(12:00PM - 5/23/20) A compact and strong disturbance will be moving through the region on today, which will bring a severe t’storm threat to a large portion of the state.
As a strong and compact disturbance is moving through the area, an arc of showers and t’storms has developed across portions of Eastern Iowa, Northwest Illinois and Central Illinois. Some of this activity will strengthen, along with new development being likely this afternoon. All of this activity will then spread eastward across Northern Illinois and portions of Central Illinois, during the afternoon and evening. The environment in place will feature low to moderate instability, good moisture, good shear and good forcing. This will all aide in upwards of a limited severe t’storm threat across Northern Illinois. All modes of severe weather will be possible. Things are being monitored for a potential upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities in future updates. For now we have outlined an elevated risk area in dashed lines, representing where higher severe probabilities could exist, but is conditional.
Additionally, scattered showers and t’storms have developed across portions of Central and Southern Illinois. This activity, along with additional development, will continue to move across these areas through early tonight. Less favorable conditions will exists across these areas...However, upwards of a minimal severe t'storm threat will exist for these areas. Things are being monitored for a potential upgrade in severe t'storm probabilities in future updates, should they be needed.
Below is the severe t’storm forecast for this event.
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