(9:30PM - 4/29/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.
Observations and model guidance from this afternoon and evening suggest current forecast remains on track, thus no changes needed. Previous forecast below...
A large area of heavy rain and t'storms pushed across much of Northern and Central Illinois from last night into this morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" occurred across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois with this first main round. Some flooding has also been seen in some areas.
With a frontal boundary lingering in the region, multiple disturbances moving through, and high moisture content...Additional periods of heavy rain and t'storms are likely. A second organized and widespread period of heavy rain and t'storms is likely across the state Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Upwards of 1-4" of additional rainfall is likely with this second round activity, with highest totals across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. A third period of more organized heavy rain and t'storms is possible Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Upwards of 1-3" of rain is likely with this third round of activity, with highest totals across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.
Final rainfall totals during this whole multi-day period will likely range upwards of 2-6" in the main axis across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, with totals in excess of at least 1" across just about the whole state. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread moderate to major flood potential is likely.
Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.
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