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(6:30PM - 1/31/20) A weak and fast moving disturbance will bring a period of light precipitation to portions of the state, through Saturday morning.
A weak and fast moving disturbance brought a period of light snow to portions of Northern and Central Illinois, last night into this morning. A dusting of snow occurred in some areas.
A second weak and fast moving disturbance is currently pushing into the region, and will move through the region into Saturday. Along with this disturbance will come an area of light precipitation, which will spread across Northern and portion of Central Illinois, this evening through Saturday morning. Precipitation will be mainly snow across Northern Illinois, with a mix of snow and rain possible across Central Illinois. Minor/nuisance snow accumulation of a dusting is likely across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, with amounts closer to 1" possible across portions of North-Central Illinois.
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Feb 3rd-6th Multiple Wintry Systems Could Affect Illinois With Accumulating Snow/Ice Next Week1/31/2020
Model guidance continues to waffle around and trend towards different solutions/outcomes next week and we want to continue to stress the uncertainty of this time period with nothing close to being set in stone. What was once looking like one single system is now beginning to look like **multiple systems** over a 3-4 day period affecting the Midwest and here in Illinois with wintry precipitation, including the threat of accumulating snow.
Even though model guidance is still struggling with what happens later next week, there remains good agreement on our main trough and upper level low (which is still out over the Pacific Ocean) coming ashore California on Sunday afternoon and evening, as shown below. After that it will slowly make its way into the Four Corners region but beyond that is when model guidance is having fits on outcomes. Some guidance is now suggesting multiple waves or systems will come northeast into the Midwest out of the southern plains with several rounds of precipitation across the region but timing this at this stage is still full of uncertainty.
As mentioned above, this is continuing to trend to multiple waves or systems affecting our area next week. Taking an ensemble forecast approach, the three images below are all possible areas of low pressure at the mentioned time period on the image. This is showing the agreement on an area of low pressure being in that area at that time. The first one as of now looks to be Monday night, the second system late Tuesday night and the 3rd and one with probably the highest potential for something significant is Wednesday night into Thursday. Again, we want to stress that this is now looking like several systems moving through the region from later Monday and through portions of Thursday.
We will continue to slowly pin down specifics over the upcoming weekend and heading into next week but no specifics will be given or thrown out yet given all the continued uncertainties on model guidance. Our latest broad thinking follows below outlining an area of potential accumulating snow and ice with things to note on the side....stay tuned for updates over the weekend.
(11:00AM - 1/31/20) A weak and fast moving disturbance will bring a period of light precipitation to portions of the state, late this afternoon through Saturday morning.
A weak and fast moving disturbance brought a period of light snow to portions of Northern and Central Illinois, last night into this morning. A dusting of snow occurred in some areas.
A second weak and fast moving disturbance is currently pushing into the region, and will move through the region into tomorrow. Along with this disturbance will come an area of light precipitation, which will spread across Northern and portion of Central Illinois later this afternoon through Saturday morning. Precipitation will be mainly snow across Northern Illinois, with a mix of snow and rain possible across Central Illinois. Minor/nuisance snow accumulation of a dusting is likely across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, with amounts closer to 1" possible across portions of Northwest and North-Central Illinois.
We are continuing to watch a potential system that is still well out over the Pacific Ocean today that could eventually lead to spinning up a winter storm across the central part of the U.S. and eventually our area in the Midwest later Monday and potentially into Thursday next week. There is the potential for accumulating snow and ice with this system across portions of Illinois but outside of mentioning that, it is too early to get into specifics.
By later Sunday afternoon and evening of this weekend, our potential wintry system will be onshore California with its sights set on the Four Corners Region. Beyond that though, there remains a good about of disagreement among model guidance as to what happens after that.
Again, using an ensemble forecast like in yesterday's article, we can see that there is good agreement on low pressure development (a storm system) on the lee side of the Rockies and coming out into the southern plains. Beyond that though, a storm track is not even close to being set in stone which is why there are still a wide spectrum of possible outcomes/solutions.
Given the model differences at this time, we are not going to get into specifics outside of outlying an area that could see accumulating wintry precipitation, including snow and ice during the time period shown below. Stay tuned for continued updates as we get closer.
We are still 5-7 days away from a storm system potentially impacting the Midwest and here in Illinois but over the last few days, model guidance has continued to show a storm system in some fashion traversing through the Midwest in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame of next week. As mentioned we are still a ways away from this but there is the potential for wintry weather with this, including the threat of accumulating snow. Remember though **nothing is set in stone and we are simply mentioning the potential is there**...........Some initial thoughts and information follow below...
By Sunday morning, model guidance has our system of interest coming ashore California with sights set on the Four Corners region by early next week. What happens after that remains in question with details a long ways from being sorted out but there is decent agreement right now on some sort of weather system entering the western U.S. the latter half of this weekend.
By Monday evening next week, model guidance is suggesting there will be a frontal boundary laid out from southwest to northeast from the southern plains into the Midwest. Along this front, an area of several areas of low pressure or smaller weather systems could move along this front, producing swaths of precipitation (potentially in the form of accumulating snow) across the Midwest during the early to middle portion of next week. As you can see on the image below, every "L" on the map is one possible location of an area of low pressure. This is called an ensemble forecast and is used to show the spread of uncertainty at this range.
