Winter Storm Becoming More Likely Early-Mid Week (Mon-Wed, Feb 24-26th) Update #1

(6:30PM - 2/22/20) While the weather has generally been quiet for the past week or so, and a push of mild temperatures is occurring across the state this weekend...Winter isn't over yet, as a winter storm is likely to affect the region during the early to middle portion of this upcoming week.

Potential has been growing for a winter storm to affect the region during the early to middle portion of next week, with it looking more and more likely as time has gone on. Model guidance has been honing in on this period for the past several days, some some signs of a potentially major winter storm being possible for the state or very nearby.

As has been the case all of this winter, even though there is high support for a winter storm to affect the region during this period, there has been disagreement regarding track and strength of the storm system...as well as where and how much accumulating snow will occur. However, as time has gone on the range of disagreement has narrowed overall among model guidance. This will be yet another complex scenario, with a few main waves expected to interact with each other during this period. How exactly the waves interact will help determine the outcome of the storm system. The support for more and organized interaction has been a clear trend over the past day or so, which would lead to a stronger and more organized storm system for the region...possibly significant.

As of this moment there is high agreement in a storm system moving through the region Monday-Wednesday...with high agreement on accumulating snow occurring across at least portions of the state during this time, with Northern Illinois being most favored at this time. Where the main snow axis will set up and how much snow will fall will be determined in later updates, given some spread of scenarios at this time.

​JP

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