(9:30PM - 7/14/20) A disturbance is expected to move through the region on Wednesday, bringing the threat for severe t'storm to portions of the state.
A disturbance is expected to move through the region, Wednesday into Wednesday night. As mentioned in our previous updates, there had been two potential scenarios in play for Wednesday. As we have continued to get closer to the day of the potential, a few changes occurred, and a middle-ground between both original possible scenarios is now expected.
A broken line of weakening scattered showers and t'storms from tonight across Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri will move into portions of Northwest and Western Illinois later tonight and into Wednesday morning. Some of this activity will likely fester, while other portions weaken. This will lead to widespread scattered precipitation and cloud debris through the day across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, leading to a more marginal environment. However, further south there will be better clearing and destabilization across Southern and portions of Central Illinois, leading to a somewhat better environment. Additional new scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Western and Southwest Illinois during the afternoon. This new activity may develop into a cluster, and along with re-generated early day activity, push east-northeast across the state, Wednesday afternoon and evening. Upwards of a limited severe t'storm threat is expected across Central and Southern Illinois, where the aforementioned better environment will exits. Trends are being monitored for the potential need to upgrade severe t'storm probabilities across portions of Southwest Illinois. Across Northern Illinois, upwards of a minimal severe t'storm threat will exist, due to the aforementioned more marginal environment expected. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado will be the mains threats.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for Wednesday morning - Wednesday night.
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