(1:00PM - 4/30/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week continue to bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

A large area of heavy rain and t'storms pushed across much of Northern and Central Illinois from Sunday night into Monday morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" occurred across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois with this first main round. Some flooding has also occurred in some areas.

Scattered areas of rain pushed across portions of Northern and Central Illinois last night into this morning. Currently a large area of heavy rain and t'storms is pushing across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois. Up to 1-3" of rain has fallen with this activity in portions of Western Illinois and south of the Quad Cities. These totals will be seen across much of the affected area, as this activity continue to push across Northern and Central Illinois this afternoon. Several additional complexes of rain and t'storms are expected to push across the state this evening into tomorrow morning. Additional rainfall totals in excess of 1" are expected across much of the state between now and tomorrow morning. A large corridor of rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely across the heart of the state, with locally higher amounts of 3-5" likely. Some flooding is already occurring with this activity, and will become more widespread as additional periods of rain and t'storms occur.

​Another period of more organized heavy rain and t'storms is possible Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Upwards of 1-3" of rain is likely with this third round of activity, with highest totals across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.

​Final rainfall totals during this whole multi-day period will likely range upwards of 2-6" in the main axis across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals in excess of at least 1" will be seen across just about the whole state. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread moderate to major flood potential is likely. Widespread elevated river/creek/stream levels are likely, widespread field flooding is likely and some street flooding is likely in usual prone areas.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast for this event.

JP

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(11:15AM - 4/30/19) Midday update regarding the severe weather threat across portions of the state from now into tonight...

Currently a complex of rain and t'storms is pushing into Western Illinois. Some of this activity has been strong, with sub-severe hail reported. It is likely that this complex will continue to push east-northeast, eventually across much of Central Illinois during this afternoon and evening. As the environment ahead of this complex improves, some storms may become severe, with wind and hail being the main threats. 

​Further south, a warm front is currently located along I-64 in Southern Illinois. This warm front has been slowly pushing northward, and will continue to through the day, making it to around and north of I-70 this afternoon. The environment near and south of this warm front will feature good instability, good moisture and good shear. It is looking likely that isolated to scattered showers and t'storms will develop across portions of Central and Southern Illinois this afternoon, in the vicinity of the warm front. This activity will likely post a severe threat, with all modes of severe weather possible, including a few tornadoes.

Finally, other complexes of rain and t'storms that develop across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri this afternoon will likely push into and across portions of Southern Illinois this evening into tonight, with some severe threat being possible. Wind and hail would be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

​Below is our updated TAM severe weather forecast for this event.

JP

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(9:45PM - 4/29/19) A Disturbance pushing through the region, combined with a favorable environment, will aide in bringing a severe weather threat to portions of the state on Tuesday...

Model guidance continues to remain consistent overall regarding the scenario expected to unfold for Tuesday, thus no changes are needed at this time. Previous forecast below...

​​Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms pushing across portions of Southern and Central Illinois Tuesday morning may pose an isolated strong to severe threat. This activity will be north of a northward moving warm front, expected to push across portions of Southern and Central Illinois later Tuesday morning and afternoon. South of this warm front an environment will be in place featuring good instability, good moisture and good shear levels. There is a conditional threat for scattered showers and t'storms to develop in the vicinity of the warm front during the afternoon. Should this occur, and given the environment in place, activity would pose a severe threat with all modes of severe weather possible. As mentioned, this is a conditional threat, with some capping expected and enough forcing needed to overcome it. Should this threat look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities will be needed.

In additional to the aforementioned conditional threat, clusters of rain and t'storms will push across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Tuesday evening into night. With the previously mentioned environment in place, some severe activity is likely. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this activity as well.

Below is our updated TAM severe weather threat forecast.

JP

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(9:30PM - 4/29/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

Observations and model guidance from this afternoon and evening suggest current forecast remains on track, thus no changes needed. Previous forecast below...

A large area of heavy rain and t'storms pushed across much of Northern and Central Illinois from last night into this morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" occurred across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois with this first main round. Some flooding has also been seen in some areas.

​With a frontal boundary lingering in the region, multiple disturbances moving through, and high moisture content...Additional periods of heavy rain and t'storms are likely. A second organized and widespread period of heavy rain and t'storms is likely across the state Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Upwards of 1-4" of additional rainfall is likely with this second round activity, with highest totals across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. A third period of more organized heavy rain and t'storms is possible Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Upwards of 1-3" of rain is likely with this third round of activity, with highest totals across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.

Final rainfall totals during this whole multi-day period will likely range upwards of 2-6" in the main axis across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, with totals in excess of at least 1" across just about the whole state. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread moderate to major flood potential is likely.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.

JP

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(1:45PM - 4/29/19) A Disturbance pushing through the region, combined with a favorable environment, will aide in bringing a severe weather threat to portions of the state on Tuesday...

