amounts possible in some areas. -Widespread travel impacts possible across much of the state.
JP
(10:45PM - Tuesday 3/8/22) A lead wave and main storm system are expected to impact the region and state, Thursday morning through Friday night. During this period, a swath of accumulating snow is expected across the region and state.
Summary... Over the past several days model guidance has been honing in on the potential for a two part event to affect the region and state, Thursday morning through Friday night. There is significant disagreement within model guidance at this time, thus changes to the forecast can be expected. Stay tuned to updates over the next several days regarding this potential. An initial lead wave is expected to move from the Plains Thursday morning, through the Midwest Thursday night, and then into the Great Lakes by Friday morning as it weakens. A round of snow will move through the region and across the state with this lead wave, Thursday morning though Friday afternoon. Furthermore, a main storm system will develop across the Southern Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon, and will then track into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday morning. This storm system will bring a renewed push of snow across the region and state, Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Forecast...
Thursday Morning - Friday Afternoon, March 10-11th ~ Lead Wave Event: An lead wave is expected to move from the Plains Thursday morning, through the Midwest Thursday night, and then into the Great Lakes by Friday morning as it weakens. This lead wave will be accompanied by an area of snow traveling along with it, affecting the region and portions of the state. Snow will move into portions of Western Illinois late Thursday morning. Snow will then spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, from Thursday afternoon through midday Friday, before ending for many areas. Snow will vary in intensity during this period, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times. Friday Afternoon - Friday Night, March 11th ~ Main Storm System Event: As the main storm system moves through the region, an associated renewed push of snow will develop and move across the region and portions of the state, midday Friday through Friday night. This renewed push of snow will spread into Southern Illinois around Midday Friday, continuing into Friday night, before ending late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Snow will vary in intensity during this time, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour possible at times. Below is the snowfall forecast for this two part event. 
Impacts...
-Widespread snow accumulation of 1-3" across a large portion of the state, with locally higher amounts possible in some areas. -Widespread travel impacts possible across much of the state.
JP
(6:45PM Monday - 3/7/22) A brief recap regarding the Sat-Sun, March 5-6th severe t'storm and high wind event that impacted the region and state during this time.
Overview... A storm system impacted the region Saturday, March 5th through Sunday, March 5th, which brought a severe t'storm and high wind event to the region and state during this time. Model guidance showed the potential for a high wind event several days out, with the severe t'storm risk not really ramping up potential wise until the last minute. A strengthening storm system moved from the Plains Saturday morning, through the Midwest Saturday night, and then through the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this afternoon through Sunday morning.
Summary...
Saturday Evening - Early Sunday Morning, March 5-6th ~ Severe T'Storm Episode: The severe t'storm activity that occurred across a large portion of the state Saturday night well exceeded forecast expectations. A few isolated showers and t'storms occurred across Northern and Central Illinois, Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon...However, none of this activity posed a severe t'storm risk. An additional like of scattered showers and t'storms developed across Iowa and Missouri Saturday afternoon, which then moved across Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. An isolated t'storm was severe with this activity. The main action came later, as the main line of severe t'storms that had developed and had been moving across Iowa and Missouri Saturday afternoon and evening, then pushed across much of Illinois Saturday night. Scattered to widespread severe t'storms occurred with this activity as it spread across the state, with damaging winds having been the mains severe weather occurrence. Below is a map representation of the severe weather reports and a listing of observed/measured severe t'storm damaging wind gusts across the state and adjacent areas.
Saturday Afternoon - Sunday Morning, March 5-6th ~ High Wind Episode:
A strengthening storm system moving the region brought a period of high winds to the state and region, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 50-70KT and 925MB winds of 40-55KT, translated across the area. Adequate mixing occurred at least up to 850MB, along with strong warm air advection ahead of the storm system and cold air advection behind the storm system, which aided in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this event there were two distinct period of higher winds. The first period featured southerly winds Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night, with wind gusts of 35-55MPH having occurred across Northern and Central Illinois. The second period featured westerly winds Saturday night through Sunday morning, with wind gusts of 35-65MPH having occurred across Northern and Central Illinois. Below is a listing of observed/measured high wind gusts from both periods of high winds across the state and adjacent areas.
Wrap Up...
-Scattered to widespread severe t'storms occurred across the state Saturday night, with damaging winds having been the main severe weather occurrence. -A period of high winds occurred across Northern and Central Illinois, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Wind gusts of 35-60MPH occurred during this period.
