4/10-4/11 (Wed/Thurs) Say It Ain't Snow?? Closely Watching System Next Week That Could Bring Snow To Illinois
Now before we get into this post...we cannot stress enough that this is just potential right now and nothing more than that. We are not calling for accumulating snow or anything yet as we are still several days away (~5 days or so) from this system possibly impacting the Midwest. But....we figured given the surprisingly good agreement among numerical model guidance at this stage, we felt this post would at least spell out the potential so in case there is sticking snow next week, people aren't caught off guard. Could this easily go away and miss all of Illinois completely?? It sure could but it also could deliver a very rare accumulating snow event...
I dig into some details of this setup below, including what we know, what we don't know as well as timing it out at this stage of the game...
As we go through the first of next week, model guidance is in good agreement on a potent system coming ashore the west coast and eventually making its way eastward over the following days. It is forecast to reach the Rockies during the early part of Wednesday as you can see in the image below. What happens after this remains to be seen as this is when models begin to diverge somewhat on the track and strength of this upper level wave and this will eventually have big implications down the road on if we do see snow from this storm system. Each of the red lines is a possible track this system could take.
Another favorable aspect about this **snow potential** is that there will be a sufficient amount of cold air to the north across the northern Midwest, northern Great lakes and up into southern and southeastern Canada, shown below. Also, there is going to be plenty of warmth and moisture to the south and this is what could be fed northward into the system, potentially helping it to strengthen as it enters our region.
As mentioned above, the track of this storm system is still way up in the air and this will have big implications on how far south the cold air could get along with **IF** anyone in Illinois receives accumulating snow. Some model guidance do in fact have a favorable track for sticking snow across portions of the state while other models have it further north, keeping any snow threat up in Wisconsin. The track of the surface low (many different options) shown below will be key and the thing to watch over the weekend and into next week.
Below is just one models take and this can and will most likely change over the coming days....as of right now, the place to watch for any potential snow accumulations out of this system would be across northern Illinois. Any shift north or south in this track could change that current thinking.
AGAIN....don't take anything for certain yet as we are still 5 days away and want to continue to stress this is only POTENTIAL right now and nothing is set in stone.
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