As some of you may have heard from other sources or even us a few days ago.....it is beginning to look like the first snow of the season and potentially the first accumulating snow of the season will arrive into the Midwest and portions of Illinois early next week. There is also a second system closer to Halloween that will be briefly talked about as well but we are still 5-6 days away from that one...I dig into some initial details and thoughts below...
A fairly potent weather disturbance will be digging south over the weekend across the western CONUS and into the Four Corners region by early Monday morning as you can see in the included image below. This is the going to eject ENE into the plains and eventually in our direction during the day on Monday.
A loop of this occurring can be seen below and how the weather disturbance
A period of broad warm air advection and isotropic winds will aid in precipitation initially developing across the high/southern plains and streaking northeast into the Midwest by afternoon and eventually close to our area on Monday night. The track of this potential snow swath is still several days away so by no means are saying snow or accumulating snow is likely or expected across portions of Illinois, but is becoming a possibility at this stage. If it were to occur, the time-frame for snow across portions of the state would be Monday night into early Tuesday morning. However, will once again state that this is by no means a guarantee, just a possibility as we approach the time-frame. There are mixed signals among the models, some showing the potential for snow across portions of the state, while others keep this potential across Iowa and Wisconsin.
A more zoomed in look of this particular model run can be seen below.....showing precipitation quickly streaking northeast from the plains into our area with snow on the backside.
Beyond that, the forecast gets even more muddled with some model guidance suggesting another system and one that could be quite strong eventually working its way into the Midwest next Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Given we are still 5 days away from this, it is not worth getting into the details but given the amount of cold air that could be in place ahead of this, it is again possible that this system produces a swath of snow across portions of the Midwest, including here in Illinois. Stay tuned for more updates on this second system.....