(9:30PM - 5/25/21) A storm system will move through the region Wednesday through Friday, bringing the risk for severe t'storms to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through Friday morning.
A storm system will move from the Plains on Wednesday, through the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and eventually the Ohio Valley on Friday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning through Friday morning. Model guidance has been showing this potential for several days, though a large amount of disagreement still exists regarding how the overall event will unfold.
A few potential scenarios are in play for this event, from Thursday morning through Friday morning... However, the most favored solution within model guidance is also preferred solution, given the model support and past history in similar events.
The first focus will be a complex of severe t'storms that originates across the Plains Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This complex is expected to move into the western half of the state by Thursday morning, in a much weaker phase. However, with a marginal environment developing ahead of this complex, there could be some regeneration of activity, which could pose an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.
In the wake of this initial complex, additional severe t'storm are likely to develop out west across Kansas and Missouri Thursday afternoon. This activity will then push eastward, and eventually across Central and Southern Illinois Thursday evening through Friday morning. A marginal environment will still be in place, which will support an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.