(11:30AM - 11/10/20) A storm system moving through the region on today will bring a low end threat for severe t'storms to much of Northern and Central Illinois.
With this update we have upgraded severe t'storm probabilities across much of Northern and Central Illinois, to level 2 severe t'storm risk (limited). The overall thinking from previous updates is unchanged...And the upgrade in probability is due to increasing confidence.
A broken line of showers and t'storms has developed this morning along an advancing cold front, across Eastern Iowa and Missouri. This line is expected to rapidly push northeastward across much of the state, this afternoon through early tonight. Upwards of a level 2 (limited) severe t'storm threat is expected to exist with this activity, across much of Northern and Central Illinois. A strengthening storm system will be moving through the region, accompanied by a strong 110KT jet streak. This will be juxtaposed to reservoir of dew points in the low 60's, great shear, and great forcing...The only negating factor is limited insatiability, less than 1000J/KG. This high shear/low instability environment will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat...with damaging winds, small hail and an isolated tornado possible.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this morning - tonight.