(12:15AM - 12/1/18) Given recent snows and colder temperatures across the state the past several weeks, severe weather is the last thing on the mind of most, but the threat exists Saturday into Saturday night across portions of the state.
A storm system moving through the region will help set the stage for a late season severe weather event across portions of the state. By afternoon a cold from will be sweeping east from Western Missouri into Western and Southwest Illinois. Ahead of this front will be a moderately favorable environment for this time of year. This environment will feature moderate instability (1000-1500 CAPE), moderate moisture (Upper 50's dew points), favorable upper level environment, a nice push of higher lapse rates, and nicely curved hodographs.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the vicinity of the front across portions of Western Missouri, Western and Southwest Illinois during the afternoon. This activity will push northeast across portions of Central and Southern Illinois through the rest of the afternoon and evening, posing a severe threat. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including a tornado threat, given a favorable environment. All of this activity will weaken and the severe threat will end, as it pushes into Northern and Eastern Illinois by early Saturday night.
Below is our latest updated severe threat TAM. You may notice the severe threat extends across some areas impacted with high snowfall totals during the recent blizzard, where snow still exists on the ground.