We continue to eye the potential for multiple rounds of widespread rains and the threat of heavy rain, really beginning tomorrow night and through the day on Saturday. There will be a chance for some rain across the northern half of the state late tonight but the real threat begins later tomorrow. This will be brought on by several weather disturbances moving over a frontal boundary which will be the focal point for several chances of widespread rain.
I dig into the details below, including timing and who could see the most rain from this...
As mentioned above, showers and maybe some isolated thunderstorms will push east and southeast late tonight and into tomorrow morning across a good portion of the state but we aren't expecting any heavy rain or flooding from this first appetizer of rain. The loop below runs from 7pm tonight through 7am tomorrow morning.
By Thursday afternoon and evening, a more formidable weather disturbance will push through the plains and into the Midwest, sparking the next round of rain and potential thunderstorms. As you can see below, this looks to be a more impressive and widespread area of rainfall as it moves through and out of Missouri late tomorrow night and into central and southern Illinois. Rainfall amounts with this wave of rain could easily reach a half inch to an inch in spots, especially across the southern half of the state. This loop runs from 3pm Thursday through 9am on Friday, showing the progression of that area of rain from the plains into the Midwest and our area.
The biggest potential in all of this and the one with the most question marks is the system that could move through the Midwest Friday night and through the entire day on Saturday. Now, there remains some difference among model guidance with the handling of this system where some are further south and weaker and some (like the one below) are further north and stronger. The north and stronger solutions then lead to heavier rain amounts and further north across the state as well. This will have to be watched closely as a solution like the one shown would have some potential for not only heavy rain but also some backside snow....yes, I said that four letter word we all love and adore.
Amounts are obviously still in question and up in the air so everything right now is more so just potential on what could fall so don't take these numbers below too seriously just yet. We will continue to send out updates as we get closer and model guidance begins to fine tune thoughts on both amounts and the location of heaviest rainfall.
Our first TAM for the upcoming heavy rain event...
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