JP
(10:15PM Sunday - 3/6/22) A storm system will continue to impact the region and state, through midday Monday. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Summary... Model guidance and real time observations continue to support the going forecasts, thus little to no change is needed with this update. A storm system developed across the Southern Plains during the day today, with it set to track through he Ohio Valley tonight into Monday morning, and eventually into the Northeast by Monday night. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Wintry (Snow/Sleet) Aspect Forecast...
Tonight - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Snow/Sleet Event: Precipitation in the from of a snow/sleet/rain mix has moved into Western and Central Illinois late this evening and early tonight. This precipitation is continue to expand across Northern and Central Illinois tonight. With colder air filtering in on the north side of the storm system and some dynamic cooling taking place, precipitation will steadily turn to all snow with time across the northern half of the state. Periods of snow will then continue through mid to late Monday morning, before ending by midday Monday or early Monday afternoon. Snow will vary in intensity, with moderate to heavy snow being possible at times along with with snowfall rates of 0.5-1.0" an hour at times. A transition zone is also expected to set up, from roughly the southern Chicago metro area down into Western Illinois. In the vicinity of this transition zone, precipitation types may vary. Below is the snow/sleet forecast for this event. 
Severe T'Storm Risk/Heavy Rain/Flooding Aspect Forecast...
Tonight - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Severe T'Storm Event: The main risk for an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk will continue to exist across the southern half of the state, through Monday morning. As a storm system develops and moves into the region, a warm front has slowly lifted northward into the southern half of the state this evening and early tonight. This frontal boundary will continue to be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. Additionally, as the storm system moves through and passes the region, a cold front will then move southward across the southern half of the state overnight tonight into early Monday morning. This frontal boundary will also be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. In all, periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, through early Monday morning. An environment will be in place supportive of some severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature low instability of up to 1,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 5.5-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered severe t'storm risk (levels 1-3) across the southern half of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats. Tonight - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Heavy Rain/Flooding Event: Multiple periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, through early Monday morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times, with widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected in a corridor across Southern Illinois during this period of time, with locally higher amounts likely. Due to the combination of recent heavy rainfall/flooding during mid-late February and the expected rainfall, localized to scattered flooding is expected. Below are the severe t'storm and heavy rain/flooding forecast for this event.
Impacts...
-Snow/sleet accumulation of 1-3" across the northern half of the state, through midday Monday. -An isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm threat across the southern half of the state, through early Monday morning. -Widespread heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state, with a corridor of widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" (Locally higher) expected through early Monday morning. These rainfall totals could cause localized to scattered flooding potential for affected areas. -Travel impacts likely both for the northern half of the state due to the snow/sleet and across the southern half of the state due to the heavy rain/flood potential.
JP
(11:45AM Sunday - 3/6/22) A storm system is set to impact region and state, this afternoon through midday Monday. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Summary... Model guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement regarding many aspects of this storm system, thus little to no change to most of the forecast was needed with this update. The one change that was made, was to increase severe t'storm probabilities across far Southern Illinois, upgrading to a scattered (level 3) severe t'storm risk. This change was made due to increasing confidence. A storm system will develop across the Southern Plains during the day today, with it then tracking through the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday morning, and eventually into the Northeast by Monday night. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Wintry (Snow/Sleet) Aspect Forecast...
This Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Snow/Sleet Event: Precipitation in the from of a snow/sleet/rain mix will move into Northwest and Western Illinois later this evening or early tonight. With colder air filtering in on the north side of the storm system, with precipitation will quickly turn to all snow with time across the northern half of the state. Periods of snow will then be possible from transition time, through midday Monday, before ending by early Monday afternoon. Snow will vary in intensity, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times. A transition zone is also expected to set up, from roughly the southern Chicago metro area down into Western Illinois. In the vicinity of this transition zone, precipitation types may vary. Below is the snow/sleet forecast for this event. 
Severe T'Storm Risk/Heavy Rain/Flooding Aspect Forecast...
This Afternoon - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Severe T'Storm Event: The main risk for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across the southern half of the state, this afternoon through Monday morning. As a storm system develops and moves into the region, a warm front will lift northward into the southern half of the state this evening through tonight. This frontal boundary will be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. Additionally, as the storm system moves through and passes the region, a cold front will then move southward across the southern half of the state very late tonight into early Monday morning. This frontal boundary will also be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. In all, periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, this afternoon through Monday morning. An environment will be in place supportive of some severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature low instability of up to 1,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 50's to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 5.5-7.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across the southern half of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats. This Afternoon - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Heavy Rain/Flooding Event: Multiple periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, this afternoon through midday Monday. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times, with widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected in a corridor across Southern Illinois during this period of time, with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the combination of recent heavy rainfall/flooding during mid-late February and the expected rainfall, localized to scattered flooding is expected. Below are the severe t'storm and heavy rain/flooding forecast for this event.
