Thur-Sun, May 16-19th Severe Weather Threat Update #4

(11:30AM - 5/17/19) A frontal boundary lingering in the area, several disturbances moving through the region, and the ejection of a main storm system...will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state Thursday through Sunday.

Multiple rounds of severe t'storms were seen across much of Northern and Eastern Illinois Thursday morning through night. Hail was the most common and widespread occurrence, though isolated high/damaging winds were seen as well.

Today through night...
Areas of rain and isolated t'storms have been ongoing this morning across much of Northern Illinois. Additional periods of rain and isolated t'storms will be possible across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois through this evening. Most of this activity will be north of a warm front in place across the region, which extends across Central Illinois. With some elevated instability in place, an isolated strong to severe t'storm is possible. Hail would be the main threat should any storm reach those levels.

Saturday morning through night...
Weakening areas of showers and scattered t'storms will be possible across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois mid Saturday morning into the afternoon. It looks plausible at this time that some clearing and destabilization will occur between and in the wake of said earlier activity, which would allow regeneration or new development of scattered showers and t'storms during the afternoon across the aforementioned areas and in adjacent states to the west. This activity will then push northeast across much of the state, though in scattered fashion, into Saturday evening and night. An environment in place featuring low instability, decent moisture and good shear will aide in an isolated severe t'storm threat for some areas. Wind and hail will be the biggest threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A severe threat may also continue into Sunday for portions of the state, with this being further discussed in future updates.

​Below is our updated TAM severe t'storm forecast for each day of the event.

​JP

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