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Wed, March 30th Severe T'Storm & High Wind Event Update #3

3/30/2022

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(9:00AM Wednesday - 3/30/22) A storm system moving through the region through Thursday, will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this morning through this evening.

Summary...
A strengthening storm system tracked across the Central Plains yesterday, and will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley today, and then into Ontario Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this morning through this evening.
Forecast...
​This Morning - This Evening, March 30th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
​The main threat for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through this evening. A broken line of rain and t'storms that developed Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas tracked northeastward last night. This activity is now pushing into western portions of the state this morning. This activity will continue to spread northeastward across much of the state, this morning through this evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature very low instability of 100-1,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's to near 60, good shear, good forcing, and mediocre lapse rates of 4.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the severe weather threats.

​This Morning - This Evening, March 30th ~ High Wind Event:
As the storm system organizes and strengthens as it moves through the region today, a period of high winds are expected across portions of the state this morning through this evening. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 50-75KT and 925MB winds of 35-60KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 900MB, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, southerly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through this evening.
Impacts...
​-An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk is in place across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through this evening.
​-High winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through this evening.
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JP
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Wed, March 30th Severe T'Storm & High Wind Event Update #2

3/29/2022

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(10:00PM Tuesday - 3/29/22) A storm system will move through the region through Thursday, bringing a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Summary...
A strengthening storm system will move from the Central Plains tonight, through the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and then into Ontario Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
​Forecast...
​
Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, March 30th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
​The main threat for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. A broken line of rain and t'storms developed this afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas. This activity is expected to further organize as it pushes northeastward tonight, eventually making it into western portions of the state by early to mid morning Wednesday. This activity will continue to spread northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature very low instability of 100-1,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's to near 60, good shear, good forcing, and mediocre lapse rates of 4.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, March 30th ~ High Wind Event:
As the storm system organizes and strengthens as it moves through the region on Wednesday, a period of high winds are expected across portions of the state Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 50-75KT and 925MB winds of 35-60KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 900MB, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, southerly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
​​Impacts...
​-An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk is in place across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
​-High winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
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JP
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Wed, March 30th Severe T'Storm & High Wind Episode Update #1

3/29/2022

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(9:00AM Tuesday - 3/29/22) A storm system will move through the region today through Thursday, bringing a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Summary...
A strengthening storm system will move from the Central Plains today, through the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and then into Ontario Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Forecast...
​
Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, March 30th ~ Severe T'Storm Episode:
​The main threat for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. A line of rain and t'storms is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front associated with the storm system, across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. This activity will then push northeastward Tuesday night, eventually making it into western portions of the state by early to mid morning Wednesday. This activity will continue to spread northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature very low instability of 100-1,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's to near 60, good shear, good forcing, and mediocre lapse rates of 4.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, March 30th ~ High Wind Event:
As the storm system organizes and strengthens as it moves through the region on Wednesday, a period of high winds are expected across portions of the state Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 45-75KT and 925MB winds of 40-60KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 900MB, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, southerly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
​Impacts...
​-An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk is in place across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
​-High winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
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JP
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Wed, March 30th Severe T'Storm & High Wind Episode

3/28/2022

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(10:00PM Monday - 3/28/22) A storm system will move through the region Tuesday through Thursday, bringing a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Summary...
A strengthening storm system will move from the Central Plains on Tuesday, through the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and then into Ontario Canada on Thursday. This storm system will bring a severe t'storm risk and a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Forecast...
​
Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, March 30th ~ Severe T'Storm Episode:
​The main threat for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk will exist across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. A line of rain and t'storms is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front associated with the storm system, across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. This activity will then push northeastward Tuesday night, eventually making it into western portions of the state by early to mid morning Wednesday. This activity will continue to spread northeastward across much of the state, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. The environment expected to be in place ahead of this activity as it pushes across the state, will be favorable for some severe t'storm threat across portions of the state. The environment that will be in place will feature very low instability of 100-1,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's to near 60, good shear, good forcing, and mediocre lapse rates of 4.0-6.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated severe t'storm risk (level 1) across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois. Damaging winds an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

​Wednesday Morning - Wednesday Evening, March 30th ~ High Wind Event:
As the storm system organizes and strengthens as it moves through the region on Wednesday, a period of high winds are expected across portions of the state Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 45-75KT and 925MB winds of 40-60KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 900MB, which will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, southerly wind gusts of upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
Impacts...
​-An isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk is in place across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
​-High winds gusts upwards of 35-50MPH to 45-60MPH are expected across a large portion of Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
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JP
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Fri-Sat, March 25-26th High Wind Event Recap

3/26/2022

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(5:15PM Saturday - 3/26/22) A brief recap regarding the Fri-Sat, March 25-26th high wind and convective squalls event that impacted the region and state during this time.

Overview...
A storm system impacted the region Friday, March 25th through Saturday, March 26th. This storm system brought a high wind event to portions of the region and state during this time. The weak and fast storm system moved from Southern Canada Thursday night, then through the Great Lakes on Friday, and eventually into the Northeast on Saturday.
Summary...
​
Friday Afternoon - Saturday Morning, March 25-26th ~ High Wind Event:
A weak and fast moving storm system tracked through the region Friday into Saturday, bringing a period of high winds to portions of the state Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 30-50KT and 925MB winds of 25-45KT, translated across the region. The combination of adequate/deep mixing up to at least 700MB, strong cold air advection and high lapse rates aided in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, northwesterly synoptic wind gusts of 35-55MPH occurred across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

In addition to windy conditions, convective squalls moved across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday afternoon into Friday night. Some of these squalls produced graupel (Small hail) and damaging high winds...In addition to rain, snow and ice pellets.
Wrap Up...
-A period of synoptic high winds occurred across Northern and Central Illinois, Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Wind gusts of 35-55MPH occurred during this period.
-Convective squalls moved across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday afternoon through Friday night. Some of this activity produced graupel (Small hail) and damaging high winds.
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JP
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Fri-Sat, March 25-26th High Wind Episode Update #2

3/25/2022

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(11:00AM Friday - 3/25/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this afternoon through Saturday morning.