Impacts...
-Snow/sleet accumulation of 1-3" across the northern half of the state, this evening through midday Monday. -An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm threat across the southern half of the state, this afternoon through Monday morning. -Widespread heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state, with a corridor of widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected this afternoon through Monday morning. These rainfall totals could cause localized to scattered flooding potential for affected areas. -Travel impacts likely both for the northern half of the state due to the snow/sleet and across the southern half of the state due to the heavy rain/flood potential.
JP
(10:45PM - 3/5/22) A storm system is expected to impact region and state, Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Summary... Model guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement regarding many aspects of this storm system, thus little to no change to the forecast was needed with this update. A storm system will develop across the Southern Plains during the day on Sunday, with it then tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday morning, and eventually into the Northeast by Monday night. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Wintry (Snow/Sleet) Aspect Forecast...
Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Snow/Sleet Event: Precipitation in the from of a snow/sleet/rain mix will move into Northwest and Western Illinois later Sunday evening or early Sunday night. With colder air filtering in on the north side of the storm system, with precipitation will quickly turn to all snow with time across the northern half of the state. Periods of snow will then be possible from transition time, through midday Monday, before ending by early Monday afternoon. Snow will vary in intensity, but generally light to at times moderate, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times. A transition zone is also expected to set up, from roughly the southern Chicago metro area down into Western Illinois. In the vicinity of this transition zone, precipitation types may vary. Below is the ice forecast for this event. 
Severe T'Storm Risk/Heavy Rain/Flooding Aspect Forecast...
Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Severe T'Storm Event: The main risk for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. As a storm system develops and moves into the region, a warm front will lift northward into the southern half of the state Sunday evening through Sunday night. This frontal boundary will be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. Additionally, as the storm system moves through and passes the region, a cold front will the moves southward across the southern half of the state Monday morning. This frontal boundary will also be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. In all, periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. An environment will be in place supportive of some severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature low instability of up to 1,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across the southern half of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats. Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Heavy Rain/Flooding Event: Multiple periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times, with widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected in a corridor across Southern Illinois during this period of time, with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the combination of recent heavy rainfall/flooding during mid-late February and the expected rainfall, localized to scattered flooding is expected. Below are the severe t'storm and heavy rain/flooding forecast for this event.
Impacts...
-Snow/sleet accumulation of 1-3" across the northern half of the state, Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. -An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm threat across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. -Widespread heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state, with a corridor of widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected. These rainfall totals could cause localized to scattered flooding potential for affected areas. -Travel impacts likely both for the northern half of the state due to the snow/sleet and across the southern half of the state due to the heavy rain/flood potential.
JP
(11:00AM - 3/5/22) A storm system is expected to impact region and state, Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Summary... Over the past several days model guidance has been honing in on the potential for a storm system to affect the region and state, Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. While there has been disagreement within model guidance over the past several days, an overall agreement in a consensus solution is now in place. A storm system will develop across the Southern Plains during the day on Sunday, with it then tracking through the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday morning, and eventually into the Northeast by Monday night. This storm system is expected to produce a swath of accumulating snow/sleet, heavy rainfall with localized to scattered flooding potential, and an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across the region and state during this time.
Wintry (Snow/Sleet) Aspect Forecast...
Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Snow/Sleet Event: Precipitation in the from of a snow/sleet/rain mix will move into Northwest and Western Illinois later Sunday evening or early Sunday night. With colder air filtering in on the north side of the storm system, with precipitation will quickly turn to all snow with time across the northern half of the state. Periods of snow will then be possible from transition time, through midday Monday, before ending by early Monday afternoon. Snow will vary in intensity, but generally light to at times moderate, with snowfall rates of 0.5"+ an hour at times. A transition zone is also expected to set up, from roughly the southern Chicago metro area down into Western Illinois. In the vicinity of this transition zone, precipitation types may vary. Below is the ice forecast for this event. 
Severe T'Storm Risk/Heavy Rain/Flooding Aspect Forecast...
Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Severe T'Storm Event: The main risk for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. As a storm system develops and moves into the region, a warm front will lift northward into the southern half of the state Sunday evening through Sunday night. This frontal boundary will be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. Additionally, as the storm system moves through and passes the region, a cold front will the moves southward across the southern half of the state Monday morning. This frontal boundary will also be a focal point of potential severe t'storm activity. In all, periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. An environment will be in place supportive of some severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature low instability of up to 1,500J/KG, dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across the southern half of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats. Sunday Evening - Monday Afternoon, March 6-7th ~ Heavy Rain/Flooding Event: Multiple periods of rain and t'storms are expected across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times, with widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected in a corridor across Southern Illinois during this period of time, with locally higher amounts possible. Due to the combination of recent heavy rainfall/flooding during mid-late February and the expected rainfall, localized to scattered flooding is expected. Below are the severe t'storm and heavy rain/flooding forecast for this event.
Impacts...
-Snow/sleet accumulation of 1-3" across the northern half of the state, Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. -An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm threat across the southern half of the state, Sunday evening through midday Monday. -Widespread heavy rainfall across the southern half of the state, with a corridor of widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" expected. These rainfall totals could cause localized to scattered flooding potential for affected areas. -Travel impacts likely both for the northern half of the state due to the snow/sleet and across the southern half of the state due to the heavy rain/flood potential.
JP
(9:45AM Saturday - 3/5/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this afternoon through Sunday morning.
Summary... A strengthening storm system will move from the Plains this morning, through the Midwest tonight, and then through the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this afternoon through Sunday morning. With this update we have slightly expanded the isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk a bit further east across Northern and Central Illinois, and have also pulled the sporadic (level 2) severe t'storm risk eastward from Iowa and into portions of Northwest and Western Illinois. We have also increased high wind potential across Northeast Illinois for tonight through early Sunday morning, as confidence has grown in the potential for 50MPH+ wind gusts.
Forecast...
This Afternoon - Saturday Night, March 5-6th ~ High Wind Episode: A strengthening storm system the region will bring a period of high winds to the state, this afternoon through Sunday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 50-70KT and 925MB winds of 40-55KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 925MB, along with strong warm air advection ahead of the storm system and cold air advection behind the storm system, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, wind gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across much of the state, this afternoon through Sunday morning. There will also be a period of time from tonight through early Sunday morning that will feature the potential of 50MPH+ wind gusts across Northeast Illinois. Winds this afternoon into tonight will be southerly, winds from tonight through Sunday morning will be westerly. This Afternoon - Saturday Night, March 5-6th ~ Severe T'Storm Episode: The main risk for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, this evening through later tonight. While a few isolated showers and t'storms have occurred this morning and will continue to be possible into this afternoon across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, the main focus will come later. A line or two of rain and t'storms will develop across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri this afternoon, along and ahead of an advancing cold front. This activity is expected to sweep eastward across much of the state, this evening through early Sunday morning. Ahead of this activity, an environment will be in place supportive of some severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature low instability of up to 1,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm and high wind forecasts for this event.
JP
(9:45PM Friday - 3/4/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
Summary... A strengthening storm system will move from the Plains Saturday morning, through the Midwest Saturday night, and then through the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. With this update we have slightly expanded the isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk a bit further east across Northwest and Western Illinois.
Forecast...
Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, March 5-6th ~ High Wind Episode: A strengthening storm system the region will bring a period of high winds to the state, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 50-70KT and 925MB winds of 40-55KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 900MB, along with strong warm air advection ahead of the storm system and cold air advection behind the storm system, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, wind gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across much of the state, Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Isolated wind gusts of 50MPH+ will be possible across Northern Illinois Saturday night through Sunday morning. Winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night will be southerly, winds from Saturday night through Sunday morning will be westerly. Saturday Afternoon - Saturday Night, March 5-6th ~ Severe T'Storm Episode: The main risk for an isolated severe t'storm risk will exist across portions of Northwest and Western Illinois, Saturday evening through later Saturday night. While a few isolated showers and t'storms will be possible Saturday morning and afternoon across portions of Northwest and Western Illinois, the min focus will come later. A line or two of rain and t'storms will develop across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri this afternoon, along and ahead of an advancing cold front. This activity is expected to sweep eastward across much of Northern and Central Illinois, Saturday evening through later Saturday night. Ahead of this activity, an environment will be in place supportive of some severe t'storm risk with this activity. This environment will feature low instability of up to 1,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across Northwest and Western Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats. Below are the severe t'storm and high wind forecasts for this event.
JP
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