(11:30AM - 11/26/19) The same storm system that will bring high winds to the state tonight and Wednesday, will also bring a low end threat for strong and severe t'storms to the state this evening into early Wednesday morning.
With this update we have expanded the low end chance for severe t'storms to the rest of the state. Otherwise, no additional changes were needed from the previous update.
One or more broken lines of showers and t'storms will develop along and ahead of a cold front, across portions of Iowa and Missouri, later this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this activity an environment will be in place featuring 50-60 degree dew points and <1,000 J/KG CAPE. On the other end of the spectrum, shear will be on the high end of the scale. In other words, this is a low moisture/instability and high shear setup. As the broken lines of showers and t'storms race northeastward across the state tonight, isolated strong to severe t'storms will be possible. By no means does this look like a significant or widespread severe weather event. However, given the time of year and holiday travel will be underway for some, it is noteworthy. Damaging/high winds will be the greatest threat with this activity. High winds are already expected outside of showers and t'storms, but this activity could bring enhanced wind potential. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given there will be some instability in place, coupled with the strong shear. It is possible that portions of the state may need to be upgraded to higher severe probabilities in later updates.
Below is the TAM severe t'storm forecast for this event.