(8:30PM - 4/10/19) A brief evening update regarding the low end severe weather threat across the state tomorrow. Afternoon and evening model guidance has come in with little change, this no adjustments have been needed from update earlier this afternoon.
In the wake of a few morning showers and isolated t'storms across Northern Illinois, a warm front will rapidly push northward across Central and Northern Illinois during the morning and afternoon. By afternoon a high shear/low CAPE environment will exist. Instability will be low, moisture will be okay and shear will be great.
A broken line of showers and t'storms is expected to develop across Eastern Iowa, Western Illinois and Northwest Missouri during the early afternoon, along an advancing cold front. This activity will quickly sweep across the state during the afternoon and evening, exiting the state before midnight. Given the aforementioned expected environment, an isolated strong to severe t'storm is likely across the state. This best chance for this will exist across Northern Illinois, where slightly better directional shear will likely exist in the vicinity of the warm front. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado...especially in the vicinity of the warm from across Northern Illinois.
Below is our TAM severe weather forecast for this event.
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