Wed, June 19th Severe T'Storm Threat Update #1

​(11:45AM - 6/18/19) A disturbance pushing through the region will bring a severe t'storm threat to portions of the state on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Wednesday morning into Wednesday night...
​A few isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will move into Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois Wednesday morning, as an approaching disturbance moves in. Ahead of this disturbance, an environment featuring low to moderate instability, good moisture and great shear will be in place during the afternoon across portions of Central and much of Southern Illinois. The development of additional showers and t'storms are likely during the afternoon across Missouri and Southwest Illinois. This activity will then push eastward across much of Central and Southern Illinois into early Thursday night. This activity will pose a widely scattered severe t'storm threat, with all modes of severe weather being possible. An upgrade to higher severe probabilities is possible if future updates, pending better agreement in model guidance and higher confidence in clearing and destabilization. Additionally, scattered showers and t'storms will also be likely across much of Northern Illinois, during the day and night on Wednesday. No severe t'storms are expected with this activity.

Below is our updated TAM severe t’storm forecast for Wednesday/night.

​JP

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