(11:45AM - 2/23/19) Morning update on the severe weather potential across the state today.
Watching observational trends this morning, it has become evident the severe weather threat is no long as high as it once looked across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois. A large complex of rain and thunderstorms developed early this morning, and has been pushing across portions of Missouri and Arkansas this morning, and is even pushing into the Paducah area now. This activity will help to keep instability, dew points and temperatures in check from what was previously expected. It should be noted that lower instability was previously mentioned as a potential, which could lower the severe threat.
The aforementioned area of rain and t'storms pushing into the Paducah area will push across portions of Southern Illinois through the mid afternoon, before exiting the area. Additional scattered showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the state. The environment in place will still be supportive for a strong to isolated severe t'storm across much of the state this afternoon into early tonight. Hail and wind will be the main threats, with very marginal non-zero tornado potential possible across Central and Southern Illinois, given the dynamics in place with this system.
Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecast for this event.
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