(12:00PM - 5/16/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.
This afternoon through tonight...
A complex of showers and t'storms has been ongoing this morning across portions of Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. This activity has regenerated and strengthened, becoming severe. This renewed complex of showers and t'storms will likely push southeast during the afternoon and evening, along an instability gradient that exists in the vicinity of the Illinois/Indiana border. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this activity.
In the wake of the aforementioned activity, additional isolated shower and t'storm development will be possible across Iowa, Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois this afternoon and evening, along an advancing cold front and remnant outflow boundary. The expected environment in place across these areas will feature high instability, good moisture and good shear. As another disturbance moves into the region during the afternoon, it looks possible that there will be enough forcing to overcome a cap in place. At this time will forecast isolated coverage during the afternoon and evening, becoming more widespread by early tonight and continuing overnight. Given the aforementioned environment expected, isolated severe t'storms are possible. All modes of severe weather are possible, including an isolated tornado threat early on.
Friday morning through night...
It looks likely that there will be several periods of showers and t'storms across portions of Northern and Central Illinois from Friday morning through Friday night. An isolated strong to severe t'storm threat will exist with each round of activity. Wind and hail will be the main threats.
It should be noted that a severe t'storm threat will likely extend beyond Friday night, on into Sunday, for portions of the state. Additional information regarding the potential on each of those days will be discussed in later updates.
Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.
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