(1:00AM - 2/6/19) After historic cold last week and the recent snowy pattern, severe weather is probably the last thing on everyone's mind. However, we're now quickly pushing through early February, inching closer to spring and severe weather season. The first taste of severe weather will come over the next day or so for Southern Illinois.
There will be two main periods in which a few severe storms will be possible. The first period will be this morning (Wednesday morning). As the first disturbance is pushing through the region, only a marginal environment will be in place, featuring low-end elevated instability and a spring like air-mass with high dew points creeping up into far Southern Illinois. Thus, a few isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with hail and wind being the main threats.
The second period to watch is this evening (Wednesday evening) into Thursday morning. During this time a second disturbance and the main storm system will be pushing through the region. Ahead of the main system, a warm front will be lifting north across Southern Illinois. South of this front, a spring like air mass will be in place, featuring temperatures and dew points into the 60's. Instability will be on the low side, but good shear and a strong upper level flow will compensate a bit. Thus, isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms will be likely across Southern Illinois at times from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats...though and isolated tornado can't be ruled out, given a marginally favorable wind profile, which shows with a slightly curved hodograph.
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