Outside of outlying an area that could see wintry weather, including accumulating snow next week, we will not go into any further details in this article and continue to watch model guidance come in over the coming days. Stay tuned though for updates, especially if the potential begins to increase for something substantial across the region next week.
(8:30PM - 1/28/20) A weakening storm system moving through the region will bring the chance for wintry precipitation to portions of the state, tonight through Wednesday evening.
No significant changes with this update, but did trim back on the areal extent of minor snowfall accumulations, given trends in model guidance and real-time observations.
A storm system is expected to continue to move from the Southern Plains and into the Southern Mississippi Valley, tonight into Wednesday. This storm system has been on a weakening trend with time, but will still bring a period of light precipitation to portions of the state tonight through Wednesday evening. An area of precipitation will first enter Southern Illinois later tonight, in the form of a mix. Snow will be the predominant precipitation type in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor, with a mix south of there, to mostly rain down near Paducah. This period of precipitation will continue into Wednesday evening across Southern Illinois, before ending from west to east. Minor snowfall accumulation of a dusting to 1.5" will be likely across portions of Southern Illinois.
A period of flurries or light snow showers may be possible across portions of Central Illinois as well, however little to no accumulation is expected. Dry air and a weakening disturbance will prevent anything of note. Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event. 
(12:15PM - 1/28/20) A weakening storm system moving through the region will bring the chance for wintry precipitation to portions of the state, tonight through Wednesday night.
A storm system is expected to eject out of the Rockies, and move through the Southern Plains and Southern Mississippi Valley today and Wednesday. This storm system will be in a weakening trend with time, but will still bring a period of light precipitation to portions of the state tonight through Wednesday night. An area of precipitation will first enter Southern Illinois tonight, in the form of a mix. Snow will then spread into Western and Southwest Illinois later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Snow will then be possible through Wednesday evening across portions of Central and Southern Illinois, before ending from west to east. Across far Southern Illinois, a mix will be likely for the duration of this event. Minor snowfall accumulation of a dusting to 1.5" will be likely across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.
Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event. 
(8:30PM - 1/27/20) A weakening storm system moving through the region will bring the chance for wintry precipitation to portions of the state, Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
A storm system is expected to eject out of the Rockies, and move through the Southern Plains and Southern Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm system will be in a weakening trend with time, but will still bring a period of light precipitation to the state Tuesday night through Wednesday night. An area of precipitation will first enter Southern Illinois Tuesday night, in the form of a mix. Snow will then spread into Western and Southwest Illinois later Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Snow will then be possible from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, before ending from west to east. Minor snowfall accumulation of a dusting to 1.5" will be likely across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.
Below is the TAM snowfall forecast for this event. 
(3:00PM - 1/27/20) Post storm wrap up regarding the recent Wed-Fri, January 22-25th winter storm that affected the state. During this period, a long duration event occurred, with low to moderate snowfall accumulations across a large portion of the state.
Several distinct periods of precipitation occurred across the state during this multi-day event, which has been broken down in the recap to follow. Marginal thermal profiles and surface temperatures during this period kept snowfall totals in check...from being much higher, as is usual mid-winter setup. Additionally, due to the fact that accumulating snow came in several periods, melting occurred between these said period due to the aforementioned marginal surface temperatures.
Wednesday afternoon-Thursday afternoon...
An initial area of generally light snow moved across much of Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois, Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon. Upwards of a dusting to 2" of snow occurred across much of Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois during this time. Thursday afternoon-Friday morning... A renewed push of precipitation spread across the state Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Precipitation was predominately snow across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois...With mostly rain across Northeast, Eastern and Southwest Illinois. Upwards of 1-3” occurred during this time across Southwest, Western and Northwest Illinois...with amounts tapering to a dusting east of these areas.
Friday morning-Friday evening...
While light snow showers and flurries occurred across Northwest, Western and Southwest Illinois, with light rain showers and drizzle having occurred across Northeast, Eastern and Southwest Illinois. Friday evening-Saturday afternoon... Yet another renewed push of precipitation developed, and pivoted across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. Light to moderate snow was common during this time, with brief periods of heavy snow. Upwards of 2-5" of snow occurred across a good portion of Northern Illinois during this time, with isolated higher amounts across far North-Central Illinois near the Illinois/Wisconsin border. Amounts tapered across Central Illinois on up into the Chicago area, to a dusting to 3".
Final multi-day cumulative storm snowfall totals of 2-6" occurred across much of Northern, Central and Southwest Illinois, with locally higher amounts of 6-8" across North-Central Illinois, near the Rockford area. Snowfall amounts tapered to a dusting to 2" from Chicago down into Eastern and Southern Illinois.
Below is a map representation of final snow and rain totals across the state and adjacent areas. 
(10:30PM - 1/24/20) A brief update regarding the wither storm that continues across the state tonight...
A large are of precipitation changed from rain to snow across Northern Illinois this evening. Light to moderate snow is now ongoing for most affected areas, with upwards of a dusting to 2" of snow accumulation so far tonight for many areas. This area of snow is expected to pivot through Northern Illinois over night, and into Saturday morning. Additional snowfall accumulation of up to a few to a couple of inches in likely during that time. Final snowfall totals from tonight/tomorrow alone will be 2-5", which when combined with the 1-2" that occurred Wed-Thur, with make for final storm snowfall totals of 3-6"...with locally higher amounts possible. 
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