Isolated to scattered showers and t'storms pushing across portions of Southern and Central Illinois Tuesday morning may pose an isolated strong to severe threat. This activity will be north of a northward moving warm front, expected to push across portions of Southern and Central Illinois later Tuesday morning and afternoon. South of this warm front an environment will be in place featuring good instability, good moisture and good shear levels. There is a conditional threat for scattered showers and t'storms to develop in the vicinity of the warm front during the afternoon. Should this occur, and given the environment in place, activity would pose a severe threat with all modes of severe weather possible. As mentioned, this is a conditional threat, with some capping expected and enough forcing needed to overcome it. Should this threat look more likely, higher severe weather probabilities will be needed.

In additional to the aforementioned conditional threat, clusters of rain and t'storms will push across portions of Central and Southern Illinois Tuesday evening into night. With the previously mentioned environment in place, some severe activity is likely. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this activity as well.

Below is our TAM severe weather threat forecast.

JP

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​(1:00PM - 4/29/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

A large area of heavy rain and t'storms pushed across much of Northern and Central Illinois from last night into this morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" occurred across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois with this first main round. Some flooding has also been seen in some areas.

​With a frontal boundary lingering in the region, multiple disturbances moving through, and high moisture content...Additional periods of heavy rain and t'storms are likely. A second organized and widespread period of heavy rain and t'storms is likely across the state Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Upwards of 1-4" of additional rainfall is likely with this second round activity, with highest totals across portions of Northern and Central Illinois. A third period of more organized heavy rain and t'storms is possible Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Upwards of 1-3" of rain is likely with this third round of activity, with highest totals across portions of Central and Southern Illinois.

Final rainfall totals during this whole multi-day period will likely range upwards of 2-6" in the main axis across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, with totals in excess of at least 1" across just about the whole state. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread moderate to major flood potential is likely.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.

JP

​Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! ​www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 

​To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 ​​​​

(6:00AM - 4/29/19) Short term morning update regarding the heavy rain/flooding threat across portions of the state...

A large area of heavy rain is ongoing this morning across much of Northern and portions of Central Illinois. In excess of 1” of rain has already occurred across portions of the Quad Cities area. Heavy rain will continue across Northern and Central Illinois into this afternoon. Rainfall totals from this first disturbance and push of rain will likely be up to 1-3” across much of Northern and Central Illinois.

​A full updated is expected around midday today.

JP

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(10:30PM - 4/28/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

The only significant change this update is to move the corridor of higher flood threat northward, as model guidance from this afternoon and evening has shifted the axis of heaviest rainfall amounts to the north.

Several periods of rain and t'storms will be likely across the state from tonight through Thursday night, as several disturbances push across the region. The most widespread and organized periods of rain and t'storms during this period will be tonight into Monday, Monday night into Wednesday and then again on Thursday. It looks likely that much of the state will receive in excess of 1" of rain during the period, with a large corridor of rainfall totals in excess of 2" likely across much of Northern and Central Illinois. Within this axis, an area of 2-5" rainfall totals are likely into portions of Northern and Western Illinois. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, widespread minor to moderate flood potential is likely...with a corridor of higher flood threat possible.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.

JP

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​To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 ​​​

(9:00AM - 4/28/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

Several periods of rain and t'storms will be likely across the state from tonight through Thursday night, as several disturbances push across the region. The most widespread and organized periods of rain and t'storms during this period will be tonight into Monday and Monday night into Wednesday. It looks likely that much of the state will receive in excess of 1" of rain during the period, with a large corridor of rainfall totals in excess of 2" likely across the heart of the state. Within this axis an area of 2-5" rainfall totals are quite possible. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, minor to moderate flood potential is possible.

Below is our updated TAM flood forecast.

JP

​Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! ​www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 

​To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 ​​

(10:00PM - 4/27/19) Multiple disturbances pushing through the region this upcoming week will bring several rounds of rain and t'storms to the state, leading to high rainfall totals and flood potential.

Several periods of rain and t'storms will be likely across the state from Sunday night through Thursday night, as several disturbances push across the region. The most widespread and organized periods of rain and t'storms during this period will be Sunday night into Monday and Monday night into Wednesday. It looks likely that much of the state will receive in excess of 1" of rain during the period, with a large corridor of rainfall totals in excess of 2" likely across the heart of the state. Within this axis, 2-4" rainfall amounts are quite possible. Given it has been overall wet the past few months across portions of the state, combined with the expected heavy rainfall totals, minor to moderate flood potential is possible.

Below is our first TAM flood forecast.

JP

​Please consider becoming a Patreon as a way to say thanks and support us for what we do! ​www.patreon.com/user?u=16598980 

​To receive text alerts via our in-telligent groups text ISC to 900900 ​