(11:30PM - 6/25/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Saturday, bringing periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state through Saturday night.
Multiple disturbances will eject out of the Plains, and push eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through Saturday. These disturbances will bring periods of severe t'storm potential to portions of the state, this through Saturday night. With this update we have upgraded portions of the state to a level 2 severe t'storm risk for Saturday/Saturday night.
An elongated complex of rain and t'storms is ongoing tonight across Northern Indiana, Central Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma. This activity will continue to push east-northeast overnight, affecting much of Northern and Central Illinois. There continues to be an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across the heart of the state for the remainder of tonight. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.
Saturday Morning - Saturday Night...
Areas of isolated to scattered showers and t'storms may be ongoing across portions of Northern and Central Illinois Saturday morning. In the wake of this activity there will be clearing and destabilization. A new round of scattered showers and t'storms will develop Saturday afternoon, spreading across a large portion of the state through Saturday night. The overall environment supportive of a severe t'storm threat will be in place across much of the state. This environment will feature moderate instability of 1,000-3,500J/KG, dew points in the mid 60's to mid 70's, decent shear, decent forcing, and modest lapse rates of 5.0-6.0C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of a an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of the state. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will all be severe weather risks.
Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
Thursday Morning - Thursday Night...
An initial complex of showers and t'storms spread across a large portion of the state Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Another large complex of showers and t'storms developed later Thursday afternoon and evening across Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois. This alrge complex then spread across much of the state, Thursday evening through Friday morning. Along the way, some severe t'storms occurred across portions of Western and Southwestern Illinois. Damaging winds, small hail and isolated tornadoes occurred with this activity.