(7:45AM - 3/9/19) A large area of rain and t’storm has started to push into Southern Illinois at this time. This activity is expected to spread across the entire state through morning and afternoon hours. An isolated strong to severe t’storm is possible across Southern Illinois this morning, as a warm front lifts northward.
The chance also exists for an isolated to widely scattered severe t’storm from around mid-day into late this afternoon, across Central and Southern Illinois. This chance will exist with activity embedded within or on the backside of the aforementioned large rain/t’storm shield that will spread across the state, just ahead of the dry slot. The environment in place expected to feature temps and dew points into the low 60’s, good shear, a good flow aloft, but low instability. All modes of severe weather are possible, including a tornado threat across Southern Illinois. Greater destabilization/instability and clearing ahead of the dry slot will likely prevent a greater severe threat.
A high wind threat also exists across the state from this evening into Sunday morning. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon across the state, and then rapidly increase across this evening and early tonight, as the dry slot of the storm system moves in. These high winds will continue overnight and into Sunday morning on the backside of the system, before diminishing with time during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 40-50mph are likely for many areas, with isolated higher gusts possible.
Below are our updated TAM severe weather and high wind forecasts for this event.
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