(11:30AM - 7/15/20) A disturbance moving through the region today will bring the chance for severe t'storms to portions of the state, through tonight.
A disturbance is currently moving through the region, and will continue to through tonight. As mentioned in our previous updates, there had been two potential scenarios in play for today. However, we got closer to today a few changes occurred, and a middle-ground between both original possible scenarios looked more likely and is now unfolding across the region.
A broken line of weakening scattered showers and t'storms has been affecting portions of Northwest and Western Illinois, from last night through this morning. Some of this activity will likely fester, while other portions weaken. This will lead to widespread scattered precipitation and cloud debris through the day across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, leading to a more marginal environment. However, further south there will be better clearing and destabilization across Southern and portions of Central Illinois, leading to a somewhat better environment. Additional new scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop across portions of Missouri, Western and Southwest Illinois during the afternoon. This new activity will likely develop into a line/cluster, and along with re-generated early day activity, push east-northeast across the state, this afternoon into early tonight. Upwards of a limited severe t'storm threat is expected across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, where the aforementioned better environment will exits. Across Northern and other portions of Central Illinois, upwards of a minimal severe t'storm threat will exist, due to the aforementioned more marginal environment expected. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado will be the mains threats.
Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this afternoon - tonight.
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