Summary...
A weak and fast moving storm system that originated in Southern Canada last night will move through the Great Lakes today, and then into the Northeast on Saturday. This storm system will bring a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, this afternoon through Saturday morning.
Forecast...
​
This Afternoon - Saturday Morning, March 25-26th ~ High Wind Episode:
A weak and fast moving storm system will move through the region today through Saturday, bringing a period of high winds to portions of the state this afternoon through Saturday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 30-50KT and 925MB winds of 25-45KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 850MB, strong cold air advection and high lapse rates will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, northwesterly wind gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through Saturday morning.

In addition to windy conditions, rain/snow showers/squalls are expected this afternoon into tonight across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Some of the squalls may be convective and strong enough to produce lightning/thunder and graupel.
​​Impacts...
-High winds gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, this afternoon through Saturday morning.
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JP
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Fri-Sat, March 25-26th High Wind Episode Update #1

3/24/2022

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(10:15PM Thursday - 3/24/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.

Summary...
A weak and fast moving storm system will move from Southern Canada, through the Great Lakes Friday, and then into the Northeast on Saturday. This storm system will bring a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.
​Forecast...
​
Friday Morning - Early Saturday Morning, March 25-26th ~ High Wind Episode:
A weak and fast moving storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing a period of high winds to portions of the state Friday morning through early Saturday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 30-50KT and 925MB winds of 25-45KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 850MB, strong cold air advection and high lapse rates will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, northwesterly wind gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.

In addition to windy conditions, rain/snow showers/squalls are expected Friday afternoon into Friday night across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. Some of the squalls may be convective and strong enough to produce lightning/thunder and graupel.
​
​Impacts...
-High winds gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.
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JP
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Fri-Sat, March 25-26th High Wind Episode

3/24/2022

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(11:45AM Thursday - 3/24/22) A storm system moving through the region will bring a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.

Summary...
A weak and fast moving storm system will move from Southern Canada, through the Great Lakes Friday, and then into the Northeast on Saturday. This storm system will bring a period of high winds to portions of the state and region, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.
​Forecast...
​
Friday Morning - Early Saturday Morning, March 25-26th ~ High Wind Episode:
A weak and fast moving storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing a period of high winds to portions of the state Friday morning through early Saturday morning. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet (850MB) of upwards to 30-50KT and 925MB winds of 25-45KT, will be in place. Adequate mixing is anticipated at least up to 850MB, strong cold air advection and high lapse rates will aide in transporting higher winds to the surface. During this period, northwesterly wind gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across a large portion of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.
Impacts...
-High winds gusts of 35-50MPH are expected across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Friday morning through early Saturday morning.
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JP
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Fri, March 18th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #2

3/18/2022

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(11:45AM Friday - 3/18/22) A storm system moving through the region today will bring a severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois, through this evening.

Summary...
Little to no change was needed with this update, as the previous forecast is on track.

​A storm system moved from the Southern Plains last night, and will track through the mid-Mississippi Valley by this afternoon, and eventually into the Southern Great Lakes by Saturday morning. This storm system is expected to bring a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state and region today.
​Forecast...
This Afternoon - This Evening, March 18th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
​The main risk for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across Southern Illinois, through this evening. An initial round of rain and t'storms has been spreading across a large portion of the state this morning. As the main storm system moves through the region, a warm front has lifted northward through the southern half of the state this morning, putting the southern half of the state in the warm sector and in an environment favorable for some severe t'storm risk. Additional scattered showers and t'storms are developing from the area of low pressure on southward along an advancing cold front, across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. This activity, along with further expected development, will then move northeastward across Southern Illinois, through early this evening. The environment that will be in place will feature low instability of 250-1,500J/KG, dew points in the mid to upper 50's good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.5-8.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.
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​​Impacts...
​-An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm threat across Southern Illinois, through this evening.
JP
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Fri, MArch 18th Severe T'Storm Episode Update #1

3/17/2022

0 Comments

 
​(9:45PM Thursday - 3/17/22) A storm system will move through the region on Friday, bringing a severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois Friday morning through Friday evening.

Summary...
Little to no change was needed with this update, as the previous forecast is on track.

​A storm system will track from the Southern Plains tonight, then into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon, and eventually into the Southern Great Lakes Saturday morning. This storm system is expected to bring a severe t'storm risk to portions of the state and region on Friday.
Forecast...
Friday Morning - Friday Evening, March 18th ~ Severe T'Storm Event:
​The main risk for an isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm risk will exist across Southern Illinois, Friday morning through Friday evening. An initial round of rain and t'storms will spread across the state very late tonight on through Friday morning. As the main storm system moves through the region, a warm front will lift northward through the southern half of the state Friday morning, putting the southern half of the state in the warm sector and in an environment favorable for some severe t'storm risk. Scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop from the area of low pressure on southward along an advancing cold front, across Eastern Missouri, Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. This activity will then move northeastward across Southern Illinois, from late Friday morning through early Friday evening. The environment that will be in place will feature low instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points in the mid 50's to low 60's, good shear, good forcing, and good lapse rates of 6.5-8.5C. This environment will be supportive of upwards of an isolated to sporadic severe t'storm risk (levels 1-2) across Southern Illinois. Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado will be the severe weather threats.

Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event.
Picture
​Impacts...
​-An isolated to sporadic (levels 1-2) severe t'storm threat across Southern Illinois, Friday morning through Friday evening.
JP
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