(11:30PM - 3/8/19) A brief update regarding the severe weather and high wind threat expected across the state for Saturday and Sunday. The previous forecast for the weekend is still on track, with no changes needed at this time...
A large area of rain and t'storms will spread across the state Saturday morning and afternoon. An isolated strong to severe t’storm is possible across Southern Illinois Saturday morning, as a warm front lifts northward. The chance also exists for an isolated to widely scattered severe t’storm from around mid-day into late afternoon Saturday, across Central and Southern Illinois. This chance will exist with activity embedded within or on the backside of the aforementioned large rain/t’storm shield that will spread across the state, just ahead of the dry slot. The environment in place expected to feature temps and dew points into the low 60’s, good shear, a good flow aloft, but low instability. All modes of severe weather are possible, including a tornado threat across Southern Illinois. Greater destabilization/instability and clearing ahead of the dry slot will likely prevent a greater severe threat.
A high wind threat also exists across the state from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Winds will rapidly increase across the state Saturday evening and early night, as the dry slot of the storm system moves in. These high winds will continue overnight and into Sunday morning on the backside of the system, before diminishing with time. Wind gusts of 40-50mph are likely for many areas, with isolated higher gusts possible.
Below are our updated TAM severe weather and high wind forecasts for this event.
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