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(12:30PM - 4/30/21) A storm system moving through the region on Saturday will bring a period of high winds to the state, from Saturday morning through Saturday night.
Forecast... A storm system moving through the region on Saturday will bring a period of high winds to the state, Saturday morning through Saturday night. High winds aloft, characterized by a low level jet of 40-60KT, will be in place. Mixing depths will support wind gusts of 30-45MPH across Northern Illinois, Saturday morning through Saturday night. Below is the high wind forecast for this event. 
JP
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(10:15AM - 4/28/21) Multiple disturbances will continue to move through the region through Thursday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois through Thursday morning.
Summary... With a trough in place across the Western US, multiple disturbances have been and will continue to eject out into the Central US, moving through the region through Thursday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to Central and Southern Illinois through Thursday morning. Model guidance and real time observations continue to support the going forecast, with little change needed.
Forecast...
Today/Tonight/Thursday Morning... A frontal boundary is expected to slowly push southward across the state today through Thursday morning, with multiple disturbances expected to move through region. Several waves of showers and t'storms are expected to move across Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through Thursday morning. An environment featuring instability of 500-2,000J/KG, dew points of 64-71, good forcing and good shear will be in place across Central and Southern Illinois. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) to widely scattered (level 2) severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois, this morning through Thursday morning. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Below is the severe t'storm forecast for this event. 
Summary...
Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning... Scattered showers and isolated t'storms moved across much of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While there had been a risk for an isolated severe t'storm across Northern and Central Illinois, so severe t'storms occurred.
JP
(9:00PM - 4/27/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region through Thursday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state tonight through Thursday morning.
Summary... With a trough in place across the Western US, multiple disturbances will eject out into the Central US, moving through the region through Thursday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, tonight through Thursday morning. Model guidance and real time observations continue to support the going forecast, with little change needed.
Forecast...
Tonight/Wednesday Morning... A cold front expected to slide southward across Northern tonight, with a disturbance also expected to move through. Isolated to widely scattered showers and t'storms associated with this disturbance are possible across Northern and portions of Central Illinois tonight into Wednesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,500-3,000J/KG, dew points of 58-65, good forcing good shear and even mid level lapse rates around 6-8C is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and portions of Central Illinois, tonight into early Wednesday morning. Hail will be the main threat. Wednesday/Wednesday Night... A frontal boundary is expected to be draped across Central and Southern Illinois on Wednesday, with multiple disturbances expected to move through. Several waves of showers and t'storms are expected to move across Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 64-71, good forcing good shear. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) to widely scattered (level 2) severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(11:45AM - 4/27/21) Multiple disturbances will move through the region today through Wednesday, bringing a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, tonight through Wednesday night.
Summary... With a trough in place across the Western US, multiple disturbances will eject out into the Central US, moving through the region today through Wednesday. These disturbances will bring a severe t'storm risk to much of the state, tonight through Wednesday night. Model guidance has been firm on an isolated to widely scattered severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois for Wednesday and Wednesday night. However, within the past 12-18 hours an isolated severe t'storm risk also appears likely across Northern and Central Illinois, tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Forecast...
Tonight/Wednesday Morning... A cold front expected to slide southward across Northern and Central Illinois tonight and a disturbance will be moving through. Scattered showers and t'storms associated with this disturbance across Iowa and Missouri this evening and early tonight will spread across Northern an Central Illinois overnight, with some additional development possible as well. This activity will then continue through Wednesday morning. An environment featuring instability of 2,000-3,000J/KG, dew points of 58-65, good forcing good shear and even mid level lapse rates around 8C is expected to be in place. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) severe t'storm risk across Northern and Central Illinois, tonight into early Wednesday morning. Hail will be the main threat. Wednesday/Wednesday Night... A front is expected to be draped across Southern Illinois on Wednesday, with multiple disturbances expected to move through. Several wave of showers and t'storms are expected to move across Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. An environment featuring instability of 1,000-2,500J/KG, dew points of 64-71, good forcing good shear. Given the aforementioned environment expected, this will set the stage for an isolated (level 1) to widely scattered (level 2) severe t'storm risk across Central and Southern Illinois, Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Below is the severe t'storm forecasts for this event.
JP
(9:45PM - 4/19/21) A storm system moving through the region on Tuesday will bring a minor late season snowfall to a large portion of the state, early Tuesday morning through early Tuesday night.
Summary... A storm system will eject out from the Plains tonight, then moving eastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and then into the Eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Model guidance continues to be in generally good agreement regarding the location of the snowfall axis and snowfall amounts. The main change this update was to re-introduce the possibility for a dusting of snow to Northeast Illinois, where model guidance is now honing in on the potential for convective and trough enhanced snows.
Forecast...
An area of precipitation will spread across a large portion of the state, early Tuesday morning through early Tuesday night. While much of this precipitation will fall as snow across the state, the very front end of the precipitation early Tuesday morning and the very back-edge of precipitation Tuesday evening, could be rain or a rain/snow mix. Snow will be of varying intensity during the event, though generally being light to moderate, possibly even mixing with rain at times, given the marginal thermal environment. Given it is mid-late April (Mild ground temps and sun angle of issue) and air temperatures will be marginal, greatest snowfall impacts and accumulations will be on colder surfaces, such as grass. Additionally, across Northeast Illinois, there is the potential for scattered convective rain/snow showers in the vicinity of a trough axis expected to develop on Tuesday. What's expected... A main axis with snowfall totals of 1-3" are expected across Central Illinois, with amounts tapering north and south of this main axis. Below is the snow forecast for this event. 
