(1:00PM - 2/6/19) Update on the severe weather threat across Southern Illinois through Thursday morning...
The first period of isolated strong to severe weather threat was this morning across Southern Illinois.
The second period to watch is this evening into Thursday morning. During this time a second disturbance and the main storm system will be pushing through the region. Ahead of the main system, a warm front will be lifting north across Southern Illinois. South of this front, a spring like air mass will be in place, featuring temperatures and dew points into the 60's. Instability will be on the low side, but good shear and a strong upper level flow will compensate a bit. Thus, isolated to widely scattered severe t'storms will be likely across Southern Illinois at times from this evening into Thursday morning. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats...though and isolated tornado can't be ruled out, given a marginally favorable wind profile, which shows with a slightly curved hodograph.
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