(9:45PM - 4/29/19) A Disturbance pushing through the region, combined with a favorable environment, will aide in bringing a severe weather threat to portions of the state on Tuesday...
Model guidance continues to remain consistent overall regarding the scenario expected to unfold for Tuesday, thus no changes are needed at this time. Previous forecast below...
Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms pushing across portions of Southern and Central Illinois Tuesday morning may pose an isolated strong to severe threat. This activity will be north of a northward moving warm front, expected to push across portions of Southern and Central Illinois later Tuesday morning and afternoon. South of this warm front an environment will be in place featuring good instability, good moisture and good shear levels. There is a conditional threat for scattered showers and t'storms to develop in the vicinity of the warm front during the afternoon. Should this occur, and given the environment in place, activity would pose a severe threat with all modes of severe weather possible. As mentioned, this is a conditional threat, with some capping expected and enough forcing needed to overcome it. Should this threat look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities will be needed.
In additional to the aforementioned conditional threat, clusters of rain and t'storms will push across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Tuesday evening into night. With the previously mentioned environment in place, some severe activity is likely. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this activity as well.
Below is our updated TAM severe weather threat forecast.
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