Arguably the biggest holiday of the year is fast approaching - now within two weeks - and the question many already want to know is what are the chances "I" see a white Christmas?
Well, like all things weather related the answer isn't easy this far away. Lets take a look at some things below.
First, what are the statistical odds you'll see a white Christmas. The official definition is 1" of snow on the ground.
Those of you in the north stand a greater chance, for obvious reasons.
There are a couple ways a white Christmas can be accomplished. Snow already on the ground, or fresh snow falling. If only life were a movie it would happen each year right?
We've had some snow lately, but we've had some rain. Lets take a look at the approximate snowpack that remains across the state.
Spotty at best, and snow across the southern areas typically doesn't stick around too long.
On the bad news side of things, all indications point to a mild pattern coming ahead. Much deserved, but will eradicate the existing snowpack except for those piles in mall parking lots that Jeep owners love to park on to justify their mods. Temps are generally looking to average 5-10 degrees above the norms in the week leading up to Christmas. Many of the global models agree in this overall pattern.
The CPC has even issued a very warm outlook for this upcoming period, and for good reason.
So based on all this, it is unfortunately not looking too good. There appears to be little in the way of precip during this time and what does fall will probably take on the form of rain given the milder temperatures. Any snow that falls during the lows overnight will quickly melt thereafter.
The glim of hope:
Just before the holiday, this pattern is currently forecast to dramatically flip to a west coast troughing pattern - such a pattern typically promotes an active storm track.
We can see the period on the models, but unless youre new here (welcome, by the way) you should know how extremely unreliable they are 7 days away let alone 14.
If you're a snow lover youll want to root for today's 6z GFS run, which buries much of the state ON Christmas Day.
Did I mention the models are unreliable and flaky at this range? Are you reading or just looking for pretty pictures? The quickest way to get on ISC's naughty list is to buy into this stuff when other pages share it with no real explanation other than "its just one model run."
Sorry if I just got your hopes up, but here is the same models run just 6hrs later at 12z (6am)
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand here is the most recent run at 18z (12pm)
This is why you should not EVER buy into a facebook page, or any sort of outlet posting a big snowfall map. Because just a few hours later it can vanish. Right now there is zero reason to believe any of these runs are more accurate than the other. The fact the models do hint at a pattern change with an active storm track around the holiday will offer hope for those wanting a white Christmas.
Otherwise, unfortunately right now I would say its not looking too good. Of course we here at ISC will keep you posted as we get closer!
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