JP
(11:45AM - 4/19/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region on Tuesday, bringing a late season snowfall to the heart of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out from the Plains tonight, then moving northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and then into the Eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Model guidance has generally favored a southerly track for this event the past few days. There were a few northern outlier models within guidance, but they have caved to the southern solution. With this update, slight adjustments were made to the location of the snowfall axis, but no significant changes were needed.
Forecast...
An area of snow will spread across a large portion of the state, early Tuesday morning through Tuesday early night. Snow will be of varying intensity during this time, though generally being light to moderate, possibly even mixing with a bit of rain when veyr light. Given it is mid-late April (Mild ground temps and sun angle of issue) and air temperatures will be marginal, greatest snowfall impacts and accumulations will be on colder surfaces, such as grass. What's expected... Snowfall totals of 1-3" are across Central Illinois, with amounts tapering north and south of this main axis. Below is the snow forecast for this event. 
JP
(9:45PM - 4/18/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region on Tuesday, bringing a late season snowfall to the heart of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out from the Plains Monday night, then moving northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and then into the Eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Model guidance continues to be in some disagreement regarding the track and strength of this storm system, however a southern solution continues to be heavily favored...Thus, continues to be reflected in our forecast. No significant changes were needed with this update.
Forecast...
As a cold front pushes southward across Northern Illinois on Monday, some frontogenetic precipitation is likely behind the front Monday morning through Monday night across Northern and portions of Central Illinois. This precipitation will likely be in the form of rain, and perhaps a rain/snow mix. The main focus will be on Tuesday... An area of snow will spread across much of Northern and Central Illinois, early Tuesday morning through Tuesday early night. Snow will be of varying intensity during this time, though generally being light to moderate. Given it is mid-late April (Mild ground temps and sun angle of issue) and air temperatures will be marginal, greatest snowfall impacts and accumulations will be on colder surfaces, such as grass. What's expected... Snowfall totals of 1-3" are across Central Illinois, with amounts tapering north and south of this main axis. Below is the snow forecast for this event. 
JP
(10:30AM - 4/18/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region on Tuesday, bringing an accumulating snowfall to the heart of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out from the Plains Monday night, then moving northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and then into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Model guidance continues to be in some disagreement regarding the track and strength of this storm system, and thus also differ in placement and amounts of snowfall. Have taken a middle ground approach on placement of snowfall axis for the first snowfall forecast, and went on lower end for snowfall amounts.
Forecast...
As a cold front pushes southward across Northern Illinois on Monday, a bit of frontogenetic precipitation is likely behind the front Monday afternoon through Monday night across Northern Illinois. This precipitation will likely be a mix of rain and snow. The main focus will be on Tuesday... An area of snow will spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Tuesday early morning through Tuesday early night. Snow will be of varying intensity during this time, though generally being light to moderate. Given it is mid-late April and temperatures will be marginal, greatest snowfall impacts and accumulations will be on colder surfaces, such as grass. What's expected... Snowfall totals of 1-3" are across Central Illinois, with amounts tapering north and south of this main axis. Below is the snow forecast for this event. 
JP
(8:00PM - 4/17/21) A storm system is expected to move through the region on Tuesday, bringing the potential for an accumulating snow to the heart of the state.
Summary... A storm system will eject out from the Plains Monday night, then moving northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and then into the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Model guidance has been showing this potential for days. There is spread among possible solutions at this time, however the spread has narrowed with time...with an accumulating snow event looking increasingly possible across the heart of the state.
Forecast...
An area of snow will spread across portions of Northern and Central Illinois, Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Snow will be of varying intensity during this time, though generally being light to moderate. Given it is mid-late April and temperatures will be marginal, greatest snowfall impacts and accumulations will be on colder surfaces, such as grass. 
JP
(11:45AM - 4/9/21) A storm system will move through the region today through Sunday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Southern Illinois this afternoon through Saturday morning, and windy conditions to portions of the state Saturday morning through Sunday morning.
Summary... A storm system will move through the Midwest and Great Lakes today through Sunday, bringing an isolated severe t'storm threat to Southern Illinois this afternoon through Saturday morning, and windy conditions to portions of the state Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Model guidance with time the past several days has come in with a farther northwest and stronger solution for this storm system, which will to the isolated severe t'storm risk across Southern Illinois and the windy conditions across portions of the state.
Forecast...
A marginal environment is expected to develop across Southern Illinois, ahead of an approaching developing storm system. A few isolated showers and t'storms are expected to develop along a stationary boundary across Southern Illinois, and will move across portions of Southern Illinois this afternoon. With the marginal environment in place, an isolated strong to severe t'storm will be possible...However, the main focus is a bit later, as the developing storm system moves through. Scattered showers and t'storms will develop across portions of Missouri, Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma this afternoon, in the vicinity of a warm front and cold front. This activity will then push northeastward, eventually moving across Southern Illinois from this evening through Saturday morning. Given the aforementioned marginal environment that is expected to be in place, a level 1 (isolated) severe t'storm risk will be possible across Southern Illinois, from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will all be threats with any severe t'storm. In addition to the severe t'storm threat, windy conditions are expected across portions of the state, Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Wind gusts of 25-45MPH will be likely across a good portion of the state during this period, aided by a steadily developing and strengthening storm system, prior to it occluding and weakening. Below is the severe t'storm and wind forecasts for this event.
JP
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