3/29-3/30 Fri-Sat Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms To Lead To Significant Rainfall Amounts Tonight/Overnight

As we have stated in the last few articles, the Friday/Saturday period has always been the one that looked the most threatening to produce widespread heavy rains. It continues to look that way as we head into the afternoon and evening hours today as the area of low pressure system organizes and moves into and through the Midwest. This "event" will have the potential to produce significant rainfall amounts across portions of the state between this evening and early tomorrow morning, possibly upwards of two inches in spots.  

​I dig into the latest details below....

As we go through the day today, an large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will organize to our west across the plains and then move into portions of Iowa and Missouri by the mid-late afternoon hours, as you can see below. The image is valid at 4pm and is still showing nearly all of Illinois still dry. 

Now, looking at a evolution of how this system plays out, this loop runs from 1pm this afternoon through 7am tomorrow morning, showing a large area of rain and thunderstorms moving east and ENE across a good portion of the state. Timing wise it looks like the brunt of the heavy rain and thunderstorm threat will come during the evening hours and through the overnight, with the northern half of the state seeing an end to precipitation by the early morning hours on Saturday. 

By early tomorrow morning, the area of low pressure will have moved east of Illinois and into southern lower Michigan which will mean the end of the rain threat across portions of the state behind the cold frontal passage. Warm and humid conditions will continue across southern Illinois however as you can see below where temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 50's ahead of the frontal passage. This will mean a continuation of rain across downstate while high pressure and more dry air moves in further north. 

This is just one models output of potential rainfall amounts and could be overdone somewhat but there is good agreement on widespread moderate to heavy rain and potential thunderstorms which would only increase that threat for significant rain totals. Some areas could see upwards of 1-2" of rain tonight and overnight from this system. Stay tuned for continued updates as the area of low pressure and associated rain move into Illinois later today and more so this evening. 

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