(11:45AM Tuesday - 4/12/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.
With this update little to no changes were needed, as the going forecast is on track based on the current information available.
A storm system will track from the Central Plains today, through the Midwest on Wednesday, and then into Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk to the state and portions of the region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.
Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Night, April 13th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
A complex scenario is expected on Wednesday, with the main threat for an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk will exist across the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Along a cold front, a left over broken line of rain and t'storms from Tuesday night will be ongoing across portions of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri early Wednesday night. This activity is expected push eastward through the morning. As anther disturbance pushes northeastward through the region, some regeneration and new development of showers and t'storms expected along the cold front from Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon, across portions of Wisconsin, Northwest/West-Central/Southwest Illinois and Missouri. This activity will then sweep northeastward across the state, from midday Wednesday into early Wednesday night. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature low to moderate instability of 500-2,500J/KG, dew points in the low to mid 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.0-8.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk across the state. All modes of severe weather will be possible, which includes; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
It should be noted that there are two things to watch that could impact the quality of the severe t'storm risk... The timing of the cold frontal passage is one thing to watch, as earlier timing would limit the severe risk across portions of the state, and slower timing would be more favorable for the severe risk. Also, a disturbance moving up through the Ohio Valley early in the day on Wednesday could hinder the overall severe risk should it track further north or slower.
-An isolated to scattered (levels 1-3) severe t'storm risk is in place across the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.