(12:15AM - 4/14/19) A late season snow event, significant by April standards, is set to start impacting portions of the state in the next several hours...
Model guidance from this evening and tonight has stayed consistent with a further north and snowier solution for this event.
An area of rain is currently spreading northward across Central, and will spread across portions of Northern Illinois later tonight and early Sunday morning. As dynamic and evaporative cooling occurs, and temperatures in the lower levels cool, the north end of this rain shield will mix with and turn to snow across portions of Northern and Central Illinois early Sunday morning. Snow will then be likely in varying intensity from Sunday morning into Sunday evening for the aforementioned areas. A period of heavy snow looks fairly likely as well. An isolated occurrence of thundersnow is also possible given forcing, omega and elevated instability.
An axis of 1-3” of snow is likely from Central Illinois up into Northern Illinois, with a corridor of 3-6" likely within the main snow axis as well. This will be a heavy and wet snow, with greatest accumulations occurring on colder surfaces...such as grass. Additionally, lower snow accumulations are likely in the vicinity of downtown Chicago, due to the urban heat island effect.
Below is our updated TAM snowfall forecast for this event.
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